12 October 2026 World Yemen
Migrant shipwreck off Djibouti: 139 dead
A boat linking Djibouti to Yemen capsized near Obock, with 305 people on board according to the UN. At least 139 migrants died, including 15 children, and 84 are missing.
Overall score
12/100
Calm
- Since 23 Oct.
- = stable
- Rank
- 102nd of 193 countries tied
- Updated
- 28 Oct.
No particular danger for a visitor, and an economic and social situation without notable strain.
Safety 23 + Economy 0 ÷ 2 = 12
The overall score is the average of the two detailed scores below. Each score runs from 0 (nothing to report) to 100 (extreme situation): calm under 30, tension from 30 to 59, crisis from 60. The calculation is fixed and the same for every country: no AI gives its opinion.
Safety on the ground
23/100 CalmWhat it measures: the danger for someone travelling to the country right now (crime, terrorism, unrest, disasters, epidemics).
What it does not measure: the state of the economy, daily life for residents or long-term political stability.
| Criterion | Today | Scale | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian and US travel advisories | “Exercise a high degree of caution (with regional advisories)” · United States: level 2 of 4 | average of both advisories, from 0 (normal precautions) to 70 (do not travel) | 23.3/70 |
| Ongoing disaster (GDACS) | no alert | orange alert 8, red 15 | 0 |
| Reported epidemic (WHO, 30 days) | none | common disease 6, severe disease 10 | 0 |
| Internet outage (IODA) | none | outage 5, major outage 8 | 0 |
| In today's news | not cited | World 2, Geopolitics 4 | 0 |
In short: the score comes from travel advisories (23.3 points out of 70); no ongoing event adds to it.
Where the data comes from: Global Affairs Canada (travel advice) · US Department of State (travel advisories) · GDACS (UN and EU disaster alerts) · WHO (Disease Outbreak News, 30 days) · IODA, Georgia Tech (internet outages) · Horizon briefing of the day.
Score based on advisories written for foreign travellers: it does not describe everyday life there.
Economy and society
0/100 CalmWhat it measures: how fragile the country is: public finances, jobs, prices, lender confidence and protest in the streets.
What it does not measure: the danger for a visitor, nor the future: it is neither a forecast nor financial advice.
| Criterion | Value | Scale | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public debt · what the state owes, relative to a year of output | 28.7% of GDP | 0 up to 60% of GDP, 15 from 150% of GDP | 0/15 |
| Budget deficit · what the state spends beyond its revenue | −1.6% of GDP | 0 from −3% of GDP, 10 at −8% of GDP or below | 0/10 |
| Growth · increase in output | 5.6% | 0 from 2%, 10 at −2% or below | 0/10 |
| Unemployment · share of the labour force without a job | not available for this country | 0 up to 5%, 10 from 15% | — |
| Inflation · price rise over a year | 2.3% | 0 up to 3%, 15 from 30% | 0/15 |
| Spread over Germany · extra cost of borrowing over 10 years, a sign of lender confidence | euro area only: not counted for this country | 0 up to 0.5 pt, 20 from 3 pts | — |
| Protests and strikes · in the news over the last 7 days | 0 events in our briefings 0% of GDELT events | average of two measures: our briefings (1 event = 6 points, 5 or more = 20) and the share of protests in GDELT (0 up to 2%, 20 from 10%) | 0/20 |
In short: what weighs most is no criterion in particular. Not weighing: public debt, deficit, growth, inflation and protests.
Where the data comes from: IMF, World Economic Outlook (2026 forecasts): debt, deficit, growth, inflation, unemployment · ECB, 10-year government bond yields (September 2026), euro area only · GDELT Project (protest events, 7 days) · Horizon briefings of the last 7 days.
Score calculated on 5 of 7 criteria: the points obtained are scaled to 100.
Scores over time
Score published since 23 October 2026: the chart fills in day by day.
In the news
October 2026 1 event
September 2026 1 event
13 September 2026 Geopolitics Yemen
Houthis take control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Pro-Iranian Houthi rebels launched a lightning offensive and took control of the Yemeni coast on the Red Sea as well as the strategic island of Mayun (Perim), consolidating their grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Approximately 1,400 Yemenis fled to Djibouti within 24 hours and tens of thousands of people were displaced by the intensification of fighting with government forces.
Other countries: Africa
Today's risk score, highest first.
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