Horizon

Horizon — 19 September 2026

19 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

The last thirty days

World

An uncertain Ebola epidemic in DRC and devastating floods in Nepal dominate non-state news.

The peak of the Ebola epidemic in DRC remains uncertain

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Africa CDC, the health agency of the African Union, states that the peak of the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still not confirmed, a position that contrasts with other assessments.

Why it matters. An uncontrolled Ebola epidemic represents a regional health risk in Central Africa.

After the floods, a traumatized Nepal seeks its bearings

3 sources

NepalChina

In several localities in Nepal such as Betrawati and Devighat, survivors of devastating floods find little trace of their former lives. Nepalese youth express growing climate anxiety in the face of these repeated disasters at the border with Tibet.

Why it matters. The event illustrates the cross-border impact of climate change in the Himalayas and raises the question of regional early warning systems.

An Indonesian ferry capsized, more than a hundred people still being searched for

Indonesia

After the capsizing of a ferry in Indonesia, divers found three bodies while 126 people remain missing. Poor weather conditions forced authorities to begin operations to right the wreck.

Why it matters. A potentially very heavy human toll in a maritime disaster affecting a large number of passengers.

A Google artificial intelligence hacks three companies during a test

4 sources

Google's Gemini artificial intelligence model succeeded in breaking into the systems of three companies by guessing login credentials during a security test conducted by an independent assessment company.

Why it matters. This incident revives global concerns about the security risks posed by the growing autonomy of artificial intelligence systems.

Exceptional heat wave in Martinique linked to El Niño

Martinique is experiencing a new heat wave with record temperatures recorded in recent weeks, a phenomenon attributed in particular to El Niño, which is particularly intense this year.

Why it matters. The El Niño climate phenomenon has repercussions on several regions of the world, here even in the Caribbean.

Geopolitics

The United States concludes a major agreement on Greenland and tightens sanctions against Russia, while tensions in Yemen reach Riyadh.

US-Danish agreement on Greenland security

3 sources

GreenlandDenmark

Donald Trump announced an agreement with Denmark and Greenland giving him "permanent control" over the security of this Arctic territory, preventing any Washington "adversary" from establishing a military presence there. Denmark welcomed an agreement "good for NATO and Europe", ending the dispute born from American annexation ambitions. The agreement is to be signed next week at the UN General Assembly.

Why it matters. This agreement ends a diplomatic crisis between Washington and its European allies over the sovereignty of a strategic Arctic territory.

Trump signs massive sanctions law against Russia

4 sources

United StatesRussia

Donald Trump signed the Graham law, offering an unprecedented range of sanctions against Moscow and its trading partners, including India and China, with tariffs potentially reaching 100% on buyers of Russian oil and gas. Democratic lawmakers regret that the text leaves the White House wide discretion in its implementation.

Why it matters. This law could have major commercial consequences for India and China, the main buyers of Russian oil, and redefines Western pressure on Moscow.

First air alerts in Riyadh since Houthi escalation

4 sources

Saudi ArabiaYemen

Explosions were heard in Riyadh early Saturday following an air alert, a first for the Saudi capital in the context of growing pressure exerted by Houthi fighters from Yemen. The Houthis claim that Saudi Arabia conducted 26 strikes in Yemen in 24 hours.

Why it matters. The extension of attacks to the Saudi capital marks a regional escalation in the Yemeni conflict, previously concentrated in other areas.

Deadly jihadist attack on a police headquarters in Pakistan

4 sources

Pakistan

A car bomb and automatic weapons attack on police headquarters in Kohat, Pakistan, killed at least 31 people including 16 police officers. The attack was claimed by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group allied with the Afghan Taliban.

Why it matters. This attack illustrates the intensification of tensions between Pakistan and armed Islamist groups operating from Afghanistan.

Deadly jihadist attack on a military camp in Mali

Mali

At least 100 Malian soldiers and five Russian mercenaries were killed in an attack on a military camp in Dioura, in central Mali, on September 10. The attack was claimed by the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), affiliated with Al-Qaeda.

Why it matters. This heavy toll confirms the security deterioration in the Sahel and the vulnerability of Malian forces supported by Russian mercenaries.

Macron alerts on intensification of Russian hybrid warfare in Europe

4 sources

FranceRussia

Emmanuel Macron brought together presidential candidates and party leaders to inform them of the gravity of the international situation, evoking an intensification of hybrid attacks attributed to Russia against French and European critical infrastructure. The French president announced his intention to strengthen the plan to defend against drones.

Why it matters. This alert confirms an escalation of indirect confrontation between Russia and European countries, beyond the Ukrainian conflict.

Markets

European stock markets decline sharply, driven by the fall in oil and energy concerns, while Wall Street remains stable.

Sharp fall in Brent oil

The Brent barrel fell 5.28% to settle at $99.29, a marked decline that comes as JP Morgan bank acknowledges difficulty in forecasting oil prices due to the war between the United States and Iran.

Why it matters. Uncertainties in the oil market directly affect pump prices and household budgets in Europe, particularly in France and Germany.

Germany announces relief in fuel prices

Germany

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced measures to ease the fuel bill for Germans, facing high pump prices due to disruptions in the global oil market.

Why it matters. This measure illustrates the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on the purchasing power of European households.

French government announces new budget deficit overshoot

3 sources

France

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu acknowledged a new overshoot of France's public deficit, now at 5.4% of GDP this year, while promising a correction effort of 54 billion euros for 2027 to bring it back to 5% of GDP.

Why it matters. France's budget trajectory, the second largest economy in the eurozone, is closely monitored by markets and European partners.

The Kremlin confiscates Russian assets of Auchan, Leroy Merlin and Nestlé

Russia

By decree signed on September 17, Vladimir Putin entrusted the Russian assets of Auchan, Leroy Merlin, Nestlé as well as FM Logistic to a previously unknown Russian microenterprise.

Why it matters. This confiscation illustrates the economic escalation between Russia and Western companies still present on its territory.

Warren Buffett steps down as president of Berkshire Hathaway

2 sources

United States

Warren Buffett, 96, announced he was stepping down as president of Berkshire Hathaway after more than sixty years leading the conglomerate, which he had transformed from a struggling textile mill into a group worth 1 trillion dollars. His son Howard Buffett succeeds him as president.

Why it matters. This departure marks the end of an era for one of the most influential investors in the history of global financial markets.

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,065.02 ↓ -1.49 %
DAX 25,304.06 ↓ -1.60 %
FTSE 100 10,659.13 ↓ -1.45 %
S&P 500 7,650.5 ↑ +0.17 %
Nasdaq 26,522.54 ↑ +0.39 %
Nikkei 225 65,018.95 ↑ +1.38 %
Hang Seng 24,750.78 ↑ +0.60 %
VIX 14.81 ↓ -4.08 %
Petrole Brent 99.29 ↓ -5.28 %
Gaz naturel 2.91 ↑ +0.38 %
Or 4,424.9 ↑ +0.57 %
EUR/USD 1.15 ↑ +0.11 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 80,931 USD ↑ +4.46 %
Ethereum 2,623.44 USD ↑ +5.68 %
BNB 762.07 USD ↑ +1.34 %
Solana 111.49 USD ↑ +5.65 %
XRP 1.42 USD ↑ +7.54 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 99.29 USD ↓ -5.28 %
Gaz naturel 2.91 USD ↑ +0.38 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 84% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 83% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 104% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Suez — traffic at 95% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Panama — traffic at 97% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 76% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 92% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 97% of normal levels data from 13 September

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,393 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

56 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

play

Vista Plastic Solutions

play claims to have compromised this organization.

play

Inglewood Golf

play claims to have compromised this organization.

play

Barrett Mahony Consulting Engineers

play claims to have compromised this organization.

anubis

Quest Group

anubis claims to have compromised this organization.

gammax

Premier Lighting & Controls

gammax claims to have compromised this organization.

securotrop

Prefix Corp

securotrop claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 0% of normal levels