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Horizon

Horizon — 11 October 2026

Sunday 11 October 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 11 October 2026. Earthquake of magnitude 7.7 in Panama. Markets: Bitcoin $82,984 · VIX 14.84 · CAC 40 7,803 · Brent $104.72 · S&P 500 7,812 · Hang Seng 24,211

The last thirty days

World

An earthquake of magnitude 7.7 strikes Panama, storm Isaias kills four in the United States and Ebola spreads to eastern DRC and Kenya.

Illustration : Panama — Colón City
Illustration : Panama — Colón CityBalou46 · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Earthquake of magnitude 7.7 in Panama

An earthquake of magnitude 7.7 triggered panic Friday in Panama's capital and caused the collapse of buildings and roads, mainly in the center of the country. More than a hundred aftershocks have been recorded since, prompting some residents to sleep outdoors.

Why it matters

The earthquake caused significant material damage and injuries. Fear of further tremors slows the return to normal.

02

Isaias kills four in the United States

Storm Isaias killed four people in the southern United States. Now a post-tropical cyclone, it is expected to move north then northeast during the weekend. More than 650,000 people are without electricity in Florida.

Why it matters

The death toll and power outages affect a very large number of residents in the southeastern part of the country.

United States2 sources
03

Ebola spreads to eastern DRC and Kenya

New cases of Ebola have been reported in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Kenya confirmed one imported case, which was fatal.

Why it matters

The crossing of a border shows the difficulty of containing the epidemic.

1 source
04

Category 4 hurricane near Mexico

Hurricane Simon reached category 4 off the Mexican coast. It was expected to approach the center-west coast of Mexico as a major hurricane during the night of October 10-11, with possible intensification before landfall.

Why it matters

A major hurricane threatens populations on the Mexican coast.

1 source
Mexico1 source
05

Drone strike in Sudan: 41 dead

A drone strike attributed to Sudanese paramilitaries killed 41 displaced persons near the Ethiopian border, according to a human rights organization. Eight children were reportedly among the victims.

Why it matters

The toll strikes civilians already displaced by war.

Sudan2 sources

In brief

  • RussiaThe WHO indicates that no cases of plague have been recorded following the death of a Russian laboratory employee, with no confirmed diagnosis or transmission observed.Al Jazeera ↗
  • MalawiIn Malawi, motorists queue for days due to a fuel shortage that is paralyzing daily life in Lilongwe.Al Jazeera ↗
  • NepalNepal is asking villagers to evacuate after flooding triggered by a landslide that swept away houses, suspension bridges and a hydroelectric project.The Straits Times ↗
  • MalaysiaThe government of Johor, Malaysia, has extended until October 16 the closure of schools due to worsening smoke haze.The Straits Times ↗
  • IndonesiaIndonesian authorities rescued 46 orangutans threatened by fires between August and October 9; eight were released into a protected forest.The Straits Times ↗

Geopolitics

Houthi attack on Riyadh airport kills 12, while Trump, after an agreement on Russian diesel, calls for a new president in Kyiv.

Illustration : Riyadh Province (Saudi Arabia)
Illustration : Riyadh Province (Saudi Arabia)European Space Agency · CC BY-SA 3.0 igo · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Attack on Riyadh airport: 12 dead

An attack attributed to Yemen's Houthis targeted Riyadh airport on Saturday: 12 dead and more than 300 wounded, according to Saudi authorities. It is the deadliest attack in the kingdom in more than ten years. Donald Trump deems it unacceptable and says he is evaluating American participation in Saudi strikes against the Houthis.

Why it matters

This deadly attack on the Saudi capital risks drawing the United States into a new escalation in Yemen.

02

Trump calls for a new president in Kyiv

After Volodymyr Zelensky's criticism of the US-Russian agreement on diesel, Donald Trump declared it is "time for Ukraine to have a new president". The United Kingdom assured Kyiv of its "total solidarity" and Ukraine's foreign minister recalled that this choice belongs to Ukrainians.

Why it matters

An American president calling for the replacement of an allied country's leader upsets relations between Washington, Kyiv and Europeans.

United States Ukraine4 sources
03

Russian strikes on Zaporizhzhia: at least 20 dead

Russian strikes killed at least 20 people on Saturday in Zaporizhzhia, including three children. Volodymyr Zelensky sees Russia's "thanks" after the American agreement on diesel.

Why it matters

The highly deadly attack comes the day after an agreement that Kyiv sees as favorable to financing the Russian war.

Ukraine4 sources
04

American agreement on Russian diesel

Donald Trump announced after an exchange with Vladimir Putin that Russia would immediately deliver diesel to the United States, with an agreement lifting sanctions on this product. Volodymyr Zelensky sees it as a decision that will help Moscow prolong the war.

Why it matters

This agreement eases pressure on Russia amid war and opens a crisis with Kyiv.

United States Russia3 sources
05

India: leaders of the 'cockroaches' freed

Indian courts ordered the release of leaders of the 'cockroaches' movement, arrested the day before a crackdown on a protest against the revision of electoral lists. Thousands of arrests took place on Saturday in Delhi and new calls to protest are multiplying.

Why it matters

The repression of a youth movement against the head of the electoral authority tests the power of Narendra Modi.

India4 sources
06

United States neutralizes cargo ship near Iran

American forces neutralized in the Gulf of Oman a cargo ship attempting to break the blockade of Iran, by striking its stern without injuring the crew, according to CENTCOM.

Why it matters

The operation shows that the blockade of Iran is enforced by force.

Iran2 sources
07

Return of anti-migrant violence in South Africa

New anti-migrant protests have resumed in South Africa. The government announced the withdrawal of a circular on asylum applications, but the announcement did not ease anger.

Why it matters

Tensions persist despite a government concession on asylum.

1 source
South Africa1 source

In brief

  • PalestineMahmoud Abbas postponed Palestinian legislative elections by one year.The Hindu ↗
  • New ZealandFormer New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern breaks her political silence to support Labour leader Chris Hipkins.The Straits Times ↗
  • United StatesThe US Department of Justice is investigating several television networks after the decision to limit coverage of the White House press pool.BBC World ↗
  • United States2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Navanethem Pillay deems American sanctions against the International Criminal Court "unacceptable".Le Monde ↗
  • TaiwanTaiwan's president says he is increasing defense spending to "deter war".The Hindu ↗
  • RussiaThe European Union is expected to propose stricter visa rules for Russians in January to limit hybrid attacks.Politico Europe ↗
  • JapanUnited StatesAn American marine is arrested for the alleged murder of a 39-year-old woman in Naha, on the island of Okinawa; Marco Rubio promises Washington's cooperation.The Straits Times ↗

Markets

Markets are calm in the last session, with indices up and Brent at 104.72 dollars, while French debt worries.

Illustration : France — Ghent
Illustration : France — GhentWikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

2027 Budget: turbulent start in the Assembly

Deputies on the finance committee rejected the tax portion of the budget bill after substantially revising it. This rejection suggests turbulent debates in session.

Why it matters

Budget adoption conditions France's response to debt concerns.

02

Lescure reassures the City on French debt

After strong tensions over French debt, Economy Minister Roland Lescure assured London financiers that the budget would be adopted.

Why it matters

Investor confidence determines France's financing costs.

1 source
France1 source
03

Developing countries face a triple shock

The UN development agency warns that the energy crisis, El Niño and borrowing costs pose a triple shock to developing countries. It calls for urgent action.

Why it matters

These crises could plunge tens, even hundreds of millions of people back into poverty.

1 source

In brief

Closing prices on 11 October 2026

Last close recorded for the briefing of 11 October 2026 (crypto: price at publication time, in US dollars). Information only, not financial advice. All markets and charts →

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 7,803.33 ↑ +0.95 %
DAX 25,087.27 ↑ +1.13 %
FTSE 100 10,552.05 ↑ +1.06 %
S&P 500 7,811.54 ↑ +0.59 %
Nasdaq 27,366.17 ↑ +0.64 %
Nikkei 225 69,030.92 ↓ -0.02 %
Hang Seng 24,211.35 ↑ +1.79 %
VIX 14.84 ↓ -3.70 %
Petrole Brent 104.72 ↑ +0.42 %
Gaz naturel 3.22 ↑ +1.64 %
Or 4,216.3 ↑ +1.43 %
EUR/USD 1.12 ↓ -0.06 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 82,984 USD ↑ +0.33 %
Ethereum 2,501.94 USD ↑ +0.33 %
BNB 746.87 USD ↓ -0.07 %
Solana 109.47 USD ↓ -0.24 %
XRP 1.39 USD ↓ -0.96 %

aucun seuil franchi, marchés crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 104.72 USD ↑ +0.42 %
Gaz naturel 3.22 USD ↑ +1.64 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 103% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Ormuz — traffic at 80% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Malacca — traffic at 106% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Suez — traffic at 110% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Panama — traffic at 95% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Bosphore — traffic at 59% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 107% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Douvres — traffic at 107% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Taïwan — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 4 October

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,416 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,010 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

53 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

qilin

Confipetrol

qilin claims to have compromised this organization.

panzer

Supreme Energy

panzer claims to have compromised this organization.

panzer

solutend

panzer claims to have compromised this organization.

shiba

maltest

shiba claims to have compromised this organization.

the gentlemen

BigID

the gentlemen claims to have compromised this organization.

the gentlemen

Confluent

the gentlemen claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Norfolk Island — traffic at 31% of normal levels
  • Iraq — traffic at 36% of normal levels
  • Haiti — traffic at 42% of normal levels
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