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Horizon

Horizon — 27 September 2026

27 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 27 September 2026. Bangkok declared natural disaster zone · Trump rejects Iranian plan for Strait of Hormuz · Accelerated concentration in European air transport

The last thirty days

World

Major floods strike Asia and the United States while a historic mass gathers the pope and hundreds of thousands of faithful in Paris.

Illustration : Thailand
Illustration : ThailandPreecha.MJ · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Bangkok declared natural disaster zone

All districts of Bangkok were declared in a state of natural disaster following torrential rains that flooded the streets. Approximately 52,000 households were affected and nearly 4,900 people evacuated to shelters, although authorities indicate that rainfall subsequently eased.

Why it matters

A capital of several million inhabitants paralyzed by flooding illustrates the growing scale of extreme weather events in Southeast Asia.

02

Powerful storm hits northeastern United States

An unusually intense autumn storm swept across the northeastern United States, causing the cancellation of more than 400 flights and power outages affecting approximately 73,000 homes and businesses. One person died and major coastal flooding was feared between New Jersey and Long Island.

Why it matters

The event affects tens of millions of people across a wide portion of the American east coast, from Maine to Virginia.

United States4 sources
03

Pope Léon XIV gathers historic crowds in Paris

Pope Léon XIV celebrated a giant mass at Place de la Concorde in Paris before approximately 700,000 to 800,000 faithful according to Vatican estimates, before traveling to Lourdes. His visit reignites debates on the place of women in the Church and sexual violence committed within it, with a meeting scheduled Sunday with seven victims.

Why it matters

This is the first official papal visit to France in nearly two decades, with significance that extends beyond the national framework for the worldwide Catholic Church.

France4 sources
04

Floods and landslides in Nepal

Heavy rains caused floods and landslides across Nepal. In Rupandehi district, waters from the Tinau river swept away six houses in Butwal after the river level exceeded the alert threshold.

Why it matters

These repeated disasters also weaken regional energy infrastructure, a previous disaster having already removed 10% of the country's hydroelectric production capacity.

Nepal2 sources
05

Ferry sinking in Indonesia: death toll rises

The death toll from a ferry sinking in Indonesia has risen to 64, with 71 people still reported missing according to the national search and rescue agency.

Why it matters

A heavy human toll that continues to mount, revealing recurring risks of maritime transport in the Indonesian archipelago.

Indonesia1 source
06

Drought declared in India's richest state

A drought was declared in three-quarters of India's richest state, which is home to the megacity of Mumbai, following a prolonged period of low rainfall.

Why it matters

This drought affects a major economic region of India, with potential repercussions on the water supply of a megacity of several million inhabitants.

India1 source

Geopolitics

Washington rejects Iranian proposal on Strait of Hormuz while Russia-Europe tensions and strikes in Ukraine continue unabated.

Illustration : Tehran (Iran)
Illustration : Tehran (Iran)Amir Pashaei · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Trump rejects Iranian plan for Strait of Hormuz

Iran had proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for lifting sanctions and halting hostilities, but Donald Trump categorically rejected this offer, stating that Tehran was losing the war. Iran responded that it would not back down on its conditions and President Pezeshkian stated he no longer trusts discussions with Washington.

Why it matters

The diplomatic impasse over a strategic maritime route for global oil trade maintains a major source of tension between the two countries.

02

New cross strikes between Russia and Ukraine

At least 16 people were killed Saturday in reciprocal strikes between Russia and Ukraine, in a context of intensifying attacks. A Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia oblast killed at least one person, while Ukraine claims to have struck the Ilsky oil refinery in southern Russia.

Why it matters

The intensification of strikes on both sides confirms the continuation of a conflict lasting more than four years, with ongoing humanitarian consequences for civilians in both countries.

Ukraine Russia4 sources
03

Lavrov accuses Europe of sabotaging talks on Ukraine

Before the UN General Assembly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergueï Lavrov accused Europe of obstructing negotiations on Ukraine. He also met with his German counterpart Johann Wadephul, a first exchange of this type since the start of the Russian invasion.

Why it matters

These statements and this unprecedented meeting reflect the state of persistent diplomatic tensions between Russia and Western powers over the Ukrainian conflict.

Russia Germany4 sources
04

Ethiopia under threat of renewed civil war

The Ethiopian military promised restraint amid fears of a new civil war, four years after the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the conflict in the North. The military chief accuses Eritrea of financing and supporting armed groups to weaken Ethiopia, as clashes between federal army and rebel groups resumed this week.

Why it matters

A resumption of conflict in Ethiopia, the most populous country in the Horn of Africa, would have major regional repercussions on the stability of the entire zone.

Ethiopia Eritrea2 sources
05

New releases of political prisoners in Venezuela

Venezuela carried out new releases of political prisoners following a second round of talks between the government and opposition, as part of a process initiated after the signing of an amnesty law in January. Thirty-nine prisoners were released, but NGOs judge the pace of measures insufficient.

Why it matters

This negotiation process, although criticized for its slowness, constitutes a notable development in the Venezuelan political crisis closely followed by the international community.

Venezuela2 sources
06

European Union releases 710 million euros in humanitarian aid

The European Union announced the release of 710 million euros in aid to several crisis regions in the world, of which 380 million euros for sub-Saharan Africa devoted notably to the protection of vulnerable migrants. Other funds are intended for Palestine and Ukraine.

Why it matters

This massive aid testifies to the EU's continued commitment in the face of multiple simultaneous humanitarian crises around the world.

2 sources

Markets

Global markets remain calm, driven by indices in slight rise and sharp decline in oil prices.

Top story
01

Accelerated concentration in European air transport

The year 2026 is marked by numerous capital merger operations between airlines, from Korean Air to TAP Portugal via ITA or SAS, under pressure from soaring jet fuel prices.

Why it matters

This consolidation movement is durably transforming the landscape of international air transport under the effect of the energy shock.

02

Bank of France alarmed by absence of budget

The governor of the Bank of France urgently calls for the adoption of a budget, as the debt burden and public deficits weaken France's financial credibility with markets and rating agencies.

Why it matters

The budgetary situation of a major eurozone state like France has direct repercussions on the confidence of European markets.

1 source
France1 source
03

Trade agreement between European Union and Philippines

After a decade of stop-and-go negotiations, the European Union and the Philippines reached a substantial trade agreement, which according to analysts could pave the way for a broader agreement with all of ASEAN.

Why it matters

This trade agreement strengthens economic ties between Europe and Southeast Asia in a context of reshaping of global trade chains.

1 source
Philippines1 source

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,077.8 ↓ -0.04 %
DAX 25,408.64 ↑ +0.56 %
FTSE 100 10,695.25 ↑ +0.14 %
S&P 500 7,743.41 ↑ +0.51 %
Nasdaq 27,068.72 ↑ +0.48 %
Nikkei 225 66,364.2 ↑ +1.30 %
Hang Seng 24,510.09 ↓ -1.01 %
VIX 14.87 ↓ -5.11 %
Petrole Brent 97.44 ↓ -8.59 %
Gaz naturel 3.23 ↓ -2.18 %
Or 4,321.2 ↑ +0.54 %
EUR/USD 1.14 ↑ +0.23 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 84,582 USD ↑ +0.77 %
Ethereum 2,709.11 USD ↑ +0.87 %
BNB 774.34 USD ↑ +0.28 %
Solana 121.45 USD ↑ +0.96 %
XRP 1.52 USD ↓ -1.58 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 97.44 USD ↓ -8.59 %
Gaz naturel 3.23 USD ↓ -2.18 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 81% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 33% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 105% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Suez — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Panama — traffic at 90% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 88% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 103% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 91% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 96% of normal levels data from 20 September

Ormuz — trafic a 33% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-20)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,391 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

89 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

killsec3

🇹🇷

killsec3 claims to have compromised this organization.

killsec3

🇿🇦

killsec3 claims to have compromised this organization.

killsec3

🇵🇹

killsec3 claims to have compromised this organization.

killsec3

🇰🇪

killsec3 claims to have compromised this organization.

killsec3

🇴🇲

killsec3 claims to have compromised this organization.

killsec3

🇹🇭

killsec3 claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 5% of normal levels
  • Iraq — traffic at 12% of normal levels
  • Lao Peoples Democratic Republic — traffic at 41% of normal levels
  • Malaysia — traffic at 44% of normal levels