3 events over the last 60 published days.
No particular danger for a visitor, and an economic and social situation without notable strain.
Safety 0 + Economy 3 ÷ 2 = 2
The overall score is the average of the two detailed scores below. Each score runs from 0 (nothing to report) to 100 (extreme situation): calm under 30, tension from 30 to 59, crisis from 60. The calculation is fixed and the same for every country: no AI gives its opinion.
What it measures: the danger for someone travelling to the country right now (crime, terrorism, unrest, disasters, epidemics).
What it does not measure: the state of the economy, daily life for residents or long-term political stability.
| Criterion | Today | Scale | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian and US travel advisories | “Exercise normal security precautions” · United States: level 1 of 4 | average of both advisories, from 0 (normal precautions) to 70 (do not travel) | 0/70 |
| Ongoing disaster (GDACS) | no alert | orange alert 8, red 15 | 0 |
| Reported epidemic (WHO, 30 days) | none | common disease 6, severe disease 10 | 0 |
| Internet outage (IODA) | none | outage 5, major outage 8 | 0 |
| In today's news | not cited | World 2, Geopolitics 4 | 0 |
In short: the score comes from travel advisories (0 points out of 70); no ongoing event adds to it.
Where the data comes from: Global Affairs Canada (travel advice) · US Department of State (travel advisories) · GDACS (UN and EU disaster alerts) · WHO (Disease Outbreak News, 30 days) · IODA, Georgia Tech (internet outages) · Horizon briefing of the day.
Score based on advisories written for foreign travellers: it does not describe everyday life there.
What it measures: how fragile the country is: public finances, jobs, prices, lender confidence and protest in the streets.
What it does not measure: the danger for a visitor, nor the future: it is neither a forecast nor financial advice.
| Criterion | Value | Scale | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public debt · what the state owes, relative to a year of output | 44.7% of GDP | 0 up to 60% of GDP, 15 from 150% of GDP | 0/15 |
| Budget deficit · what the state spends beyond its revenue | −2.3% of GDP | 0 from −3% of GDP, 10 at −8% of GDP or below | 0/10 |
| Growth · increase in output | 2.7% | 0 from 2%, 10 at −2% or below | 0/10 |
| Unemployment · share of the labour force without a job | 6.8% | 0 up to 5%, 10 from 15% | 1.8/10 |
| Inflation · price rise over a year | 5.4% | 0 up to 3%, 15 from 30% | 1.3/15 |
| Spread over Germany · extra cost of borrowing over 10 years, a sign of lender confidence | −0.59 pt 2.88% against 3.47% for Germany | 0 up to 0.5 pt, 20 from 3 pts | 0/20 |
| Protests and strikes · in the news over the last 7 days | 0 events in our briefings 0.5% of GDELT events | average of two measures: our briefings (1 event = 6 points, 5 or more = 20) and the share of protests in GDELT (0 up to 2%, 20 from 10%) | 0/20 |
In short: what weighs most is no criterion in particular. Not weighing: public debt, deficit, growth, borrowing costs and protests.
Where the data comes from: IMF, World Economic Outlook (2026 forecasts): debt, deficit, growth, inflation, unemployment · ECB, 10-year government bond yields (September 2026), euro area only · GDELT Project (protest events, 7 days) · Horizon briefings of the last 7 days.
17 September 2026 Geopolitics Russia
After Berlin's accusation of an attempted Russian attack at Leipzig airport, incidents are multiplying: a drone of undetermined origin was shot down by NATO fighters over Lithuania, a first for the alliance.
16 September 2026 Geopolitics Denmark
A drone of unknown origin, probably from Belarus, was shot down by NATO aircraft after entering Lithuanian airspace. Denmark meanwhile accuses a Russian warship of firing flares at one of its military helicopters, behaviour deemed irresponsible by the European Union.
15 September 2026 Geopolitics Belarus
NATO fighters destroyed a drone that flew over Lithuania in the night from Monday to Tuesday, probably coming from Belarus, an ally of Russia. An alert had been issued in Vilnius.
Today's risk score, highest first.
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