HORIZON
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Horizon

Horizon — 2 October 2026

2 October 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 2 October 2026. Flydubai flight: a copilot attempts to crash the plane · Washington strengthens its military deployment around Iran · 2027 Budget: the Lecornu government presents 43 billion euros in savings

The last thirty days

World

A failed attack aboard a Flydubai flight, a deadly avalanche in Nepal and a record heat wave in Western Europe dominate the news.

Illustration : United Arab Emirates
Illustration : United Arab EmiratesFabio Achilli from Milano, Italy · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Flydubai flight: a copilot attempts to crash the plane

A copilot on Flydubai flight FZ1073 stabbed the captain, causing a drop of approximately 14,000 feet in less than 30 seconds. Passengers intervened and the plane was able to land. Benyamin Netanyahu evokes Islamic radicalization, Donald Trump a possible link with Iran, and the copilot was transferred to the United Arab Emirates.

Why it matters

According to Israel, the attempt was aimed at crashing the aircraft, and the question of a link with Iran makes it an international security issue.
02

Nepal: an avalanche kills at least 15 expedition workers

An avalanche swept through a mountain camp in the Himalayas. Rescue workers recovered 15 bodies of workers who were preparing the camp for climbers.

Why it matters

The toll is heavy for an expedition team, in a country already marked by deadly floods.

2 sources
Al JazeeraThe Hindu
Nepal2 sources
03

Nepal: identification of flood victims progresses slowly

Only 112 bodies have been identified and returned to their families after the floods in Nepal. One Malaysian among the 55 reported missing was found alive and reunited with his family.

Why it matters

The death toll from the floods remains uncertain, with many foreign missing persons.

2 sources
The Straits TimesThe Straits Times
Nepal Malaysia2 sources
04

A record summer 2026 in Western Europe

According to Copernicus, the average summer temperature reached 21.7°C in Western Europe, well above average. River flow rates reached their lowest level in decades.

Why it matters

This summer becomes the hottest ever recorded in the region, without political response according to Le Monde.

1 source
Le Monde
1 source
05

Swiss glaciers: 5.5% of ice volume lost in 2026

The annual report on Swiss glaciers indicates that the country lost 5.5% of its ice volume this year. Al Jazeera mentions a loss of more than 5% threatening the alpine economy.

Why it matters

This melting confirms the underlying trend of retreat of alpine glaciers and weighs on the mountain economy.

2 sources
Courrier internationalAl Jazeera
Switzerland2 sources
06

Execution of Christa Pike fails in Tennessee

Christa Pike, sentenced to death for a murder committed in 1995, survived two lethal injections on Wednesday. She is in intensive care in a hospital, and her lawyers are requesting commutation of her sentence.

Why it matters

The failure reignites the debate on capital punishment and execution methods in the United States.

4 sources
BBC WorldBBC WorldSouth China Morning PostLe Monde
United States4 sources
07

Two new islands near Anak Krakatau

Two new islands appeared near the Anak Krakatau volcano in Indonesia after an eruption. According to The Straits Times, this would be the first appearance since 1930.

Why it matters

These formations are a rare geological phenomenon in the caldera of the catastrophic 1883 eruption.

2 sources
The Straits TimesSouth China Morning Post
Indonesia2 sources
08

Violence against women: eleven bodies found near Johannesburg

Since July, bodies of naked or half-naked women, violently beaten, have been found in the suburbs of Johannesburg. The serial predator theory is weakening, but the reality of extreme violence against women remains.

Why it matters

This series of discoveries reveals the extent of violence against women in South Africa.

1 source
Le Monde
South Africa1 source

In brief

  • United StatesA crew of four astronauts departed for the ISS aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 for a stay that could reach six months.BBC World ↗
  • AustraliaBogong moths threatened with extinction are invading the east coast of Australia, notably Sydney and Canberra.BBC World ↗
  • AlgeriaAlgeria is expanding the death penalty to arsonists and child kidnappers following deadly forest fires in the summer.Le Monde ↗
  • A proposed Joy Division box set recalled the imprint left by the band, according to English-language press.Courrier international ↗
  • ThailandA plankton bloom tinted the waters of a Thai tourist paradise green.The Straits Times ↗

Geopolitics

Russian strikes on Kyiv, American military deployment around Iran and the rupture between Ethiopia and Eritrea are aggravating tensions.

Illustration : Tehran (Iran)
Illustration : Tehran (Iran)Amir Pashaei · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Washington strengthens its military deployment around Iran

An American official indicates that the United States will send a third aircraft carrier toward Iran. The deployment includes 50,000 military personnel, F-35s and Marines, including 2,000 additional troops sent to the Middle East.

Why it matters

This concentration of forces increases pressure on Tehran in the context of a war that has been ongoing since February.

02

Ethiopia and Eritrea break diplomatic relations

Ethiopia accused Eritrea of hostile acts, closed its embassy and ordered ten diplomats to leave. Asmara retaliated by breaking relations, as fighting continues in northern Ethiopia.

Why it matters

The rupture occurs in a context of conflict on multiple fronts in the Horn of Africa.

4 sources
France 24BBC WorldAl JazeeraSouth China Morning Post
Ethiopia Eritrea4 sources
03

Kyiv struck by Russian drones, a bridge targeted

Two Russian drones struck an important bridge in Kyiv over the Dnieper on Thursday. On Friday, an air strike killed one person and wounded two after a residential building was hit.

Why it matters

Attacks are intensifying on the Ukrainian capital, with an economic cost estimated at 45 million dollars per hour of alert.

3 sources
France 24France 24Courrier international
Ukraine3 sources
04

Seoul demands apologies from Kyiv over North Korean prisoners

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung accuses Ukraine of breaking a confidentiality agreement by revealing the transfer of two North Korean prisoners to South Korea. He threatens to take further measures without official apologies.

Why it matters

This dispute opens a diplomatic disagreement between two de facto supporting countries, and touches on the fate of prisoners' families.

4 sources
France 24Le MondeBBC WorldSouth China Morning Post
South Korea Ukraine4 sources
05

Putin threatens to use all his weapons for Kaliningrad

Vladimir Putin asserts that Russia will use all weapons in its arsenal if its territory is attacked. He assures that Moscow is not threatening anyone and is responding to statements by Western leaders.

Why it matters

These remarks come as European officials warn of a possible Russian strike against another country.

2 sources
BBC WorldThe Hindu
Russia2 sources
06

Saudi Arabia accuses Houthis of an attack near Medina

Riyadh claims that the Houthis targeted electrical infrastructure supplying the Prophet's Mosque in Medina. Several Muslim countries condemned the attack.

Why it matters

This attack targets a holy site of Islam and broadens the confrontation with the Houthis.

2 sources
France 24Le Monde
Saudi Arabia Yemen2 sources
07

Iraq celebrates the departure of American troops

Baghdad declared October 1st a celebration day following the departure of the international coalition and the last American troops, after twenty-three years of presence. The Iraqi Prime Minister sets June 30 as the deadline for disarmament of pro-Iranian factions.

Why it matters

This withdrawal redefines the security balance in Iraq, between Iran and the United States.

2 sources
Le MondeThe Hindu
Iraq2 sources
08

First American F-16V fighters arrive in Taiwan

Taiwan receives its first F-16Vs, in a contract worth approximately 7 billion euros for 66 aircraft. The delivery comes as concerns grow in Taipei about the Trump administration's commitment to arming the island.

Why it matters

This armament strengthens Taiwan's defense against China.

2 sources
Le MondeThe Straits Times
Taiwan2 sources

In brief

Markets

European and Asian stock exchanges decline (CAC 40 -1.62%, Hang Seng -2.63%) while Brent remains above 100 dollars and the French 2027 budget weighs on rates.

Illustration : France
Illustration : FrancePierre Blaché from Paris, France · CC0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

2027 Budget: the Lecornu government presents 43 billion euros in savings

The government presented its budget project for 2027 with 43 billion euros in effort, including 17 billion in new taxes and 26 billion in cuts. The objective is to bring the deficit to 5% of GDP in 2027, compared to 5.6% expected for 2026. Medef denounces nearly 20 billion in tax increases for businesses.

Why it matters

This budget must be voted without a majority and the High Council of Public Finances judges the 1% growth forecast optimistic.
02

Washington urges Europe to release its diesel reserves

The United States is calling for immediate release of European diesel to the market before an emergency EU meeting. Donald Trump also threatens to ban American diesel exports before the November elections.

Why it matters

The surge in fuel prices, up by a third or more in seven months since the start of the American-Iranian war in February, weighs on economies.

4 sources
France 24Le MondeBBC WorldAl Jazeera
United States4 sources
03

French debt approaches 5% despite budget presentation

The French ten-year rate approached 5% on Thursday before falling back to 4.83% after the presentation of the 2027 budget. La Tribune judges that the alert remains.

Why it matters

The level of rates illustrates market pressure on French public finances.

1 source
La Tribune
France1 source
04

G20 Commerce ends without agreement on overcapacities

In Milwaukee, the United States failed to rally other countries on industrial overcapacities, a barely veiled criticism of China. The American trade representative states that Washington will not remain passive in the face of Chinese overproduction.

Why it matters

The lack of progress prolongs trade tensions between the United States and China.

2 sources
France 24Nikkei Asia
United States China2 sources
05

Apple condemned to pay 5.2 billion dollars for patent violation

An American judge condemned Apple for violating patents on haptic technology in its iPhones and Apple Watches, which Taction has claimed since 2021.

Why it matters

It is a high-value condemnation for a technology giant.

1 source
Courrier international
United States1 source
06

Rich countries trapped in debt

Deficits and colossal debt, combined with rising rates, force OECD countries to devote a growing share of their resources to debt service.

Why it matters

This constraint reduces the budgetary room for maneuver of developed states.

1 source
Courrier international
1 source
07

The Bank of England monitors the AI boom

Andrew Bailey warns that the influx of capital into artificial intelligence could cause market shocks and that the central bank is monitoring the situation very closely.

Why it matters

A reversal in the sector could affect all financial markets.

1 source
BBC Business
United Kingdom1 source
08

The IMF supports Milei but calls for sharing growth

The International Monetary Fund supports the economic strategy of the Milei government. It calls for the benefits of growth to benefit workers more.

Why it matters

The IMF's opinion weighs on Argentina's economic trajectory.

1 source
Buenos Aires Times
Argentina1 source

In brief

  • United StatesTwilio will join the S&P 500, replacing Warner Bros Discovery, which is set to merge with Paramount.MarketWatch ↗
  • ArgentinaTotalEnergies commits to investing nearly 10 billion dollars in Argentina, notably in Vaca Muerta and offshore.Buenos Aires Times ↗
  • ArgentinaFrench mining group Eramet is considering a 350 million dollar expansion in lithium in Argentina.Buenos Aires Times ↗
  • ArgentinaUnited StatesYPF investors are asking the American Supreme Court to reconsider the 16 billion dollar judgment in their favor.Buenos Aires Times ↗
  • FrancePrime Minister Sébastien Lecornu presented the Social Security financing bill, targeting a deficit of 12.7 billion euros in 2027.France 24 ↗
  • FranceThe French government renounces the increase in registration fees for preparatory classes and BTS in the face of the secondary school crisis.Les Échos ↗
  • FranceChinaThe Bank of France alerts on a second Chinese shock, marked by overcapacities and closure of the American market.La Tribune ↗

Closing prices on 2 October 2026

Last close recorded for the briefing of 2 October 2026 (crypto: price at publication time, in US dollars). Information only, not financial advice. All markets and charts →

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 7,835.31 ↓ -1.62 %
DAX 24,939.35 ↓ -1.03 %
FTSE 100 10,428.27 ↓ -1.68 %
S&P 500 7,666.45 ↑ +0.19 %
Nasdaq 26,871.6 ↑ +0.04 %
Nikkei 225 68,218.37 ↓ -1.07 %
Hang Seng 23,965.28 ↓ -2.63 %
VIX 16.39 ↑ +0.31 %
Petrole Brent 101.79 ↓ -0.51 %
Gaz naturel 2.92 ↓ -1.72 %
Or 4,220 ↑ +0.42 %
EUR/USD 1.13 ↓ -0.58 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 86,016 USD ↑ +2.03 %
Ethereum 2,728.77 USD ↑ +0.35 %
BNB 777.73 USD ↑ +0.76 %
Solana 121.89 USD ↑ +1.98 %
XRP 1.52 USD ↑ +1.19 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 101.79 USD ↓ -0.51 %
Gaz naturel 2.92 USD ↓ -1.72 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 90% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 50% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Suez — traffic at 93% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Panama — traffic at 87% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 77% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 110% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 94% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 27 September

Ormuz — trafic a 50% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-27)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

  • A7 NETWORK — TCO
  • IRAN KHODRO COMPANY — IRAN-EO13902
  • PARS KHODRO COMPANY — IRAN-EO13902
  • ZAMYAD COMPANY — IRAN-EO13902
  • IRAN KHODRO DIESEL COMPANY — IRAN-EO13902
  • ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN RAILWAY COMPANY — IRAN-EO13902
  • RAJA PASSENGER TRAINS COMPANY — IRAN-EO13902
  • SHERKAT-E RAH AHAN-E KHAMLE-O-NAGHLE — IRAN-EO13902
  • SAIPA IRANIAN AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURING COMPANY — IRAN-EO13902
  • KESHVARDOUST, Ramin — IRAN-EO13871
  • SHANGHAI RUIMI IMPORT AND EXPORT TRADE CO., LTD. — IRAN-EO13871
  • M AND R STEEL CO., LTD. — IRAN-EO13871
  • SILVER LINE METAL TRADING LLC — IRAN-EO13871
  • FIDAR FOOLAD RADMAN — IRAN-EO13871
  • TECH-TRADE INTERNATIONAL IMPEX GMBH — IRAN-EO13871

19,483 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

62 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

storm

Allied Machine & Engineering

storm claims to have compromised this organization.

storm

Step By Step

storm claims to have compromised this organization.

ransomhouse

Hospital Hermilio Valdizán

ransomhouse claims to have compromised this organization.

kairos

Slate Valley Unified School District

kairos claims to have compromised this organization.

morpheus

Superior Plating Technology CO

morpheus claims to have compromised this organization.

booba team

FUNAP - Fundação "Prof. Dr. Manoel Pedro Pimentel"

booba team claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 5% of normal levels
  • Montserrat — traffic at 30% of normal levels