Horizon

Horizon — 13 September 2026

13 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

The last thirty days

World

A ferry fire in the Philippines killed 76 people and several deadly shipwrecks affected Indonesia and Vanuatu this weekend.

Deadly fire on a Philippine ferry

4 sources

Philippines

The death toll from the MV June-Aster ferry fire rose to 76 after the recovery of 41 additional bodies, with 13 people still missing. The fire, which started from an explosion in the hold on Wednesday, spread to the entire vessel within seconds.

Why it matters. This is one of the deadliest maritime disasters in the region in recent months, affecting a large number of Philippine families.

Ferry sinking in Vanuatu, over 30 missing

3 sources

A ferry, the MV Matui, sank off Vanuatu with over 40 passengers and crew members on board who had departed from the island of Santo to Ambae in very rough seas. At least one person died and over 30 people remain missing, with search operations continuing at sea.

Why it matters. Another maritime disaster in the Pacific adding to a series of ferry accidents that occurred the same week in several countries.

Indonesian vessel reported missing, over 100 rescued

4 sources

Indonesia

A passenger ship linking Surabaya to Banjarmasin, carrying over 240 people, lost contact after encountering a storm in the Java Sea. Rescue operations evacuated 103 people, one of whom died, and on Sunday were searching for approximately 140 people still missing.

Why it matters. A third major shipwreck in Asia-Pacific the same weekend, illustrating the vulnerability of regional maritime transport to extreme weather conditions.

Massive protests in Germany against the AfD

2 sources

Germany

Approximately 150,000 people demonstrated on Saturday in around twenty German cities, including Berlin, Hamburg and Munich, to demand the banning of the far-right AfD party, which is about to lead the Saxony-Anhalt region.

Why it matters. The scale of the mobilization reflects growing concern over the electoral progress of the far right in a major European country.

Forest fire on the Croatian island of Brac

Croatia

A forest fire broke out on the island of Brac, on the Dalmatian coast in Croatia, prompting authorities to issue an emergency alert.

Why it matters. This type of summer fire illustrates the recurring vulnerability of the Mediterranean region to forest fires.

Geopolitics

The Houthis are expanding their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and attacking Saudi Arabia, worsening the regional crisis in the Middle East.

Houthis take control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait

4 sources

YemenDjibouti

Pro-Iranian Houthi rebels launched a lightning offensive and took control of the Yemeni coast on the Red Sea as well as the strategic island of Mayun (Perim), consolidating their grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Approximately 1,400 Yemenis fled to Djibouti within 24 hours and tens of thousands of people were displaced by the intensification of fighting with government forces.

Why it matters. Control of this strategic maritime passage by a group backed by Iran threatens global trade and increases tensions throughout the region.

Houthi attack on a Saudi military base

4 sources

Saudi ArabiaYemen

The Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone and missile attack on a military base in southern Saudi Arabia, in retaliation for bombardments carried out by Riyadh in Yemen. A projectile also fell near the border, wounding two people and damaging a mosque in the Jazan region.

Why it matters. This direct escalation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia risks widening an already regionalized conflict in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia closes strategic pipeline after drone attacks

4 sources

Saudi ArabiaIraq

Riyadh temporarily closed the East-West pipeline, a crucial export route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, after drone attacks launched from Iraq. Baghdad dismissed a military commander and opened an investigation, locating the launch site in Maysan province, near the Iranian border.

Why it matters. The closure of a major oil infrastructure increases risks to global energy supply already weakened by the American-Iranian conflict.

Deadly strike near the Strait of Hormuz on an Iranian vessel

3 sources

Iran

An Iranian merchant ship was struck near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, killing one person and wounding three according to Iranian authorities, who did not specify the origin of the attack. The U.S. military states it has redirected around one hundred ships over two months as part of its blockade targeting Iran.

Why it matters. This incident illustrates the continuation of the American-Iranian conflict and its direct consequences on navigation in a maritime route essential to global oil trade.

BRICS Summit: call for restraint in the Middle East and India-China thaw

4 sources

IndiaChina

Gathered in New Delhi, the leaders of BRICS, including India, China, Russia and Iran, jointly called for "maximum restraint" in the Middle East conflict. The summit also marked Xi Jinping's first visit to India in seven years, with commitments from Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping to strengthen their economic ties and ease their border dispute.

Why it matters. This summit illustrates an attempt at diplomatic coordination between major non-Western powers facing a major crisis, as well as a strategic rapprochement between two rival Asian giants.

War in Ukraine: Zelensky ready to meet Putin, Kremlin refuses Miami

4 sources

UkraineRussia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was ready to meet Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit scheduled for December in Miami, but the Kremlin deemed this option impossible, stating that a meeting would only be conceivable in Moscow. Meanwhile, Moscow claimed a "massive strike" against several Ukrainian cities this week.

Why it matters. This diplomatic deadlock confirms the absence of prospects for direct negotiations in the short term between the two heads of state amid the ongoing conflict.

Markets

Asian markets decline sharply, with the Nikkei down nearly 2%, while oil falls and gold continues to rise in a climate of risk aversion.

Oil falls after Saudi pipeline closure

2 sources

Brent crude oil price fell 2.81% to settle at 104.61 dollars, despite the closure of the Saudi East-West pipeline following drone attacks. An article also highlights growing concern over fuel oil and heating prices as winter approaches due to the conflict between the United States and Iran.

Why it matters. Tensions in the Middle East pose a risk to global energy supply as the winter season approaches.

Historic listing of Dangote refinery in Nigeria

Nigeria

The Lekki refinery, owned by Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote, is set to make its debut on the Lagos Stock Exchange on Monday, September 14, which could constitute Africa's largest initial public offering. The operation is generating enthusiasm in financial circles from Lagos to Nairobi to Johannesburg.

Why it matters. This operation illustrates the development of African financial markets and the industrial growth of the continent in the energy sector.

Calls to slow down artificial intelligence development

4 sources

United States

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay calling on companies in the sector to slow down the pace of AI development, a call quickly supported by Elon Musk and Sam Altman. Meanwhile, Sam Altman ruled out any OpenAI initial public offering this year, citing concerns about AI-related risks.

Why it matters. These positions taken by major technology sector leaders could influence regulation and global investments in artificial intelligence.

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,179.77 ↑ +0.78 %
DAX 25,568.56 ↑ +0.82 %
FTSE 100 10,650.44 ↑ +0.39 %
S&P 500 7,656.98 ↑ +0.86 %
Nasdaq 26,333.03 ↑ +0.96 %
Nikkei 225 64,011.34 ↓ -1.93 %
Hang Seng 24,805.63 ↓ -0.60 %
VIX 15.84 ↓ -11.21 %
Petrole Brent 104.61 ↓ -2.81 %
Gaz naturel 2.83 ↓ -0.11 %
Or 4,408.9 ↑ +1.02 %
EUR/USD 1.16 ↓ -0.08 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 77,277 USD ↑ +0.01 %
Ethereum 2,520.73 USD ↑ +0.28 %
BNB 723.76 USD ↓ -1.14 %
Solana 101.43 USD ↓ -0.35 %
XRP 1.37 USD ↑ +0.10 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 104.61 USD ↓ -2.81 %
Gaz naturel 2.83 USD ↓ -0.11 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 75% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 50% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 93% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Suez — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Panama — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 73% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 109% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 98% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 104% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 88% of normal levels data from 6 September

Ormuz — trafic a 50% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-06)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,388 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

28 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

storm

Canadian Mental Health Association

storm claims to have compromised this organization.

unsafe

watchops.com

unsafe claims to have compromised this organization.

krybit

www.tiflispalace.ge

krybit claims to have compromised this organization.

krybit

www.tender.mx

krybit claims to have compromised this organization.

krybit

capricornlogistics.com

krybit claims to have compromised this organization.

krybit

www.ibnsinatrust.com

krybit claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 17% of normal levels
  • Myanmar — traffic at 18% of normal levels