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Horizon

Horizon — 30 September 2026

30 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 30 September 2026. Floods in Nepal: a municipal building collapses · End of anti-IS coalition withdrawal from Iraq · Gold reaches a new high level

The last thirty days

World

A deadly flood in Nepal and a deadly airstrike in Myanmar mark an otherwise ordinary week.

Illustration : Nepal
Illustration : NepalJacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Floods in Nepal: a municipal building collapses

In Baglung, Nepal, the municipality building collapsed into a river after being weakened by floods. Images show the moment of collapse.

Why it matters

This episode illustrates the scale of flooding affecting the Himalayan region this season.

02

Deadly airstrike in Myanmar

The UN said it was alarmed by reports that an airstrike in Myanmar killed 50 people, a toll that is expected to rise further according to the United Nations.

Why it matters

Such a heavy toll in an internal Myanmar conflict draws the attention of international organizations to the country's humanitarian situation.

Myanmar1 source
03

One in eight cancers caused by infection

According to a UN agency, approximately 12% of cancers worldwide are caused by an infectious agent. Screening and treatment of these infections would help reduce the number of cases.

Why it matters

This global health data opens avenues for prevention on an international scale.

1 source
04

Malaysia: over 1,400 Burmese migrants returned

Malaysia returned over 1,400 Burmese nationals to their country in an operation deemed opaque by observers and which would violate the international principle of non-refoulement.

Why it matters

The operation raises questions about respect for international refugee law in the context of conflict in Myanmar.

Malaysia Myanmar1 source

Geopolitics

The complete withdrawal of the anti-jihadist coalition from Iraq and a diplomatic incident between Ukraine and South Korea mark a dense geopolitical news cycle, against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Illustration : Iraq
Illustration : IraqDiyar Muhammed · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

End of anti-IS coalition withdrawal from Iraq

The US-led anti-jihadist coalition completed its full withdrawal from Iraq on Wednesday, ending a military presence that began in 2014. The country must now manage internal tensions on its own, particularly those linked to groups supported by Iran.

Why it matters

This departure revives the question of regional security and Iranian influence in Iraq after twelve years of Western presence.

02

Deadly Russian strikes on Kyiv

Russian strikes killed several people, including a child, and wounded others in Kyiv and its surroundings during the night of Tuesday to Wednesday. Flights were briefly suspended in neighbouring Poland.

Why it matters

These strikes are part of Russia's campaign targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and have repercussions on the airspace of a NATO member country.

Ukraine Poland2 sources
03

Ukraine-South Korea diplomatic incident

Statements by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the transfer to South Korea of two North Korean soldiers captured in Russia provoked a diplomatic incident with Seoul, which denies any commitment of military aid in exchange.

Why it matters

This rift reveals divergent strategic priorities between two Western partners in the face of North Korea and Russia.

Ukraine South Korea4 sources
04

South Korea demands apology after explosions in DMZ

Mine explosions in the demilitarized zone wounded three South Korean soldiers last week. Seoul demands an apology from Pyongyang, which calls the incident a hoax and threatens to retaliate.

Why it matters

This incident revives tensions along one of the world's most militarized borders.

South Korea North Korea3 sources
05

Putin intensifies war effort after elections

After legislative elections in Russia, Vladimir Putin again increased his army's personnel, for the fourth time this year, and Moscow plans to increase its military spending by more than a quarter for 2027.

Why it matters

This military buildup confirms that the war in Ukraine is set to continue for the long term on the Russian side.

Russia1 source
06

First female head of government in Morocco

King Mohammed VI appointed Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri, mayor of Marrakech, as head of the Moroccan government following her party's victory in legislative elections. She is the first woman to hold this position in Morocco, and the second in the Arab world.

Why it matters

This appointment marks a political first in the kingdom and in the Arab region.

Morocco3 sources

Markets

Markets remain calm, with a sharp drop in oil prices and a rise in the Nikkei, without crossing critical thresholds.

Top story
01

Gold reaches a new high level

The price of gold rose 0.78% to reach $4,212.2 per ounce, continuing its recent upward trend.

Why it matters

Gold's rise often reflects investors' search for safe-haven assets.

02

Europe prepares for a difficult energy winter

Meeting in Dublin, EU energy ministers note that gas reserves are limited and prices high, with imports costing the Union more than 100 billion euros.

Why it matters

Europe's energy situation could weigh on growth and household purchasing power this winter.

1 source
03

French public debt reaches 119% of GDP

According to INSEE, France's debt reached 3,595.5 billion euros in the second quarter of 2026, or 119% of GDP, a level not seen since 1946. The government is presenting its 2027 budget proposal in this tense context.

Why it matters

Such a debt level for a major European state concerns markets and France's European partners.

France3 sources
04

Moody's maintains Italy's rating at Baa2

Moody's maintained Italy's rating at Baa2, a decision deemed by an economist as confirming a budgetary trajectory without real economic policy from the Meloni government.

Why it matters

The rating of major eurozone states directly influences financing conditions on European markets.

1 source
Italy1 source
05

Pentagon: Boeing chosen for future naval fighter aircraft

Boeing won a contract valued at 20 billion dollars to develop the future carrier-based fighter aircraft for the US Navy, after already being selected for the next-generation aircraft for the air force.

Why it matters

This contract strengthens Boeing's position on the global military aviation market against its competitors.

United States3 sources

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,035.87 ↓ -0.53 %
DAX 25,399.21 ↑ +0.10 %
FTSE 100 10,636.71 ↓ -0.45 %
S&P 500 7,670.84 ↓ -0.17 %
Nasdaq 26,797.54 ↓ -0.09 %
Nikkei 225 66,859.94 ↑ +2.11 %
Hang Seng 24,570.05 ↑ +0.19 %
VIX 16.04 ↓ -0.19 %
Petrole Brent 95.85 ↓ -6.57 %
Gaz naturel 3.03 ↑ +0.56 %
Or 4,212.2 ↑ +0.78 %
EUR/USD 1.14 ↓ -0.13 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 83,109 USD ↓ -0.94 %
Ethereum 2,664.31 USD ↓ -1.14 %
BNB 759.56 USD ↓ -0.45 %
Solana 118.5 USD ↓ -0.45 %
XRP 1.5 USD ↓ -0.28 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 95.85 USD ↓ -6.57 %
Gaz naturel 3.03 USD ↑ +0.56 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 90% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 50% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Suez — traffic at 93% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Panama — traffic at 87% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 77% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 110% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 94% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 27 September

Ormuz — trafic a 50% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-27)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

  • KAVOSHCOM ASIA R AND D GROUP — NPWMD, IFSR
  • EC MOJO TECHNOLOGY CO LIMITED — NPWMD, IFSR
  • LALI, Parisa — NPWMD, IFSR
  • LI, Fen — NPWMD, IFSR
  • AHMADY, Ali Fotowat — NPWMD, IFSR
  • ZAMBADA SICAIROS, Ismael — SDGT, ILLICIT-DRUGS-EO14059
  • GASTELUM GARCIA, Hildegardo — SDGT, ILLICIT-DRUGS-EO14059
  • TAJAMMAL, Waseem Pasha — NPWMD, IFSR
  • CAVALIER DYNAMICS PRIVATE LIMITED — NPWMD, IFSR
  • CAVALIER DYNAMICS FOR TECHNOLOGIES COMPANY — NPWMD, IFSR
  • CAVALIER DYNAMICS TEKNOLOJI TICARET ANONIM SIRKETI — NPWMD, IFSR
  • MIA CENTRO CAMBIARIO, S.A. DE C.V. — SDGT, ILLICIT-DRUGS-EO14059
  • TABATABAI, Seyyed Asghar Alizadeh — NPWMD, IFSR
  • CHAPOTIN VILLALBA, Diosvany Samuel — SDGT, ILLICIT-DRUGS-EO14059
  • MARTINEZ RODRIGUEZ, Pedro Humberto — SDGT, ILLICIT-DRUGS-EO14059

19,444 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

123 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

storm

West County Health Centers

storm claims to have compromised this organization.

storm

Gardeners' Guild

storm claims to have compromised this organization.

storm

North Hills Facility Services

storm claims to have compromised this organization.

storm

Olnick Rentals

storm claims to have compromised this organization.

storm

Century Management Services

storm claims to have compromised this organization.

storm

Silvercup Studios

storm claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 5% of normal levels
  • Swaziland — traffic at 47% of normal levels