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Archives13 October 2026

Horizon — 13 October 2026

Tuesday 13 October 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 13 October 2026. Massive cyberattack against refrigerators in French supermarkets. Markets: Bitcoin $83,604 · VIX 15.21 · CAC 40 7,833 · Brent $105.46 · S&P 500 7,807 · Hang Seng 24,248

The last thirty days

World

A massive cyberattack paralyzes refrigerators in French supermarkets, while floods in Nepal and Iguazú, oil eruption in Niger and Pope's hospitalization mark the day.

Illustration : Paris (France)
Illustration : Paris (France)Yann Caradec from Paris, France · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Massive cyberattack against refrigerators in French supermarkets

During the night of October 11-12, a cyberattack targeted refrigeration equipment in hundreds of supermarkets in France. Temperatures in freezers and cold storage rooms were raised, causing fires and the destruction of thousands of tons of food, resulting in losses of millions of euros. The Paris prosecutor's office describes an attack "of major scale" affecting several major retailers.

Why it matters

This attack demonstrates the vulnerability of everyday connected objects and caused considerable food and material losses throughout the country.

02

Floods in Nepal: more than 100 foreign hikers stranded

Sudden floods in the Gorkha region of Nepal swept away houses, bridges and sections of the Manaslu hiking trail. More than 100 foreign hikers are stranded and a rescue operation is underway.

Why it matters

Nationals from several countries are affected and depend on rescue efforts, in a region frequented by walkers from around the world.

Nepal2 sources
03

Oil eruption in Niger: major environmental incident

In eastern Niger, an eruption of crude oil and gas, which began on September 25, is projecting large quantities of hydrocarbons more than ten meters high. Authorities describe the incident as exceptionally serious from an environmental standpoint.

Why it matters

Pollution is causing lasting damage to the local environment and the causes of the incident remain to be established.

1 source
Niger1 source
04

Pope Leo XIV hospitalized, his audiences cancelled

Pope Leo XIV is hospitalized Tuesday in Rome and his audiences are cancelled until October 20. He is to undergo surgery to remove a nodule from his lung, detected at an early stage.

Why it matters

The Pope is scheduled to travel from November 6-17 to Uruguay, Argentina and Peru; no details have been given on any possible change to this schedule.

Italy2 sources
05

Floods: Iguazú Falls closed to the public

Iguazú National Park in Argentina closed access to the falls' walkways Monday due to an exceptional rise in the river, whose flow exceeds 12,000 cubic meters per second. Authorities announce an increase in flows on the Paraná and Uruguay rivers.

Why it matters

The flood, linked to El Niño according to the Argentine press, threatens regions along the Paraná and Uruguay rivers.

Argentina2 sources
06

Fires ravage Brazilian Amazon

The Brazilian government attributes the wave of fires in Amazonas State to deliberate human action, with 540 new fire sites recorded in 48 hours.

Why it matters

These sites represent more than half of those detected throughout the entire month, and weigh on one of the planet's main forests.

1 source
Brazil1 source
07

Houthis against Riyadh: escalation continues

Yemen's Houthis targeted Riyadh with a missile for the third consecutive day, targeting the international airport. An attack on airports killed 13 people according to the BBC, and Saudi Arabia suspended flights to Riyadh.

Why it matters

The attack strikes Saudi Arabia's capital and its civil airport, and the Houthis threaten retaliation if the United States intervenes.

Saudi Arabia Yemen4 sources

In brief

  • PakistanA passenger train derailed in Pakistan, killing five people and injuring around thirty, according to police.The Hindu ↗
  • NigeriaArmed men killed 24 people in attacks on communities in Nigeria, according to The Hindu.The Hindu ↗
  • IsraelA high school student was killed by unexploded ordnance during a school outing near Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel.Le Monde ↗
  • MexicoHurricanes Simon and storm Rachel strike Mexico's Pacific coast and kill two people.Al Jazeera ↗
  • MoroccoMorocco is preparing for a UN Security Council vote on October 31 on the mission in Western Sahara.Courrier international ↗
  • SudanFamine threatens Sudan, where conflict and drought linked to El Niño affect approximately half the country, according to an observatory.Al Jazeera ↗

Geopolitics

The Trump-Putin agreement on Russian diesel fuel provokes fierce controversy in Washington and weakens Ukraine, while Kabila's alliance with M23 and strikes against Riyadh worsen several crises.

Illustration : Washington (United States)
Illustration : Washington (United States)Ron Clausen · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Trump-Putin agreement on Russian diesel fuel: uproar in Washington

Following an exchange with Vladimir Putin on October 9, Donald Trump lifted for six months part of American sanctions targeting Russian diesel fuel, in order to import it. Seven senators on the Foreign Affairs Committee, including four Republicans, are asking him to cancel this decision which they deem illegal. The project is sparking fury among many elected officials in Washington.

Why it matters

The agreement effectively circumvents Western sanctions against Moscow, worries Kyiv and exposes a growing gap between Washington and Europeans.

02

Kabila takes the lead of a movement allied with M23

Former Congolese president Joseph Kabila, sentenced to death in absentia for treason in 2025, took the lead Monday of the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation, a politico-military movement including AFC/M23 rebels. He was designated in Goma.

Why it matters

This alliance unites a former head of state and an armed rebellion against president Félix Tshisekedi, whom the opposition accuses of wanting to modify the Constitution.

Democratic Republic of the Congo2 sources
03

Europeans harden their tone against Moscow

EU leaders are calling for new measures against Russia as Washington eases its pressure, and an increasing number of member states, including France, are discussing restricting entry for Russian nationals. General Alexus Grynkewich, commander of NATO allied forces, stated in Warsaw that it is impossible for the Alliance to be attacked by surprise.

Why it matters

The gap is widening between Europeans and Americans on how to end the war in Ukraine.

4 sources
04

New crackdowns in Pakistan against Imran Khan's party

The Pakistani government has declared a state of emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, suspended the local government and carried out hundreds of arrests. Authorities cite an increase in terrorist attacks.

Why it matters

The measure targets the province led by the party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, in a prolonged power struggle with the government backed by the military.

Pakistan2 sources
05

Germany: Labor Minister resigns, coalition weakened

Social Democrat Bärbel Bas left the government and the SPD presidency, citing bereavement and public attacks from her conservative partners. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, already severely weakened, sees his coalition shaken.

Why it matters

This departure creates a new conflict between the Union and the SPD within the coalition of Europe's leading economy.

Germany2 sources
06

United Kingdom: Prime Minister accuses Iran and Russia

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham pointed Monday to Iran's responsibility in an incident that occurred in late September near a military base. He also suggested in a podcast that the Kremlin had influenced the Brexit campaign.

Why it matters

These direct accusations from a head of government against Tehran and Moscow are unprecedented on the second point.

United Kingdom2 sources
07

Ceuta: Spain's King visits amid tension

King Felipe VI travels Tuesday to Ceuta, three months after the arrival of more than 72,000 migrants from Morocco. Thousands of them still sleep in the city. A poll shows that three out of four Spaniards view Morocco as threatening to territorial integrity.

Why it matters

The migration crisis weighs on Spanish-Moroccan relations and on Spain's political climate.

Spain Morocco3 sources

In brief

  • UkraineA Russian drone struck a 25-story residential building in Kyiv, killing two people.Le Monde ↗
  • EthiopiaEthiopian government forces entered a key town in Tigray near the Eritrean border.The Hindu ↗
  • RéunionThe French Navy seized the tanker "DF Peak" south of Réunion, suspected of belonging to the Russian shadow fleet.Le Monde ↗
  • IraqTurkeyKurdish PKK activists withdrew from four camps in northern Iraq as part of the peace process with Turkey.The Hindu ↗
  • LibyaSaddam Haftar, son of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, took control of the Parliament of Benghazi in eastern Libya.Le Monde ↗
  • PolandGermanyPoland announces the arrest in Germany of two Turks suspected of sabotage linked to Russia against a Starlink station.Al Jazeera ↗

Markets

The Nikkei falls 1.85% while European stock markets advance and Brent remains high at 105.46 dollars; the IMF raises its global growth forecast but highlights a sharp decline for France.

Top story
01

IMF raises its global growth forecast for 2026

The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It raises its forecast for the eurozone, but France's would not exceed 0.4% in 2026, compared to 0.9% in 2025.

Why it matters

The IMF describes a two-speed global economy, supported by investment in AI but threatened by war and debt.

02

Developing countries: IMF demands cuts or restructuring

The IMF states that heavily indebted developing countries have no choice but to reduce spending or restructure their debt. Heavily indebted oil importers bear the brunt of the energy shock.

Why it matters

Soaring debt and the return of inflation leave little room for these countries to face successive shocks.

2 sources
03

2027 Budget: government faces Assembly without allies

Examination of the 2027 budget bill begins Tuesday in the National Assembly. Deputies on the Finance Committee rejected the tax portion after substantially revising it. The government hopes for adoption before December 31.

Why it matters

The debate opens in a context of strong tension on debt markets, with a surge in interest rates.

France4 sources
04

The State becomes the leading shareholder of mining group Eramet

The Élysée announced Monday that the French State would increase its stake in Eramet, in financial difficulty, and become its leading shareholder, ahead of the Duval group.

Why it matters

The State is intervening to support a mining player deemed strategic.

France2 sources
05

Diesel: expected drop at the pump thanks to destocking

Strategic diesel stocks will be released, with a drop at the pump expected from November 1. TotalEnergies commits to a drop of around ten cents, less than the 12 to 18 cents range put forward by Matignon, and 20 cents for non-road diesel.

Why it matters

The measure aims to relieve motorists, farmers and construction companies facing expensive fuel.

France2 sources
06

Luxury slows: LVMH falls 5% in third quarter

Fashion and leather goods brands of the LVMH group see their sales fall 5% in the third quarter, due to slowing consumption in China. The slowdown also affects the United States.

Why it matters

The luxury sector is a barometer of high-end global consumption.

China1 source
07

Chinese brands invade the Paris Motor Show

More than a third of manufacturers present at the Paris Motor Show are Chinese. These brands represent 10% of sales in the European Union, while car sales are declining in China.

Why it matters

Chinese manufacturers are seeking outlets in Europe, whose manufacturers are themselves turning to China.

France China4 sources

In brief

Closing prices on 13 October 2026

Last close recorded for the briefing of 13 October 2026 (crypto: price at publication time, in US dollars). Information only, not financial advice. All markets and charts →

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 7,832.88 ↑ +0.38 %
DAX 25,277.68 ↑ +0.76 %
FTSE 100 10,656.28 ↑ +0.99 %
S&P 500 7,807.24 ↓ -0.06 %
Nasdaq 27,245.9 ↓ -0.44 %
Nikkei 225 67,754.02 ↓ -1.85 %
Hang Seng 24,248.07 ↓ -0.10 %
VIX 15.21 ↑ +2.49 %
Petrole Brent 105.46 ↓ -1.12 %
Gaz naturel 3.17 ↑ +0.22 %
Or 4,212.3 ↑ +0.52 %
EUR/USD 1.12 ↓ -0.31 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 83,604 USD ↓ -0.30 %
Ethereum 2,530.81 USD ↓ -1.20 %
BNB 744.79 USD ↓ -1.15 %
Solana 108.5 USD ↓ -3.44 %
XRP 1.38 USD ↓ -2.47 %

aucun seuil franchi, marchés crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 105.46 USD ↓ -1.12 %
Gaz naturel 3.17 USD ↑ +0.22 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 103% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Ormuz — traffic at 80% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Malacca — traffic at 106% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Suez — traffic at 110% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Panama — traffic at 95% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Bosphore — traffic at 59% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 107% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Douvres — traffic at 107% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Taïwan — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 4 October
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 4 October

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,416 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,010 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

104 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

safepay

hiqbio.com

safepay claims to have compromised this organization.

brain cipher

Trailerbridge.com

brain cipher claims to have compromised this organization.

orova

The Park Lane Hong Kong

orova claims to have compromised this organization.

orova

Libre Wireless Technologies

orova claims to have compromised this organization.

orova

Amantya Technologies

orova claims to have compromised this organization.

orova

Gatetech Technology

orova claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Norfolk Island — traffic at 26% of normal levels
  • Iraq — traffic at 36% of normal levels
  • Sao Tome And Principe — traffic at 41% of normal levels

The world in figures

The background to that day's news: public data (conflicts, earthquakes, commodities, agenda). They are not part of the colours or the risk index.

Coming up

as of 13 October 2026

Major central bank decisions and national elections in the following weeks, as known that day.

  • 16 OctoberD+3 Czechia · Senate (2nd round)
  • 25 OctoberD+12 Bulgaria · President
  • 25 OctoberD+12 Serbia · Parliament
  • 25 OctoberD+12 Brazil · President (2nd round)
  • 27 OctoberD+14 Israel · Knesset
  • 28 OctoberD+15 Fed: interest rate decision
  • 29 OctoberD+16 ECB: interest rate decision
  • 3 NovemberD+21 United States · House of Representatives and Senate
  • 5 NovemberD+23 Grenada · Parliament

Source : Fed, ECB, Wikipedia (electoral calendar)

Armed conflict

August 2026

11,118 estimated deaths +18.4 % · 49 countries

  • Ukraine 5,648
  • Yemen 1,380
  • Nigeria 1,015
  • Pakistan 551
  • Ethiopia 311
  • Sudan 272
  • Colombia 259

Central estimate, provisional monthly data; change versus the previous month.

Source : UCDP, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0) ↗

Earthquakes

previous 7 days

177 of magnitude 4.5+ · 7 of 6+

  • 7.7 Panama 9 October · orange alert
  • 6.7 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge 13 October
  • 6.6 Panama 9 October · yellow alert
  • 6.3 Vanuatu 8 October
  • 6.2 Papua New Guinea 11 October

Source : USGS (public domain) ↗

Commodities

September 2026

Monthly average world prices in US dollars; indices 2010 = 100.

Level1 month1 year
Energy149+25.7 %+70.0 %
Food124+3.8 %+15.8 %
Fertilizers147+0.4 %−1.7 %
Base metals166+0.8 %+35.1 %
Precious metals339−1.9 %+22.6 %
Detailed prices
Level1 month1 year
Brent crude117 $/bbl+28.5 %+71.8 %
Natural gas (Europe)25.42 $/MMBtu+20.4 %+128.6 %
Wheat347 $/t+5.2 %+48.4 %
Maize240 $/t+7.0 %+21.4 %
Rice482 $/t+2.3 %+28.9 %
Cocoa5.92 $/kg−0.5 %−15.8 %
Arabica coffee7.26 $/kg−8.9 %−17.8 %
Copper14,474 $/t+1.0 %+45.0 %
Gold4,319 $/oz−2.1 %+17.7 %

Source : World Bank, Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0) ↗

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