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Horizon

Horizon — 28 September 2026

28 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 28 September 2026. Devastating floods in Bangkok and Thailand · Serbian president Vucic resigns, snap elections called · Tariff truce extended between Washington and Beijing

The last thirty days

World

Floods and deadly avalanche strike Asia as climate disasters multiply.

Archive image : NASA Spacecraft Shows Continued Flooding Woes in Thailand (2011)
Archive image : NASA Spacecraft Shows Continued Flooding Woes in Thailand (2011)NASA / JPL · Public domain · NASA
Top story
01

Devastating floods in Bangkok and Thailand

Bangkok authorities declared a natural disaster state in the city's 50 districts after 48 hours of torrential rain. Damage is estimated at 320 million dollars and 41 Thai provinces are affected, with thousands of people sheltered in emergency centers.

Why it matters

These floods are hitting a capital of several million inhabitants and disrupting the country's tourism economy during peak season.

02

Deadly avalanche on Himlung peak in Nepal

An avalanche struck the base camp of Himlung Himal peak (7126 m) in Nepal, killing at least two people and leaving up to 14 missing among climbers and support staff. Rescue operations are continuing their search.

Why it matters

The accident casts a shadow over the Himalayan climbing season and revives concerns about the safety of high-altitude expeditions.

Nepal4 sources
03

Boat sinking on Lake Kivu in DRC

A boat carrying more than 50 fish traders and their merchandise capsized near Idjwi island in Lake Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo. At least 12 people died and dozens remain missing.

Why it matters

This type of sinking, recurring on overcrowded African lakes, illustrates the risks of insufficiently regulated transport in the Great Lakes region.

Democratic Republic of the Congo1 source
04

Indonesian ferry sinking: death toll rises

The death toll from an Indonesian ferry sinking has risen to 66 as search operations enter their sixteenth day. Divers continue to explore the wreck despite fuel leaks and unstable structures.

Why it matters

This prolonged maritime tragedy is mobilizing significant rescue resources and raises questions about maritime transport safety in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia1 source
05

Winter storm strikes northeastern United States

A powerful nor'easter hit New York and New Jersey, killing one person and causing power outages for tens of millions of people from Maine to Virginia.

Why it matters

The geographic scale of the storm, affecting several densely populated American states, makes it a major climate event.

United States3 sources
06

Deadly floods in Myanmar

The Tanintharyi region in southern Myanmar has been hit by heavy rains since September 25. Rescuers fear about ten people may have died in areas cut off from the world by flooding.

Why it matters

These storms add to a series of climate disasters simultaneously affecting several Southeast Asian countries this month.

Myanmar1 source

Geopolitics

Serbian president's resignation and impasse on Iranian issue mark a day of diplomatic escalation.

Illustration : Belgrade (Serbia)
Illustration : Belgrade (Serbia)Zeks127 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Serbian president Vucic resigns, snap elections called

Aleksandar Vucic announced Sunday his resignation from the Serbian presidency, ending his second term, and is now seeking the position of prime minister. Snap legislative elections will be held in late October, a demand from the student movement that emerged in November 2024.

Why it matters

This movement, compared by some observers to a maneuver inspired by Vladimir Putin, opens a period of political uncertainty in the Balkans.

02

Washington rejects Iranian peace plan on Hormuz

Donald Trump rejected the plan submitted by Tehran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and resuming negotiations. Iran responds that it will not back down, while its foreign minister evokes a possible 'apocalyptic war' while saying he is open to 'genuine diplomacy'.

Why it matters

The failure of this mediation maintains tension around a strategic maritime route for global oil trade.

Iran United States4 sources
03

US sanctions further isolate Iran

New American sanctions against Iranian airlines complicate international travel, pushing Iranian authorities to close the French Language Center in Tehran. The US Treasury welcomes restrictions adopted by several countries.

Why it matters

This economic pressure increases the isolation of the Iranian population and weakens cultural exchanges with foreign countries.

Iran United States2 sources
04

Intense Russian bombardments on Ukraine

Russian strikes killed several people in Ukraine, including a bombardment on Kharkiv that wounded 25 people, nine of them children. Volodymyr Zelensky indicates that Russia has launched nearly 4000 drones, aerial bombs and missiles on Ukraine in one week.

Why it matters

The sustained intensity of these strikes illustrates the continuation of an already entrenched war, with no notable change in pace today.

Ukraine Russia4 sources
05

Switzerland rejects strict neutrality

Swiss voters massively rejected Sunday an initiative from the far right that would have prevented the country from imposing sanctions without UN approval and tightened rules on military alliances. The status quo, a neutrality aligned with the Western bloc, is validated.

Why it matters

This vote confirms Switzerland's Atlanticist orientation and rules out a withdrawal that could have affected its cooperation with the European Union.

Switzerland3 sources
06

Venezuela releases political prisoners

Venezuela released dozens of political prisoners as calls for elections multiply. This announcement comes days after a meeting between the country's interim leader and the American president.

Why it matters

This gesture could signal an evolution in tense relations between Caracas and Washington, in a context of international pressures.

Venezuela2 sources

Markets

Markets remain calm, buoyed by Sino-American trade truce and easing of rates.

Illustration : Washington, D.C. (United States)
Illustration : Washington, D.C. (United States)Carol M. Highsmith · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Tariff truce extended between Washington and Beijing

The United States and China published the list of products covered by tariff reductions on 60 billion dollars of trade, following the Trump-Xi summit. Beijing also announces it will reduce tariffs on American agricultural products, with the exception of soybeans, and the tariff pause is extended until January 10, 2027.

Why it matters

This commercial easing between the world's two largest economies reduces uncertainty for markets and international trade.

02

Tensions over US debt and rates

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is attempting, unsuccessfully according to Le Monde, to counter the surge in US debt rates. Wall Street is posting record highs but tensions are appearing beneath the surface, with high oil prices and a Federal Reserve preparing further rate hikes.

Why it matters

The evolution of US rates directly influences the cost of credit and global bond markets.

United States3 sources
03

French 2027 budget under market pressure

The French government must unveil its 2027 budget bill on Thursday, as the rapid rise in interest rates worries investors. A mobilization of the civil service is planned for Tuesday, against the backdrop of budget decisions.

Why it matters

France's budget trajectory is being scrutinized by European markets in a context of high debt.

France4 sources
04

Copper approaches 15,000 dollars per tonne

Copper prices are nearing 15,000 dollars per tonne, a level considered bold a year ago. An accident at the world's largest mine and declining Chinese stocks are fueling this increase.

Why it matters

This surge in copper, a strategic raw material for electrification and green technologies, has repercussions across global industry.

1 source
1 source
05

TotalEnergies extends its gas bet in Caspian Sea

TotalEnergies and its partners have decided to develop the expansion of the Azerbaijani Absheron field, whose gas production is expected to quadruple by 2029. Turkey is announced as the outlet for this production.

Why it matters

This energy investment strengthens gas links between the Caspian and Europe via Turkey.

1 source
Azerbaijan1 source
06

Nidec announces heavy accounting impairment

Japanese motor manufacturer Nidec will record an impairment loss of more than 3.8 billion dollars.

Why it matters

This announcement illustrates the difficulties facing some major Japanese industrial groups in the current economic context.

1 source
Japan1 source

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,077.8 ↓ -0.04 %
DAX 25,408.64 ↑ +0.56 %
FTSE 100 10,695.25 ↑ +0.14 %
S&P 500 7,743.41 ↑ +0.51 %
Nasdaq 27,068.72 ↑ +0.48 %
Nikkei 225 66,075.01 ↓ -0.44 %
Hang Seng 24,706.64 ↑ +0.80 %
VIX 14.87 ↓ -5.11 %
Petrole Brent 98.93 ↓ -5.17 %
Gaz naturel 3.12 ↓ -2.35 %
Or 4,204.7 ↓ -2.70 %
EUR/USD 1.14 ↑ +0.04 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 83,088 USD ↓ -1.68 %
Ethereum 2,648.81 USD ↓ -2.15 %
BNB 763.05 USD ↓ -1.42 %
Solana 118.69 USD ↓ -2.16 %
XRP 1.48 USD ↓ -2.67 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 98.93 USD ↓ -5.17 %
Gaz naturel 3.12 USD ↓ -2.35 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 81% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 33% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 105% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Suez — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Panama — traffic at 90% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 88% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 103% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 91% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 96% of normal levels data from 20 September

Ormuz — trafic a 33% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-20)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,391 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

83 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

panzer

Ressources Si

panzer claims to have compromised this organization.

panzer

SMCare

panzer claims to have compromised this organization.

panzer

Asesoría FAR

panzer claims to have compromised this organization.

emperador

SiteProRentals

emperador claims to have compromised this organization.

qilin

XICO

qilin claims to have compromised this organization.

qilin

Island

qilin claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 5% of normal levels
  • Iraq — traffic at 18% of normal levels
  • Malaysia — traffic at 47% of normal levels