Horizon

Horizon — 24 September 2026

24 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 24 September 2026. Toxic smoke fog due to fires in Indonesia · Deadly Russian strikes on Kyiv · Fall in oil and rise in natural gas

The last thirty days

World

A massive haze of pollution is affecting Indonesia while health and social crises persist in several countries.

Toxic smoke fog due to fires in Indonesia

Indonesia

Approximately 175,000 people in Indonesia have suffered from respiratory diseases since August due to a thick smoke haze caused by forest fires.

Why it matters. This pollution is affecting an entire region of Southeast Asia and illustrates the lasting health impact of fires linked to deforestation.

Deadly measles among the Amish in Pennsylvania

United States

Four deaths linked to measles have been recorded in Pennsylvania, prompting health authorities to go door-to-door to convince Amish communities to get vaccinated.

Why it matters. The resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases in closed communities is concerning public health authorities beyond American borders.

A 'super El Niño' threatens health in India

India

A report estimates that a 'super El Niño' phenomenon could cause 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India, providing a glimpse of what climate change could impose within twenty years.

Why it matters. This climate phenomenon crosses Indian borders and provides a concrete measure of health risks linked to future warming.

Scientific breakthrough against strokes in China

China

Chinese scientists have developed the drug Loberamisal, which extends the treatment window for strokes from 6 hours to 2 days, protecting brain cells and improving chances of full recovery.

Why it matters. This medical advance could transform stroke management worldwide, where timing is currently decisive in limiting aftereffects.

Housing crisis in Spain symbolized by an eviction

2 sources

Spain

An 87-year-old woman, Maricarmen, was evicted from her Madrid apartment which she had occupied for 70 years, unable to pay the rent set by the company that recently purchased the property.

Why it matters. This episode illustrates a housing crisis affecting several major European cities confronted with the financialization of the rental market.

Geopolitics

Russian strikes on Kyiv continue as tensions intensify around Yemen, Iran and the Afghan-Pakistani border.

Deadly Russian strikes on Kyiv

4 sources

UkraineRussia

Russian missiles struck Kyiv on Thursday, killing at least two people and damaging infrastructure, shortly after Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow would not make a 'truce'. Zelensky denounced to the UN the murderous 'madness' of Putin and called for an end to this 'senseless war'.

Why it matters. The continuation of strikes on the Ukrainian capital, combined with Russian rejection of a truce, maintains the war in Ukraine at a sustained level of intensity with repercussions across Europe.

The Houthis take control of the strategic Bab Al-Mandab strait

4 sources

Yemen

The Houthi movement has taken control of the Bab Al-Mandab strait, at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, with the help of Iranian advisers who helped them seize the Yemeni coast in less than 48 hours. The city of Taez now fears being encircled.

Why it matters. This turning point strengthens Iran's position against the United States and threatens the security of global maritime commerce transiting through the Red Sea.

Pakistani strikes on Afghanistan after drone attacks

2 sources

PakistanAfghanistan

Pakistan conducted air strikes on ten sites in Afghanistan which it accuses of being used to launch and store drones, after shooting down eight devices fired from Afghan territory.

Why it matters. This escalation between two neighboring states further weakens an already unstable border and could destabilize the region.

Trump-Xi summit and extension of trade truce

4 sources

United StatesChina

Donald Trump gave an exceptional welcome to Xi Jinping upon his arrival in the United States, and Washington announced the extension until January of the Sino-American trade truce, just before their meeting at the White House.

Why it matters. This summit between the two leading world powers, covering trade, artificial intelligence and Taiwan, directly weighs on the global geopolitical balance.

Iranian president responds to Trump at the UN

4 sources

IranUnited States

Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian stated before the UN General Assembly that Iran had been a 'victim of terrorism', in response to Donald Trump's threats to 'annihilate' Iran. The American delegation left the room during his speech.

Why it matters. This verbal exchange at the highest level occurs in a context of persistent tensions between Washington and Tehran, with a risk of military escalation in the Middle East.

Diplomatic reconciliation between Rwanda and Belgium

RwandaBelgium

Brussels and Kigali announced the restoration of their diplomatic relations, eighteen months after a rupture decided by Rwanda which accused Belgium in the context of the war in the DRC.

Why it matters. This reconciliation between two states could facilitate a de-escalation in the regional conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Markets

Global markets remain calm despite a marked fall in oil prices and a rise in natural gas.

Fall in oil and rise in natural gas

2 sources

The Brent barrel fell 4.6% to 98.34 dollars while the price of natural gas jumped 5.69% to 3.19 dollars, in a context of tensions in the Middle East affecting energy supplies.

Why it matters. These variations directly affect the cost of energy for households and businesses on a global scale, particularly for aviation and industry.

Extension of trade truce between Washington and Beijing

3 sources

United StatesChina

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the extension until January of the trade truce between the United States and China, on the eve of the Trump-Xi summit.

Why it matters. This extension temporarily reduces commercial uncertainty between the two largest world economies, a factor closely monitored by markets.

U.S. Treasury bond yields at their highest since 2007

United States

The yield on U.S. ten-year Treasury bonds reached 5.1%, its highest level since July 2007, driven by the strength of the American economy, inflation and high oil prices.

Why it matters. Such a rise in American rates increases the cost of debt worldwide and influences the decisions of central banks.

Italy authorizes the return of civil nuclear energy

Italy

The Italian Senate gave final approval to legislation allowing the return of nuclear energy, nearly forty years after abandoning this sector following the Chernobyl disaster.

Why it matters. This energy reversal by a major European economy could influence the energy policies of other countries on the continent.

The OECD raises its global growth forecast but downgrades France

2 sources

France

The OECD slightly raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, despite the energy shock linked to the war in the Middle East, while pointing to France as the underperformer in the zone.

Why it matters. These forecasts influence investor expectations on the economic trajectory of major zones and on France's specific situation.

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,123.41 ↓ -0.19 %
DAX 25,410.63 ↓ -0.64 %
FTSE 100 10,705.26 ↓ -0.31 %
S&P 500 7,706.03 ↓ -0.76 %
Nasdaq 26,936.04 ↓ -0.69 %
Nikkei 225 65,653.42 ↑ +0.98 %
Hang Seng 24,741.69 ↓ -0.37 %
VIX 15.18 ↑ +2.08 %
Petrole Brent 98.34 ↓ -4.60 %
Gaz naturel 3.19 ↑ +5.69 %
Or 4,318.8 ↑ +0.01 %
EUR/USD 1.14 ↓ -0.49 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 84,172 USD ↓ -2.60 %
Ethereum 2,687.47 USD ↓ -2.47 %
BNB 771.11 USD ↓ -2.41 %
Solana 115.1 USD ↓ -3.00 %
XRP 1.51 USD ↓ -6.73 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 98.34 USD ↓ -4.60 %
Gaz naturel 3.19 USD ↑ +5.69 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 81% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 33% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 105% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Suez — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Panama — traffic at 90% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 88% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 103% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 91% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 96% of normal levels data from 20 September

Ormuz — trafic a 33% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-20)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,391 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

68 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

the gentlemen

Ligue se Grupo

the gentlemen claims to have compromised this organization.

space bears

Tomix / Grupo JOPER

space bears claims to have compromised this organization.

brain cipher

goldstarfinancial.com

brain cipher claims to have compromised this organization.

emperador

OnTrac

emperador claims to have compromised this organization.

rhysida

Legis

rhysida claims to have compromised this organization.

lockbit5

anery.com.br

lockbit5 claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Guyana — traffic at 25% of normal levels