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Horizon

Horizon — 1 October 2026

1 October 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 1 October 2026. Record melting of Swiss glaciers · Flydubai flight diverted after stabbing · Inflation exceeds 3% in France

The last thirty days

World

Swiss glaciers are experiencing a marked melting year, deadly landslides are striking Nepal and the botched execution of Christa Pike in the United States is making headlines.

Archive image : Earth Observations taken by the Expedition 13 crew (2006)
Archive image : Earth Observations taken by the Expedition 13 crew (2006)NASA / JSC · Public domain · NASA
Top story
01

Record melting of Swiss glaciers

Swiss glaciers have lost approximately 5% of their ice this year following heat waves, according to scientists, who describe it as a catastrophic year. They have lost nearly 20% of their mass in five years, with 2026 being the second worst year on record.

Why it matters

This rapid melting threatens water reserves and illustrates the pace of climate disruption.

02

New deadly landslides in Nepal

A month after catastrophic floods, approximately 30 people have died in landslides and violent rains in Nepal. Hikers had to be evacuated by helicopter from the mountains.

Why it matters

These new episodes are worsening a situation already marked by massive floods last month.

1 source
Nepal1 source
03

Measles and malaria kill children in India

At least 32 children have died since May in Balaghat district, India, amid measles and malaria outbreaks.

Why it matters

This toll shows the persistence of preventable diseases in isolated areas.

1 source
India1 source
04

Measles spreading in the United States

Pennsylvania has confirmed a fifth death associated with measles. Cases have more than doubled since August, while a dispute with federal health authorities over death count continues.

Why it matters

The epidemic is spreading in a country where the disease was considered under control.

1 source
United States1 source
05

Botched execution of Christa Pike in Tennessee

Christa Pike, sentenced to death in 1996 for a murder committed in 1995, survived two doses of pentobarbital. She was still breathing and snoring, according to witnesses, and was transferred to hospital. Tennessee has suspended executions.

Why it matters

An unprecedented failure, according to a death penalty specialist, which reignites the debate over execution methods.

United States4 sources

In brief

Geopolitics

A Flydubai flight was diverted after a pilot stabbing, London suspects Iran in an attack plot, Russia strikes Ukraine's energy network and American troops have left Iraq.

Illustration : Israel
Illustration : Israelvivali · CC BY 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Flydubai flight diverted after stabbing

A pilot on Flydubai flight Dubai-Tel Aviv was stabbed by his colleague, who attempted to cause a crash according to Benjamin Netanyahu. The aircraft dropped 17,000 feet in less than two minutes before being diverted to Saudi Arabia, where the co-pilot is being questioned. Passengers and crew members overpowered the attacker and the aircraft proceeded to Tel Aviv.

Why it matters

The incident, described as an attempted attack by Israel, led Flydubai to suspend its flights to and from Israel. The motive remains unknown, according to the Israeli Prime Minister.

02

London suspects Iran in an attack plot at Fairford

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham says he has 'solid indications' that Iran is involved in a suspected attack plot against RAF Fairford air base, used by Americans. Three white vans appeared to be heading there. Tehran angrily denies.

Why it matters

This is the first official British confirmation of possible Iranian involvement.

United Kingdom Iran3 sources
03

Russia strikes Ukraine's energy network

Russia launched its largest attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure since spring, targeting 11 regions. Power cuts affected Kyiv, and seven people including a child died. Ukraine says it shot down or neutralized 254 drones.

Why it matters

Ukraine warns of a 20 billion dollar defense financing shortfall.

Ukraine Russia4 sources
04

Last American and British troops leave Iraq

The last American and British troops have left Iraq, ending the mission against the Islamic State and an American presence that began in 2003. Iraqis celebrated their Sovereignty Day.

Why it matters

This withdrawal, provided for by an agreement concluded two years ago, responds to a key demand of the Iraqi government.

Iraq3 sources
05

Pakistani strikes in Afghanistan

Pakistan says it killed 22 fighters in air strikes in Afghanistan. Kabul says strikes on Kunar and Helmand killed nine people, including women and children, and says it killed 41 insurgents from Pakistan.

Why it matters

Fighting is intensifying between the two neighboring countries.

Pakistan Afghanistan3 sources
06

Fighting worsens in Tigray, Ethiopia

Fighting in Tigray has killed 52 civilians, according to a doctor interviewed by the BBC. It has spread to neighboring regions and is trapping tourists in Lalibela.

Why it matters

The spread of fighting threatens stability in northern Ethiopia.

1 source
Ethiopia1 source
07

Mine explosions between the two Koreas

Mine explosions in the demilitarized zone wounded three South Korean soldiers. President Lee Jae-myung calls on Pyongyang to resume dialogue, while the North denies and announces nuclear-powered submarines by the mid-2030s.

Why it matters

The incident reignites tensions in the Korean peninsula.

South Korea North Korea3 sources
08

London ends migrant exchange agreement with Paris

The United Kingdom has ended the migrant exchange agreement concluded with France in 2025 for one year. Paris says it is discussing with London the terms of exit.

Why it matters

The end of the agreement relaunches the question of managing Channel crossings.

1 source
United Kingdom France1 source

In brief

Markets

Markets remain calm, but Brent retreats nearly 6% and the Nikkei advances 3.3%, while French inflation reaches 3% and energy prices weigh on Europe.

Illustration : France
Illustration : FrancePierre Blaché from Paris, France · CC0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Inflation exceeds 3% in France

Consumer prices rose 3% year-on-year in September in France, and 3.4% for the European reference indicator, according to INSEE. The surge in energy prices and fuel are driving the increase, and the reference gas price climbs 6.3% on October 1.

Why it matters

The price increase erodes household purchasing power at a time when the state budget is already under strain.

02

Fuel weighs on Europe

New highs reached by oil prices are burdening European household budgets and company margins, and fueling inflation. Governments are multiplying aid measures. In the United Kingdom, fuel prices are at record levels and energy bills are expected to see their largest increase in four years.

Why it matters

The energy shock is affecting several European countries and pushing states to intervene.

3 sources
03

French 2027 budget and record debt

French public debt reaches 119% of GDP, or 59.6 billion euros more in the second quarter, according to INSEE. The government presents its 2027 budget targeting 54 billion euros in savings to bring the deficit to 5%.

Why it matters

The rise in rates caused by the energy shock will increase the debt burden, and the rate spread with Germany reflects market nervousness.

France4 sources
04

Sharp rise in global bond yields

Global bond yields have increased very rapidly in recent months, and American yields are posting their strongest increase in a generation. The American public debt market, worth over 30 trillion dollars, is not spared.

Why it matters

This rise in rates is worrying investors, who fear an impact on equities.

United States2 sources
05

Paramount authorized to buy Warner Bros

An American judge validated the agreement between Paramount Skydance and twelve American states, authorizing the purchase of Warner Bros for 110 billion dollars. The agreement ends nearly three months of proceedings for risk of harm to competition.

Why it matters

This operation of unprecedented scale raises questions about media concentration.

United States3 sources
06

Donald Trump announces 200 billion dollars in South Korean investments

Donald Trump announces up to 200 billion dollars in South Korean energy investments in the United States, including 54 billion for a liquefied natural gas pipeline in Alaska. Seoul is tempering expectations, with no decision having been made.

Why it matters

An announcement of energy and commercial scope between Washington and Seoul, which remains to be confirmed.

United States South Korea3 sources
07

Trump's attacks on Jerome Powell resume

The Federal Reserve's inspector general found no reasonable grounds justifying criminal prosecution against the former head of the institution, Jerome Powell. Donald Trump has resumed his attacks on him.

Why it matters

The report rules out any grounds for criminal prosecution against the former head of the American central bank.

United States2 sources
08

South Korean exports hit record

South Korean exports surge 83.5% and exceed 120 billion dollars for the first time, driven by semiconductor demand. Micron also exceeded expectations with 54.23 billion dollars in revenue in the fourth quarter.

Why it matters

The rise of artificial intelligence is supporting global demand for memory chips.

South Korea2 sources

In brief

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 7,964.51 ↓ -0.89 %
DAX 25,199.19 ↓ -0.79 %
FTSE 100 10,606 ↓ -0.29 %
S&P 500 7,651.54 ↓ -0.25 %
Nasdaq 26,861.06 ↑ +0.24 %
Nikkei 225 68,942.2 ↑ +3.28 %
Hang Seng 24,613.27 ↑ +0.37 %
VIX 16.34 ↑ +1.87 %
Petrole Brent 97.43 ↓ -5.89 %
Gaz naturel 2.98 ↓ -1.62 %
Or 4,218.8 ↑ +0.77 %
EUR/USD 1.13 ↓ -0.15 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 84,197 USD ↑ +1.34 %
Ethereum 2,716.3 USD ↑ +2.00 %
BNB 770.94 USD ↑ +1.58 %
Solana 119.28 USD ↑ +0.66 %
XRP 1.5 USD ↑ +0.46 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 97.43 USD ↓ -5.89 %
Gaz naturel 2.98 USD ↓ -1.62 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 90% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 50% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Suez — traffic at 93% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Panama — traffic at 87% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 77% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 110% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 94% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 27 September

Ormuz — trafic a 50% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-27)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

  • RIVAS NUNEZ, Juan Gabriel — SDGT, TCO
  • CANELON AGUIRRE, Anibal Alexander — SDGT, TCO
  • MARTINEZ ARMENTA, Carlos Javier — SDGT, TCO
  • MEJIA CASTILLO, Alejandro — SDGT, TCO
  • GALEANO BAZURTO, Jose Dario — SDGT, TCO
  • CARDENAS ARZOLA, Eric Gabriel — SDGT, TCO
  • MARTINEZ PIRONA, Oscar Leonardo — SDGT, TCO
  • GALEANO BASURTO, Aslhy Javier — SDGT, TCO
  • HERNANDEZ GUERRERO, Anthony Wuiliam — SDGT, TCO
  • SOLUCIONES INTEGRALES TOLUCA, S.A. DE C.V. — SDGT, TCO
  • ENIGMA COMMUNITY, S. DE R.L. DE C.V. — SDGT, TCO

19,452 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

94 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

lockbit5

consilio.com

lockbit5 claims to have compromised this organization.

black x

engic tech

black x claims to have compromised this organization.

the gentlemen

Zelham

the gentlemen claims to have compromised this organization.

pear

Software Answers, a Banyan Software Company

pear claims to have compromised this organization.

n0n

Houston Thyroid & Endocrine Specialists

n0n claims to have compromised this organization.

eclipse

The Japan Times

eclipse claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 5% of normal levels
  • Swaziland — traffic at 47% of normal levels