25 September 2026
Briefing for 25 September 2026. Deadly shipwreck on Lake Tanganyika in DRC · Houthis strike Saudi Arabia, France sends troops · Oil prices supported by Houthi attacks
A deadly maritime disaster in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and massive forest fires in Indonesia dominate non-state news of the day.
A boat capsized on Lake Tanganyika in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, killing at least 41 people. Forty-nine passengers were rescued and search operations continue for missing persons.
This type of shipwreck, frequent on overcrowded African lakes, illustrates a recurring safety problem in river transport in the region.
Nearly 900,000 hectares have burned in Indonesia since the beginning of the year, notably in southern Sumatra and Kalimantan. Toxic fumes are invading homes, transformed into suffocating prisons for residents.
These fumes cross borders and affect air quality throughout Southeast Asia, a recurring phenomenon with regional health consequences.
Indonesia1 source
More than 1,400 people have died and 6,000 remain missing after floods and a glacial disaster that occurred in August in Nepal. The country is requesting donations rather than loans to finance reconstruction, valued in billions of dollars.
The Nepalese Prime Minister presented this event as a global warning about climate change, with a call for responsibility from wealthy countries.
Nepal4 sources
Hurricane Polo is striking communities in southwestern Mexico while Hurricane Nolo is strengthening near Hawaii, which faces its third cyclone threat of the year.
These simultaneous weather phenomena are affecting two distinct regions of the Pacific and illustrate an intense cyclone season.
Mexico
United States1 source
Heavy snowfall has forced the cancellation of expeditions on Manaslu, one of Nepal's highest mountains. A four-day national alert was triggered from September 24.
This episode adds to the climate difficulties Nepal is already facing after the deadly floods in August.
Nepal1 source
Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia are intensifying and pushing France to send military resources, while Israel's diplomatic isolation is increasing at the UN.
Yemen's Houthis, backed by Iran, attacked several areas of Saudi Arabia on Thursday with missiles and drones, notably targeting Aramco oil facilities. Emmanuel Macron announced the deployment of French military resources to protect a key energy site, while Saudi Arabia claims to have intercepted six ballistic missiles. Brent crude exceeded 106 dollars following these attacks.
This escalation threatens a major oil axis and is pushing a Western power to engage militarily in the region, with a risk of the Yemeni conflict spreading.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected accusations of genocide against Israel before the UN General Assembly, calling them the "biggest lie of the century". Several delegations left the hall before his speech, and protests took place in New York, with more than 100 arrests, including well-known figures.
This growing diplomatic isolation of Israel, amid Netanyahu's election campaign, illustrates a lasting international fracture over the Gaza war.
Israel4 sources
Donald Trump received Xi Jinping at the White House for a lavish state dinner celebrating "strategic stability" between the two countries. Despite the cordial atmosphere, no significant progress was achieved on trade, technology or Taiwan.
The relationship between the two largest economic powers in the world determines trade flows and global geopolitical stability.
United States
China4 sources
Rebel authorities in Tigray declared they are in "total war" against the Ethiopian government, as fighting pits federal forces against armed groups in the region. The Ethiopian army claims to have repelled new attacks.
A resumption of civil war in Tigray, after the deadly 2020-2022 conflict, would again threaten the stability of the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia3 sources
A fire broke out at a Polish telecommunications station connected to the Starlink network, which notably provides internet coverage to Ukraine. The Polish government evokes sabotage, while Denmark alerts to a growing Russian threat.
This incident affects critical infrastructure for the Ukrainian war effort and is part of a series of acts attributed to Russian destabilization attempts in Europe.
Poland2 sources
Pakistan conducted air strikes targeting ten sites in Afghanistan, killing four civilians according to Kabul. Islamabad claims to have also thwarted an Afghan attack at the border, killing several Taliban fighters.
This border escalation between two neighboring states that are nuclear or close to nuclear powers further weakens South Asian regional security.
Pakistan
Afghanistan4 sources
Global markets remain broadly stable, with slight declines in Europe and Hong Kong offset by the firmness of the Nikkei, in a climate of low volatility.
Brent crude exceeded 106 dollars after the Houthis claimed successful attacks against Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia. Brent is now trading at 105.57 dollars according to the latest market data.
A prolonged disruption of Saudi oil supplies would have repercussions on global energy prices.
France's 10-year borrowing rate climbed to 4.69% on Thursday, bringing the spread with Germany to an unprecedented level since 2012. This increase is added to the oil shock that is pushing central banks to revise their expectations.
A sustained deterioration in borrowing conditions for a major European economy could affect market confidence throughout the eurozone.
France1 source
European gasoil contracts gained up to 7% after Donald Trump's statements evoking a plan to temporarily ban American diesel exports. Prices continue to rise in this context of uncertainty.
A restriction on American diesel exports would have a direct effect on energy costs for European consumers and businesses.
United States2 sources
The average rate for 30-year American home loans reached 7.03% on September 24, its highest level since January 2025. Some observers even mention the possibility of rates at 8%, as the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is rising sharply.
This increase is weighing on the American real estate market and fueling political debates around debt, with possible repercussions on global growth.
United States3 sources
Economist Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and advocate of restrictive monetary policy, is leaving the institution to join the IMF, one year before the end of her term.
This departure comes in a context of upcoming renewal within the ECB and could influence the future direction of European monetary policy.
Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.
| Value | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| CAC 40 | 8,093.82 | ↑ +0.15 % |
| DAX | 25,463.77 | ↑ +0.78 % |
| FTSE 100 | 10,712.93 | ↑ +0.31 % |
| S&P 500 | 7,704.13 | ↓ -0.02 % |
| Nasdaq | 26,939.37 | ↑ +0.01 % |
| Nikkei 225 | 66,364.2 | ↑ +1.30 % |
| Hang Seng | 24,510.09 | ↓ -1.01 % |
| VIX | 15.38 | ↓ -1.85 % |
| Petrole Brent | 98.66 | ↓ -7.45 % |
| Gaz naturel | 3.24 | ↓ -1.70 % |
| Or | 4,342.7 | ↑ +1.04 % |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | ↑ +0.17 % |
General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.
| Value | Price | 24h change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 84,449 USD | ↑ +1.42 % |
| Ethereum | 2,701.56 USD | ↑ +2.45 % |
| BNB | 775.14 USD | ↑ +1.22 % |
| Solana | 118.13 USD | ↑ +4.51 % |
| XRP | 1.55 USD | ↑ +6.17 % |
aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes
General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.
A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.
| Value | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Petrole Brent | 98.66 USD | ↓ -7.45 % |
| Gaz naturel | 3.24 USD | ↓ -1.70 % |
Ormuz — trafic a 33% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-20)
Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.
No new entries since the last reading.
19,391 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN
78 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.
efada.sa
krybit claims to have compromised this organization.
NEAD Pro
rhysida claims to have compromised this organization.
welgenone.com
inc ransom claims to have compromised this organization.
ukbjja.org
inc ransom claims to have compromised this organization.
bnlawmacau.com www.bn-ip.com
inc ransom claims to have compromised this organization.
Prater & Ridley Attorneys At Law
wallstreet claims to have compromised this organization.
Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.