Horizon

Horizon — 17 September 2026

17 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Markets calm, geopolitics under tension.

The last thirty days

World

A mine collapse in Sudan causes dozens of deaths and climate warming worsens the Nepalese disaster, against a backdrop of repeated flooding.

Collapse of a gold mine in Sudan

2 sources

Sudan

The collapse of a gold mine in Sudan has killed at least 82 people, with many missing. Rescue efforts are struggling, with only one private forklift available for search operations.

Why it matters. A very heavy toll in a country already weakened by civil war, where rescue infrastructure is virtually non-existent.

Climate warming worsens the collapse of the Nepalese glacier

3 sources

Nepal

A first scientific attribution study confirms that climate warming is an aggravating factor in the avalanche of rocks and ice as well as the deadly floods that occurred on August 26 in the Himalayas. Average temperatures in August in the region were approximately 5 degrees above normal.

Why it matters. This is one of the first scientific demonstrations establishing a direct link between climate change and Himalayan disaster, with a deadly toll.

The peak of the Ebola epidemic would have passed in DRC

Democratic Republic of the Congo

According to Congolese authorities, the peak of the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo has now passed. The virus has killed 3510 people since its declaration four months ago, with Ituri province accounting for 78% of cases.

Why it matters. An announced decline in a deadly epidemic that affected the eastern part of the country for several months, a rare and positive development in health matters.

An Indonesian shipwreck leaves 129 missing

Indonesia

In Indonesia, rescue operations plan to right a capsized vessel, as poor weather conditions complicate the search for 129 missing people. The righting operation could take more than 24 hours.

Why it matters. A major maritime accident with a high number of missing persons, in a region regularly struck by this type of disaster.

Flooding in Valencia, one year after the 2024 disaster

Spain

New flooding strikes Valencia in Spain, caused by torrential rains that trigger rescue operations and severely disrupt transport, reviving memories of the 2024 tragedy.

Why it matters. The return of flooding in a region still marked by a recent deadly disaster illustrates the repetition of extreme climate episodes in Europe.

Geopolitics

Tensions intensify between Russia and Europe, while the Houthis expand their attacks and the militarization of space crosses a new threshold.

Washington confirms possessing weapons in orbit

3 sources

United States

The United States confirmed possessing 'space control weapons' in orbit, an announcement that provoked strong reactions from Russia and China. France, the fifth space power, remained silent on the subject.

Why it matters. This confirmation marks a step in the militarization of space and relaunches the debate on the legal framework for weapons in orbit.

Multiplication of incidents between Russia and Europe

2 sources

LithuaniaRussia

After Berlin's accusation of an attempted Russian attack at Leipzig airport, incidents are multiplying: a drone of undetermined origin was shot down by NATO fighters over Lithuania, a first for the alliance.

Why it matters. This series of incidents raises fears of an escalation of tensions between Russia and NATO member countries, beyond the Ukrainian conflict.

The US Congress adopts new sanctions against Russia

4 sources

United StatesRussia

The US Congress adopted a package of sanctions targeting Moscow's shadow fleet for the first time, and giving Donald Trump the power to impose tariffs, potentially reaching 100%, on Russia's commercial partners, including India.

Why it matters. This text marks the return of American legislative support for Ukraine after more than two years, with major commercial consequences for third countries such as India.

Saudi Arabia targeted by Houthi drone attack

4 sources

Saudi ArabiaYemen

Saudi Arabia accuses the Houthis of conducting a drone attack against Mecca, intercepted by its air defense, as the conflict with Yemeni rebels has resumed. Riyadh is discovering the limits of its security alliance with Washington, which refuses to become directly involved.

Why it matters. The extension of the conflict with the Houthis to sensitive Saudi targets raises fears of regional escalation near the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, strategic for global trade.

Hashim Thaçi sentenced to twenty-five years in prison for war crimes

3 sources

Kosovo

The special tribunal in The Hague sentenced former Kosovo president Hashim Thaçi to twenty-five years in prison for arbitrary detention, torture and murders committed during the 1998-1999 war. Protesters reacted by throwing stones at the EU mission headquarters in Kosovo.

Why it matters. This conviction of a former head of state by an international tribunal revives internal tensions in Kosovo, where Thaçi is perceived by many as a hero of independence.

Washington again denies Mahmoud Abbas visa for the UN

4 sources

United StatesPalestine

The US State Department again refused a visa to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas and Palestinian Authority officials for the UN General Assembly, citing lack of reforms and failure to meet peace commitments.

Why it matters. This repeated refusal deprives Palestinian leadership of a major international forum and illustrates the deterioration of relations with Washington.

Markets

Markets remain calm despite the rise in US interest rates, with no critical threshold having been crossed.

The US Federal Reserve raises its interest rates

4 sources

United States

The Fed raised its interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, in a range of 3.75% to 4%, to combat inflation deemed too high, contrary to the expectations of President Donald Trump who called for a cut.

Why it matters. This decision marks a tightening of American monetary policy that influences global markets and borrowing conditions on an international scale.

Saudi Arabia and the global economy under maritime tension

2 sources

Saudi ArabiaYemen

After the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, another strategic point for maritime trade, is threatened by the offensive of Houthi rebels against Riyadh, driving up oil and fuel prices.

Why it matters. The threat to two major strategic straits for global trade poses a risk to international energy supply.

Financial difficulties in the airline sector facing kerosene prices

The surge in kerosene prices is claiming its first victims in aviation: after Latvian airline Air Baltic, placed under chapter 11 protection, the giant AirAsia is urgently seeking fresh capital.

Why it matters. The rise in energy costs linked to Middle East tensions is weakening airlines from several continents.

Germany prepares a record defense budget

Germany

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius defends a record budget of 140 billion euros for 2027, in a context of tense budget debate in Germany.

Why it matters. This increase in German military spending illustrates the ongoing European rearmament in the face of tensions with Russia.

French debt under increasing pressure

France

According to the Rexecode institute, the interest burden of French debt will double by 2030 to reach 4% of GDP, a pressure deemed considerable on public finances.

Why it matters. This budgetary trajectory concerns creditors and France's European partners, in a context of increased surveillance of sovereign debts.

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,140.59 ↑ +0.62 %
DAX 25,537.75 ↑ +0.53 %
FTSE 100 10,688.47 ↑ +0.28 %
S&P 500 7,551.81 ↓ -0.45 %
Nasdaq 25,978.42 ↓ -0.01 %
Nikkei 225 63,974.45 ↑ +0.08 %
Hang Seng 24,521.61 ↓ -0.78 %
VIX 17.71 ↑ +2.97 %
Petrole Brent 104.52 ↓ -1.24 %
Gaz naturel 2.9 ↑ +0.38 %
Or 4,344.8 ↓ -0.97 %
EUR/USD 1.15 ↓ -0.50 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 76,410 USD ↑ +0.73 %
Ethereum 2,439.08 USD ↑ +1.70 %
BNB 724.48 USD ↑ +1.62 %
Solana 99.59 USD ↑ +2.64 %
XRP 1.3 USD ↑ +0.34 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 104.52 USD ↓ -1.24 %
Gaz naturel 2.9 USD ↑ +0.38 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 84% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 83% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 104% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Suez — traffic at 95% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Panama — traffic at 97% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 76% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 92% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 97% of normal levels data from 13 September

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,385 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

59 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

black nevas

Optimum First Mortgage (Pear's acting group's promotional blog)

black nevas claims to have compromised this organization.

ransomhouse

Namibian Defence Force

ransomhouse claims to have compromised this organization.

audit team

AUDIT ENTITY: palletshop

audit team claims to have compromised this organization.

audit team

AUDIT ENTITY: Wise IT

audit team claims to have compromised this organization.

audit team

AUDIT ENTITY: buben

audit team claims to have compromised this organization.

audit team

AUDIT ENTITY: dg.ac.kr

audit team claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 8% of normal levels
  • Hong Kong — traffic at 23% of normal levels