7 events over the last 60 published days.
No particular danger for a visitor, and an economic and social situation without notable strain.
Safety 12 + Economy 8 ÷ 2 = 10
The overall score is the average of the two detailed scores below. Each score runs from 0 (nothing to report) to 100 (extreme situation): calm under 30, tension from 30 to 59, crisis from 60. The calculation is fixed and the same for every country: no AI gives its opinion.
What it measures: the danger for someone travelling to the country right now (crime, terrorism, unrest, disasters, epidemics).
What it does not measure: the state of the economy, daily life for residents or long-term political stability.
| Criterion | Today | Scale | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian and US travel advisories | “Exercise normal security precautions (with regional advisories)” · United States: level 2 of 4 | average of both advisories, from 0 (normal precautions) to 70 (do not travel) | 11.7/70 |
| Ongoing disaster (GDACS) | no alert | orange alert 8, red 15 | 0 |
| Reported epidemic (WHO, 30 days) | none | common disease 6, severe disease 10 | 0 |
| Internet outage (IODA) | none | outage 5, major outage 8 | 0 |
| In today's news | not cited | World 2, Geopolitics 4 | 0 |
In short: the score comes from travel advisories (11.7 points out of 70); no ongoing event adds to it.
Where the data comes from: Global Affairs Canada (travel advice) · US Department of State (travel advisories) · GDACS (UN and EU disaster alerts) · WHO (Disease Outbreak News, 30 days) · IODA, Georgia Tech (internet outages) · Horizon briefing of the day.
Score based on advisories written for foreign travellers: it does not describe everyday life there.
What it measures: how fragile the country is: public finances, jobs, prices, lender confidence and protest in the streets.
What it does not measure: the danger for a visitor, nor the future: it is neither a forecast nor financial advice.
| Criterion | Value | Scale | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public debt · what the state owes, relative to a year of output | 42.9% of GDP | 0 up to 60% of GDP, 15 from 150% of GDP | 0/15 |
| Budget deficit · what the state spends beyond its revenue | −3.4% of GDP | 0 from −3% of GDP, 10 at −8% of GDP or below | 0.8/10 |
| Growth · increase in output | 3.3% | 0 from 2%, 10 at −2% or below | 0/10 |
| Unemployment · share of the labour force without a job | 8.6% | 0 up to 5%, 10 from 15% | 3.6/10 |
| Inflation · price rise over a year | 3.1% | 0 up to 3%, 15 from 30% | 0.1/15 |
| Spread over Germany · extra cost of borrowing over 10 years, a sign of lender confidence | euro area only: not counted for this country | 0 up to 0.5 pt, 20 from 3 pts | — |
| Protests and strikes · in the news over the last 7 days | 0 events in our briefings 3.4% of GDELT events | average of two measures: our briefings (1 event = 6 points, 5 or more = 20) and the share of protests in GDELT (0 up to 2%, 20 from 10%) | 1.8/20 |
In short: what weighs most is unemployment. Not weighing: public debt and growth.
Where the data comes from: IMF, World Economic Outlook (2026 forecasts): debt, deficit, growth, inflation, unemployment · ECB, 10-year government bond yields (September 2026), euro area only · GDELT Project (protest events, 7 days) · Horizon briefings of the last 7 days.
Score calculated on 6 of 7 criteria: the points obtained are scaled to 100.
30 October 2026 Geopolitics
The Student List movement won the October 25 legislative elections against Aleksandar Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party, which has ruled the country for 14 years. Its elected officials are now demanding the resignation of senior officials, particularly in police and justice.
28 October 2026 Geopolitics
The protest movement led by students won a historic victory Sunday in Serbian legislative elections, beating the party of departing president Aleksandar Vucic, who acknowledged his defeat on October 25. Brussels welcomed the result.
27 October 2026 Geopolitics
The Student List won the legislative elections of October 25 in Serbia, after fourteen years of domination by populist Aleksandar Vučić. The latter acknowledges that it is "clear" that his party lost the ballot. Belgrade celebrated the victory with jubilation.
26 October 2026 Geopolitics
Aleksandar Vucic, who has dominated Serbian politics for fourteen years, has acknowledged his defeat in snap legislative elections to the student movement. The movement had led protests for nearly two years, following the collapse of a canopy at Novi Sad railway station that killed 16.
25 October 2026 Geopolitics
Serbs vote on Sunday for snap legislative elections demanded by a powerful student movement, which is presenting a list against president Aleksandar Vucic. In power for fourteen years, the latter faces the threat of defeat in a vote that polls suggest is tight.
24 October 2026 Geopolitics
After nearly two years of protests against corruption, the student list forms the main challenge to the power of President Aleksandar Vučić. The election is very tight.
28 September 2026 Geopolitics
Aleksandar Vucic announced Sunday his resignation from the Serbian presidency, ending his second term, and is now seeking the position of prime minister. Snap legislative elections will be held in late October, a demand from the student movement that emerged in November 2024.
Today's risk score, highest first.
You can reuse this index on your website, blog or in your work, as long as you credit Horizon.
Free to reuse, including commercially, crediting Horizon (CC BY 4.0). Full history to download: open data.