Horizon

Horizon — 26 September 2026

26 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 26 September 2026. Record flooding in Bangkok, disaster status declared · New Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia · Stock markets slightly higher after Trump-Xi summit

The last thirty days

World

Major flooding strikes Bangkok as health and environmental crises affect several Asian regions.

Top story
01

Record flooding in Bangkok, disaster status declared

The city of Bangkok declared disaster status following torrential rains that dumped nearly 300 mm of water in 48 hours. Eastern Bangkok is on alert, with canals reaching critical levels.

Why it matters

A capital of several million inhabitants is in crisis, with major health and economic risks for the entire region.

02

Pope Leo XIV's visit to France

Pope Leo XIV began a four-day visit to France, welcomed by nearly 300,000 people in Paris. He warned against the risk of "losing our humanity" in the face of artificial intelligence and discussed peace and end-of-life issues in his initial exchanges.

Why it matters

The first papal visit to France in nearly twenty years, it carries religious and political significance extending beyond French borders.

France4 sources
03

Fires in Borneo threatening orangutans

Fires are currently spreading through habitats home to 52% of Borneo's orangutan population, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

Why it matters

The event threatens a critically endangered species and illustrates the regional impact of Indonesian fires beyond national borders.

Indonesia1 source
04

Announced disappearance of eternal snows in Papua

The tropical snows of Papua's peaks, which hold scientific and spiritual value, are disappearing due to climate change.

Why it matters

This phenomenon concretely illustrates the acceleration of global warming in a rare tropical region bearing permanent snow.

1 source
Indonesia1 source
05

Massive mortality of whale calves in Patagonia

Hundreds of southern right whale calves have died this season in Patagonia, prompting scientists to investigate a possible bacterial epidemic.

Why it matters

A mass mortality phenomenon in a protected species may signal a broader ecological imbalance in the Southern Ocean.

Argentina1 source
06

Typhoon Dujuan cuts power to eastern Japan

More than 10,000 households remain without power in eastern Japan following Typhoon Dujuan's passage, with operator TEPCO citing outages that could extend further.

Why it matters

Typhoons affecting Japan have economic and logistical repercussions that sometimes extend beyond the Pacific region's borders.

Japan1 source

Geopolitics

Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia intensify as Iran and the United States clash over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Top story
01

New Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia

Houthi drones and ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh and a city hosting an air base were intercepted on Saturday. The UN Security Council condemned these attacks, and France announced the deployment of military means (soldiers, radars, defense systems) to protect Saudi energy infrastructure.

Why it matters

An escalation of attacks against a major oil-exporting country now directly involves outside powers such as France.

02

Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz, Trump refuses

Iran submitted to the United States a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, under conditions. Donald Trump rejected this offer according to the Wall Street Journal, while Iran's foreign minister claims to be awaiting an American response.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic passage point for global oil; its prolonged blockade weighs on the international economy.

4 sources
03

Trump-Xi summit in Washington without major agreement

Chinese President Xi Jinping completed a three-day state visit to Washington, marked by symbolic gestures but without substantive agreement. The two countries did, however, agree on a communication channel regarding artificial intelligence-related incidents and a two-month extension of the trade truce.

Why it matters

The relationship between the world's two largest economic powers conditions trade, technology, and global geopolitical stability.

4 sources
04

Resumption of armed tensions in Tigray, Ethiopia

Fighting has resumed in Ethiopia's Tigray region, leading to internet access restrictions. Tensions are rising between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the national army, two years after the end of the civil war.

Why it matters

A return to civil war in this region would have major humanitarian consequences for the Horn of Africa.

2 sources
05

Legislative elections in Morocco: coalition in negotiation

Following Morocco's legislative elections, the Authenticity and Modernity party (PAM) came first without an absolute majority and must now negotiate a coalition, a decision that will partly depend on the royal choice.

Why it matters

The formation of the next Moroccan government will influence preparations for the 2030 World Cup, co-hosted by the country.

2 sources
06

Military aircraft crash in Democratic Republic of Congo

A military aircraft crashed on a residential neighborhood in the Democratic Republic of Congo, killing fourteen people, including civilians and senior military officials, during a return flight to Kinshasa.

Why it matters

The involvement of high-ranking military officials in this accident directly affects the capabilities of Congolese armed forces.

2 sources

Markets

Global markets remain calm, buoyed by slight optimism following the Trump-Xi summit, while oil retreats sharply.

Top story
01

Stock markets slightly higher after Trump-Xi summit

Global stock indices progressed moderately in the last session: the S&P 500 (+0.51%), the Nasdaq (+0.48%), the DAX (+0.56%) and the Nikkei (+1.3%) all closed higher, while the VIX fell 5.11%, a sign of easing market tensions.

Why it matters

This stability indicates that investors view the outcome of the Washington-Beijing summit positively, despite the absence of a major agreement.

02

Sharp fall in Brent oil price

The Brent barrel fell 8.59% to settle at $97.44 in the last session, a notable decline after several weeks of tensions linked to the Strait of Hormuz conflict.

Why it matters

Such a sharp fall in oil prices directly affects energy costs and inflation on a global scale.

3 sources
03

Surge in diesel prices in Europe

Diesel prices reached record levels in the United Kingdom (198.32 pence per liter) and in France, where they exceed the European average, amid threats of an American embargo on diesel exports mentioned by Donald Trump.

Why it matters

This surge directly affects household purchasing power and transport costs across several European countries.

4 sources
04

Partial trade agreement between China and United States

The United States and China agreed on a tariff reduction covering 30 billion dollars of non-sensitive goods each, following the Trump-Xi summit, without resolving underlying structural differences.

Why it matters

This limited but concrete gesture could ease certain trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

2 sources
05

SoftBank record borrowing to finance AI

Japanese conglomerate SoftBank, the main financier of OpenAI, issued a bond loan of 11 billion dollars, the highest ever issued by a financially poorly-rated issuer.

Why it matters

This level of debt illustrates the financial risks taken to support the global race for artificial intelligence investments.

1 source
1 source
06

Global fuel aid to limit price surge

94 governments worldwide have implemented aid to protect businesses and households against rising oil prices, as the Iran-related conflict continues to weigh on prices.

Why it matters

This coordinated response on a global scale demonstrates the extent of the economic impact of the energy conflict.

1 source

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,077.8 ↓ -0.04 %
DAX 25,408.64 ↑ +0.56 %
FTSE 100 10,695.25 ↑ +0.14 %
S&P 500 7,743.41 ↑ +0.51 %
Nasdaq 27,068.72 ↑ +0.48 %
Nikkei 225 66,364.2 ↑ +1.30 %
Hang Seng 24,510.09 ↓ -1.01 %
VIX 14.87 ↓ -5.11 %
Petrole Brent 97.44 ↓ -8.59 %
Gaz naturel 3.23 ↓ -2.18 %
Or 4,321.2 ↑ +0.54 %
EUR/USD 1.14 ↑ +0.15 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 83,916 USD ↓ -0.22 %
Ethereum 2,684.07 USD ↑ +0.27 %
BNB 772.03 USD ↓ -0.30 %
Solana 120.28 USD ↑ +3.32 %
XRP 1.55 USD ↑ +1.10 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 97.44 USD ↓ -8.59 %
Gaz naturel 3.23 USD ↓ -2.18 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 81% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 33% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 105% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Suez — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Panama — traffic at 90% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 88% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 103% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 91% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 96% of normal levels data from 20 September

Ormuz — trafic a 33% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-20)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,391 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

54 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

termite

https://www.crossettinc.com/

termite claims to have compromised this organization.

wallstreet

Tobin & Company

wallstreet claims to have compromised this organization.

wallstreet

Ar Valve Resources

wallstreet claims to have compromised this organization.

wallstreet

GTFM

wallstreet claims to have compromised this organization.

wallstreet

Beatus Cartons

wallstreet claims to have compromised this organization.

everest

Morula IVF

everest claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 10% of normal levels
  • Iraq — traffic at 12% of normal levels
  • Lao Peoples Democratic Republic — traffic at 41% of normal levels
  • Malaysia — traffic at 44% of normal levels