- Over 7 days
- ▲ +4
- Since 23 Oct.
- ▲ +4
- Rank
- 15th of 193 countries tied
- Updated
- 9 Nov.
A dangerous country for a visitor, but an economic and social situation without notable strain.
Safety 78 + Economy 2 ÷ 2 = 40
The overall score is the average of the two detailed scores below. Each score runs from 0 (nothing to report) to 100 (extreme situation): calm under 30, tension from 30 to 59, crisis from 60. The calculation is fixed and the same for every country: no AI gives its opinion.
Safety on the ground
78/100 CrisisWhat it measures: the danger for someone travelling to the country right now (crime, terrorism, unrest, disasters, epidemics).
What it does not measure: the state of the economy, daily life for residents or long-term political stability.
| Criterion | Today | Scale | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian and US travel advisories | “Avoid all travel” · United States: level 4 of 4 | average of both advisories, from 0 (normal precautions) to 70 (do not travel) | 70/70 |
| Ongoing disaster (GDACS) | no alert | orange alert 8, red 15 | 0 |
| Reported epidemic (WHO, 30 days) | none | common disease 6, severe disease 10 | 0 |
| Internet outage (IODA) | Major internet outage (IODA) | outage 5, major outage 8 | 8 |
| In today's news | not cited | World 2, Geopolitics 4 | 0 |
In short: the score comes from travel advisories (70 points out of 70); added on top: Major internet outage (IODA) (+8).
Where the data comes from: Global Affairs Canada (travel advice) · US Department of State (travel advisories) · GDACS (UN and EU disaster alerts) · WHO (Disease Outbreak News, 30 days) · IODA, Georgia Tech (internet outages) · Horizon briefing of the day.
Score based on advisories written for foreign travellers: it does not describe everyday life there.
Economy and society
2/100 CalmWhat it measures: how fragile the country is: public finances, jobs, prices, lender confidence and protest in the streets.
What it does not measure: the danger for a visitor, nor the future: it is neither a forecast nor financial advice.
| Criterion | Value | Scale | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public debt · what the state owes, relative to a year of output | 51% of GDP | 0 up to 60% of GDP, 15 from 150% of GDP | 0/15 |
| Budget deficit · what the state spends beyond its revenue | −3.8% of GDP | 0 from −3% of GDP, 10 at −8% of GDP or below | 1.6/10 |
| Growth · increase in output | 4.4% | 0 from 2%, 10 at −2% or below | 0/10 |
| Unemployment · share of the labour force without a job | not available for this country | 0 up to 5%, 10 from 15% | — |
| Inflation · price rise over a year | 2.1% | 0 up to 3%, 15 from 30% | 0/15 |
| Spread over Germany · extra cost of borrowing over 10 years, a sign of lender confidence | euro area only: not counted for this country | 0 up to 0.5 pt, 20 from 3 pts | — |
| Protests and strikes · in the news over the last 7 days | 0 events in our briefings GDELT: too little data | average of two measures: our briefings (1 event = 6 points, 5 or more = 20) and the share of protests in GDELT (0 up to 2%, 20 from 10%) | 0/20 |
In short: what weighs most is no criterion in particular. Not weighing: public debt, growth, inflation and protests.
Where the data comes from: IMF, World Economic Outlook (2026 forecasts): debt, deficit, growth, inflation, unemployment · ECB, 10-year government bond yields (September 2026), euro area only · GDELT Project (protest events, 7 days) · Horizon briefings of the last 7 days.
Score calculated on 5 of 7 criteria: the points obtained are scaled to 100.
Converging signals this week
2 independent sources point to this country in the last 7 briefings.
- Internet (IODA) internet traffic down to 10% of normal (2 d)
- Risk score Horizon risk score up from 70 to 78/100
Background : travel advisory: do not travel
Before you go
At a glance
- Safety score
- 78/100 Crisis ▲ +8 over 7 days ▲ +8 vs a month ago
- Official advisories
- Canada: Avoid all travel
- United States: level 4 of 4 (do not travel)
- Weighing right now
- Major internet outage (IODA) +8
- Economy and society
- 2/100 Calm
Weighing most: no criterion in particular
Official sources
Horizon is not an official service.
Other countries: Africa
Today's risk score, highest first.
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