Horizon

Horizon — 18 September 2026

18 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Markets calm, geopolitics under strain.

The last thirty days

World

The death toll from floods in Nepal continues to mount as several natural disasters strike Asia and Europe.

The death toll from floods in Nepal exceeds 1,400

Nepal

The death toll from flash floods in Nepal has reached 1,410, with more than 6,100 people still reported missing. Approximately 13,756 people were rescued in the affected areas.

Why it matters. This is a natural disaster of exceptional scale due to the number of victims and missing persons in a single country.

Deadly floods in northern Vietnam

2 sources

Vietnam

Heavy rains caused floods and landslides in northern Vietnam, killing three people and damaging approximately 16,000 homes as well as more than 22,000 hectares of crops.

Why it matters. A climate disaster affecting tens of thousands of people and a large agricultural area.

Floods in Catalonia and Valencia

Spain

Torrential rains and flash floods struck the Barcelona region, causing major disruptions in Catalonia and Valencia, in northeastern Spain. One death was recorded.

Why it matters. An extreme weather episode affecting several Spanish regions simultaneously.

Recurring floods in Tunis

Tunisia

Heavy rains disrupted daily life in the Tunisian capital, trapping motorists and residents and raising once again the question of drainage and transport.

Why it matters. Recurring floods that raise questions about the preparedness of urban infrastructure to face climate events.

Decline in childhood vaccination in Europe since Covid-19

A study published by The Lancet shows that at least four out of seven childhood vaccines studied are in decline in 16 European Union countries since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Why it matters. A decline in vaccination coverage across several European countries poses a collective health risk.

Shipwreck in the Java Sea: 129 people still being searched for

Indonesia

Indonesia launched an operation to right a ship that capsized in the Java Sea, as 129 people remain missing. The plan consists of pulling the ship toward shallower seabed before righting it.

Why it matters. A major maritime accident with a high number of missing persons mobilizes significant rescue resources.

Geopolitics

Tensions intensify in Yemen and the Red Sea as Russia organizes legislative elections under military strain.

Houthi offensive in the Red Sea and deadly clashes in Yemen

4 sources

YemenSaudi Arabia

Houthi rebels achieved their largest territorial advance in years, taking control of the Red Sea coast up to the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb. New fighting between Yemeni forces, Houthis and the Saudi army killed at least 63 people, causing a massive exodus of civilians. Italy announced the deployment of warships to protect maritime traffic.

Why it matters. This offensive threatens a strategic global maritime passage point and reignites a regional conflict with repercussions on international trade and energy prices.

Russian legislative elections under scrutiny amid full-scale war

4 sources

RussiaUkraine

Polling stations opened Friday in Russia for three days of legislative elections, the first since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine. The ruling party United Russia is given as assured winner. During the night, approximately 350 Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow, with several dozen shot down over the capital.

Why it matters. This election without real pluralism confirms the ruling power's grip amid war, while the intensification of drone strikes on Moscow illustrates the continuation of the conflict.

U.S. Congress adopts new sanctions against Russia

2 sources

United StatesRussia

American lawmakers approved a new package of sanctions against Russia and its allies due to the war in Ukraine. The text, supported by Donald Trump, potentially provides for tariffs reaching 100% targeting notably India.

Why it matters. These sanctions broaden international economic pressure on Russia and could affect the commercial relations of several third countries.

Russian strike on shopping center in Zaporizhzhia

Ukraine

A Russian strike hit a shopping center in Zaporizhzhia, in southeastern Ukraine, causing a major fire.

Why it matters. This strike illustrates the continuation of Russian bombardments on Ukrainian civilian areas.

United States grants visas to Iranian officials for the UN

4 sources

United StatesIran

The American administration approved visas for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi so they can attend the UN General Assembly in New York, despite more than six months of conflict between Iran and the United States. At the same time, a visa was again denied to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

Why it matters. This decision, unusual amid full-scale war, opens a possible diplomatic window between Washington and Tehran.

Poland accuses Russia of preparing drone strikes on NATO

PolandRussia

Poland warned that Russia is preparing drone or rocket strikes on NATO territory, which would be presented as accidental. The Polish prime minister announced he would travel to Ukraine, shortly after European leaders narrowly escaped a drone strike.

Why it matters. This alert underscores a risk of direct escalation between Russia and NATO member countries.

Markets

Global markets advance sharply, driven by a marked decline in the VIX and indices rising across all exchanges.

Bank of Japan raises rates to a 31-year high

4 sources

Japan

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 1 to 1.25%, a level unseen in 31 years, in order to counter inflation fueled by rising energy prices linked to the Middle East crisis.

Why it matters. This Japanese monetary tightening, rare in its historical scale, has repercussions on foreign exchange markets and international capital flows.

2027 Budget in France: 54 billion euros effort announced

4 sources

France

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu unveiled his budget guidelines for 2027, aiming to contain the public deficit at 5% of GDP after a slip to 5.4% this year. The project provides for a freeze on the civil service pay scale and cost-saving measures on social spending, drawing strong criticism from opposition parties.

Why it matters. French budget choices are being scrutinized by Brussels and markets, in a context of high debt in the eurozone.

Spain brings its public debt back below 100% of GDP

SpainFrance

Spain managed to bring its public debt back below the 100% of GDP mark, while France continues to borrow at record levels in its recent auctions.

Why it matters. This contrast between budget trajectories of two major eurozone economies is closely followed by European bond markets.

Financial difficulties for airlines AirAsia and Air Baltic

4 sources

MalaysiaLatvia

Malaysian airline AirAsia sees its shares plunge 21% amid financing concerns, while Latvian airline Air Baltic requested its placement under protection of Chapter 11 of American bankruptcy law while asserting it remains solvent.

Why it matters. These difficulties in the low-cost airline sector illustrate financial tensions that could affect regional connectivity and employment.

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,186.93 ↑ +0.57 %
DAX 25,716.71 ↑ +0.70 %
FTSE 100 10,816.14 ↑ +1.19 %
S&P 500 7,637.76 ↑ +1.14 %
Nasdaq 26,418.3 ↑ +1.69 %
Nikkei 225 65,188.62 ↑ +1.64 %
Hang Seng 24,841.79 ↑ +0.97 %
VIX 15.44 ↓ -12.82 %
Petrole Brent 103.02 ↓ -1.72 %
Gaz naturel 2.86 ↓ -1.38 %
Or 4,429.4 ↑ +0.68 %
EUR/USD 1.15 ↑ +0.13 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 77,470 USD ↑ +1.35 %
Ethereum 2,481.97 USD ↑ +1.74 %
BNB 751.9 USD ↑ +3.80 %
Solana 105.52 USD ↑ +5.92 %
XRP 1.32 USD ↑ +1.77 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 103.02 USD ↓ -1.72 %
Gaz naturel 2.86 USD ↓ -1.38 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 84% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 83% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 104% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Suez — traffic at 95% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Panama — traffic at 97% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 76% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 92% of normal levels data from 13 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 97% of normal levels data from 13 September

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

  • EMPRESA DE SERVICIOS TECNICOS DE COMPUTACION COMUNICACIONES Y ELECTRONICA — CUBA-EO14404
  • EMPRESA DE INGENIERIA Y PROYECTOS DEL NIQUEL — CUBA-EO14404
  • CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIONES DEL NIQUEL CAPITAN ALBERTO FERNANDEZ MONTES DE OCA — CUBA-EO14404
  • PINARES S.A. — CUBA-EO14404
  • PISHTAZ SIMORGH ELECTRONIC TRADE COMPANY — IRAN, IRAN-EO13902
  • BITBANK — IRAN, IRAN-EO13902
  • ZAKER HOSSEIN, Hossein Ali — IRAN, IRAN-EO13902
  • ZAKER HOSSEIN, Mohammad Mahdi — IRAN, IRAN-EO13902
  • HEIDARI, Seyed Adel — IRAN, IRAN-EO13902
  • CENTRO DE INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO DE SIMULADORES — CUBA-EO14404
  • CANCIO MONTEAGUDO, Joaquin Francisco — CUBA-EO14404
  • CENTRO DE INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO NAVAL — CUBA-EO14404
  • PEDRERA ARGUELLO, Dioglis — CUBA-EO14404
  • CENTRO DE INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO DE ARMAMENTO DE INFANTERIA — CUBA-EO14404
  • HURTADO BETANCOURT, Julio — CUBA-EO14404

19,399 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

53 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

krybit

www.harputyapi.com

krybit claims to have compromised this organization.

krybit

www.diakonie-apolda.de

krybit claims to have compromised this organization.

qilin

Vigatec

qilin claims to have compromised this organization.

qilin

Invincible GG

qilin claims to have compromised this organization.

chaos

expresspros.com

chaos claims to have compromised this organization.

ransomhouse

Pertamina

ransomhouse claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 4% of normal levels