4 events over the last 59 published days.
A dangerous country for a visitor, and economic and social fragilities.
Safety 70 + Economy 32 ÷ 2 = 51
The overall score is the average of the two detailed scores below. Each score runs from 0 (nothing to report) to 100 (extreme situation): calm under 30, tension from 30 to 59, crisis from 60. The calculation is fixed and the same for every country: no AI gives its opinion.
What it measures: the danger for someone travelling to the country right now (crime, terrorism, unrest, disasters, epidemics).
What it does not measure: the state of the economy, daily life for residents or long-term political stability.
| Criterion | Today | Scale | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian and US travel advisories | “Avoid all travel” · United States: level 4 of 4 | average of both advisories, from 0 (normal precautions) to 70 (do not travel) | 70/70 |
| Ongoing disaster (GDACS) | no alert | orange alert 8, red 15 | 0 |
| Reported epidemic (WHO, 30 days) | none | common disease 6, severe disease 10 | 0 |
| Internet outage (IODA) | none | outage 5, major outage 8 | 0 |
| In today's news | not cited | World 2, Geopolitics 4 | 0 |
In short: the score comes from travel advisories (70 points out of 70); no ongoing event adds to it.
Where the data comes from: Global Affairs Canada (travel advice) · US Department of State (travel advisories) · GDACS (UN and EU disaster alerts) · WHO (Disease Outbreak News, 30 days) · IODA, Georgia Tech (internet outages) · Horizon briefing of the day.
Score based on advisories written for foreign travellers: it does not describe everyday life there.
What it measures: how fragile the country is: public finances, jobs, prices, lender confidence and protest in the streets.
What it does not measure: the danger for a visitor, nor the future: it is neither a forecast nor financial advice.
| Criterion | Value | Scale | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public debt · what the state owes, relative to a year of output | 71.1% of GDP | 0 up to 60% of GDP, 15 from 150% of GDP | 1.8/15 |
| Budget deficit · what the state spends beyond its revenue | −15.1% of GDP | 0 from −3% of GDP, 10 at −8% of GDP or below | 10/10 |
| Growth · increase in output | −16% | 0 from 2%, 10 at −2% or below | 10/10 |
| Unemployment · share of the labour force without a job | not available for this country | 0 up to 5%, 10 from 15% | — |
| Inflation · price rise over a year | 3.5% | 0 up to 3%, 15 from 30% | 0.3/15 |
| Spread over Germany · extra cost of borrowing over 10 years, a sign of lender confidence | euro area only: not counted for this country | 0 up to 0.5 pt, 20 from 3 pts | — |
| Protests and strikes · in the news over the last 7 days | 0 events in our briefings 1% of GDELT events | average of two measures: our briefings (1 event = 6 points, 5 or more = 20) and the share of protests in GDELT (0 up to 2%, 20 from 10%) | 0/20 |
In short: what weighs most is budget deficit and weak growth. Not weighing: protests.
Where the data comes from: IMF, World Economic Outlook (2026 forecasts): debt, deficit, growth, inflation, unemployment · ECB, 10-year government bond yields (September 2026), euro area only · GDELT Project (protest events, 7 days) · Horizon briefings of the last 7 days.
Score calculated on 5 of 7 criteria: the points obtained are scaled to 100.
Score published since 23 October 2026: the chart fills in day by day.
2 October 2026 Geopolitics
Baghdad declared October 1st a celebration day following the departure of the international coalition and the last American troops, after twenty-three years of presence. The Iraqi Prime Minister sets June 30 as the deadline for disarmament of pro-Iranian factions.
1 October 2026 Geopolitics
The last American and British troops have left Iraq, ending the mission against the Islamic State and an American presence that began in 2003. Iraqis celebrated their Sovereignty Day.
30 September 2026 Geopolitics
The anti-jihadist coalition, present in Iraq for over ten years, completes its full withdrawal. The last American and British soldiers leave the country, under an agreement concluded two years earlier, and Baghdad celebrates a "Day of Sovereignty". Iran presents this departure as a victory for its armed allies, while Kurds are concerned about it.
13 September 2026 Geopolitics Saudi Arabia
Riyadh temporarily closed the East-West pipeline, a crucial export route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, after drone attacks launched from Iraq. Baghdad dismissed a military commander and opened an investigation, locating the launch site in Maysan province, near the Iranian border.
Today's risk score, highest first.
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