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Horizon

Horizon — 3 October 2026

3 October 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 3 October 2026. Ebola in DRC: over 4,000 deaths · Kyiv: a second major bridge hit · G7 releases 100 million barrels of oil

The last thirty days

World

The Ebola epidemic in DRC crosses 4,000 deaths, while California prepares for a temporary rise in sea level and Nepal plans to drain four glacial lakes after deadly floods.

Illustration : Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Illustration : Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo)Garcia-Pavilion · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Ebola in DRC: over 4,000 deaths

The Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has crossed the 4,000 death mark, making it the worst in the country's history. The presence of armed groups and distrust among parts of the population are hampering the response. A treatment centre was set on fire.

Why it matters

The health response is hindered by insecurity and lack of resources: the UN coordinator speaks of difficulties in creating transit and treatment centres due to lack of money and personnel.

02

California: a giant wave will raise the sea

A giant ocean wave, boosted by El Niño, is set to temporarily raise sea levels by around thirty centimetres in California. It is expected to reach San Diego the week of October 5, then progress slowly towards Alaska. It is neither surfable nor visible to the naked eye.

Why it matters

This temporary rise in ocean level has prompted California authorities to prepare for an announced imminent increase.

United States2 sources
03

Nepal: four glacial lakes to be drained

After deadly floods, Nepal plans to drain four glacial lakes. Channels will evacuate water to neighbouring rivers in a regulated manner. Work will begin after a detailed study and could last up to six years.

Why it matters

The project aims to reduce the risk of new floods caused by these mountain lakes.

Nepal2 sources
04

No Atlantic hurricane in September

For the first time in three decades, no hurricane was recorded in the Atlantic in September, usually the most active month. The BBC wonders whether El Niño could result in a season without a hurricane.

Why it matters

The El Niño phenomenon is mentioned as a possible factor in this unusual absence.

1 source
1 source

In brief

  • ThailandThailand is trying to clear the backlog of luggage at Bangkok airport after severe flooding: around 10,000 suitcases had accumulated there.The Straits Times ↗
  • United StatesThe Hōlei volcanic arch, 550 years old, collapsed in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park.BBC World ↗
  • AustraliaA magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck the state of Victoria in Australia, with an epicentre at Leongatha; tremors were felt in Melbourne.The Guardian (Australie) ↗
  • According to a study, Antarctic sea ice reached its third lowest winter maximum this year since satellite records began in 1979.MercoPress ↗
  • AustraliaBogong moths, whose great migration collapsed in 2017, are beginning to swarm the Australian sky again.The Straits Times ↗

Geopolitics

Russia strikes a second major bridge in Kyiv, North Korea fires a ballistic missile, Ethiopia and Eritrea break relations, and fighting intensifies in Yemen.

Illustration : Ukraine
Illustration : UkraineJuan Antonio Segal · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Kyiv: a second major bridge hit

After the South Bridge, targeted Thursday and Friday, the North Bridge in Kyiv was damaged Saturday by Russian strikes, notably on the roadway. Three of the six road bridges in the capital were closed in whole or in part, causing traffic jams.

Why it matters

These strikes appear to be part of a new tactic aimed at disrupting the daily life of residents of the Ukrainian capital.

02

Ethiopia and Eritrea break relations

Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties as the conflict intensifies in northern Ethiopia. Ethiopian forces are facing rebel fighters in the region.

Why it matters

The diplomatic break worsens tensions around an already ongoing conflict in the Horn of Africa.

1 source
Ethiopia Eritrea1 source
03

North Korea fires a ballistic missile

North Korea fired a ballistic missile Saturday morning from the Wonsan region on its east coast. According to Seoul and Tokyo, the projectile fell into the sea approximately 700 km from its point of departure.

Why it matters

This firing comes as Seoul sought to restart dialogue with Pyongyang, following the explosion of mines in the demilitarized zone that wounded three South Korean soldiers.

North Korea South Korea4 sources
04

Yemen: fighting intensifies

Fighting intensifies in Yemen: the army claims that 474 attacks in 24 hours killed or wounded 1,540 Houthi fighters. The Houthis now control the Bab Al-Mandab strait, one of the world's most strategic maritime passages.

Why it matters

Control of this strait gives the Houthi movement influence over a major maritime route.

Yemen2 sources
05

Israel: two Arab lists authorised to run

Israel's Supreme Court authorised the United Arab List and the Unified List to run in the legislative elections of October 27. The electoral commission, approached by members of Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, had excluded them a month before the vote.

Why it matters

The Court's decision overturns the exclusion of two Arab parties from the election.

1 source
Israel1 source
06

Brazil: presidential election this Sunday

Brazil votes Sunday for the first round of the presidential election, with two favourites: President Lula and right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. No debate opposed the two men before the vote. The United States and Australia have suspended their diplomatic operations in the country due to security threats.

Why it matters

The election pits two figures competing for the presidency of a major Latin American country.

Brazil3 sources
07

United Kingdom: two Iranians charged over attack plot

Two Iranians are charged in the United Kingdom with preparing a terrorist act against the Jewish community in Manchester, on the eve or day of Yom Kippur. British police suspect them of communicating via encrypted applications.

Why it matters

This is a plot for an attack targeting a religious community in the United Kingdom.

United Kingdom2 sources
08

Spain: Sánchez loses vote on housing

Spanish deputies rejected the two government decrees on the housing crisis, a political setback for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Hundreds of protesters were outside Parliament. This defeat increases pressure for early elections.

Why it matters

This setback weakens the Spanish government amid rents that have nearly doubled in ten years.

Spain4 sources

In brief

  • GuineaGuinea has pardoned opposition figure Aliou Bah, held since December 2024 for 'insult and defamation', as well as 216 other detainees.Le Monde ↗
  • TunisiaTunisia has eased its decree-law 54: the prison sentence for a first offence is eliminated.France 24 ↗
  • United KingdomFranceThe 'One in, one out' migration agreement between London and Paris, launched in August 2025, has expired.Courrier international ↗
  • ItalyRomania17 countries unite to oppose cuts to the EU budget, under the impetus of Italy and Romania.Politico Europe ↗
  • JapanRussiaJapan has taken its first sanctions targeting the Russian 'ghost fleet' since Vladimir Putin's trip to the disputed island.Nikkei Asia ↗
  • TaiwanTaiwan received two American F-16V fighter jets, delivered late.The Hindu ↗
  • PakistanThe Pakistani government is negotiating with Imran Khan's party to ease tensions before a march to Islamabad.The Hindu ↗
  • United StatesAn employee of the US Department of Energy was arrested by the FBI, accused of wanting to support Houthi fighters in Yemen.The Hindu ↗

Markets

Western stock markets ended higher Friday, driven by disappointing American employment, while the Hang Seng fell 2.6% and Brent remained at $102.25.

Top story
01

G7 releases 100 million barrels of oil

G7 countries decided Friday to release 100 million barrels from their strategic reserves, including oil and diesel, over four months. The agreement came under pressure from Donald Trump, who threatened to ban American diesel exports. The American diesel gallon was worth $6.37 Friday, after a record of $6.52 on September 22.

Why it matters

The release of reserves aims to curb soaring fuel prices and avoid an American embargo on diesel.

02

American employment: 29,000 jobs created in September

The United States created only 29,000 jobs in September, far from the 80,000 expected by analysts. The care sector accounted for most of the job creation. The disappointing statistic pushed stock markets up, as investors reduced their expectations for Fed rate increases.

Why it matters

It shows still vigorous growth but less job-creating, with a direct effect on rate expectations.

United States3 sources
03

2027 Budget: France under financial scrutiny

The government presented its 2027 budget proposal: it notably provides for 5.5 billion euros in savings on pensions. Moody's judges its adoption 'highly uncertain' and maintains a negative outlook on France's rating, ahead of its decision on October 23. In Berlin and Brussels, the situation of French debt is a concern.

Why it matters

France's rating is at stake on October 23, as the budget vote remains uncertain in the face of opposition evoking censure.

France4 sources
04

British diesel exceeds 2 pounds per litre

The average price of diesel in the United Kingdom reached 200.01 pence per litre, a record according to the RAC. Rising global oil prices are pushing pump prices up.

Why it matters

Energy prices weigh on the cost of living for British households.

United Kingdom2 sources
05

Gulf oil: exports resume, prices remain high

In September, Gulf oil exports returned to levels close to those before the American-Israeli war against Iran. This return is not enough to bring prices down. Brent stands at $102.25.

Why it matters

Despite the return of volumes, energy prices remain high.

1 source
1 source
06

G20: disagreement on industrial overcapacity

A small number of G20 Commerce ministers rejected the American call to reduce industrial overcapacity and 'non-market' policies, according to the office of the American Trade Representative.

Why it matters

This refusal reveals divisions within the G20 on trade policy.

1 source
07

Raytheon: two giant contracts with the Pentagon

Raytheon, a subsidiary of RTX, signed two contracts with the Pentagon: $24.4 billion for SM-6 interceptor missiles and $20.7 billion for a second programme.

Why it matters

These orders come amid an American missile crisis.

1 source
United States1 source

In brief

  • VietnamVietnam's economy grew 9.95% in the third quarter, its fastest pace in four years.Nikkei Asia ↗
  • RomaniaRomanian airline AnimaWings suspends all flights until October 24 after an insolvency request filed on September 30.La Tribune ↗
  • FranceThe State Council validates Auchan's social plan, which provides for nearly 2,400 job cuts.Le Monde Économie ↗
  • FranceAirbus delivered to Eutelsat a first batch of 32 new-generation OneWeb satellites.La Tribune ↗
  • FranceThe French government proposes raising the minimum index for the civil service to bring 400,000 employees above the minimum wage.Le Monde Économie ↗
  • ChinaSoybeans decline, hopes for a reduction in Chinese tariffs fading.Nikkei Asia ↗
  • Western Digital and Seagate shares fall, investors fearing increased production from Toshiba.MarketWatch ↗
  • FranceCorsica Linea suspends all activity until Monday after ships blocked in Marseille by sailors.Le Monde Économie ↗

Closing prices on 3 October 2026

Last close recorded for the briefing of 3 October 2026 (crypto: price at publication time, in US dollars). Information only, not financial advice. All markets and charts →

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 7,897.19 ↑ +0.79 %
DAX 25,231.2 ↑ +1.17 %
FTSE 100 10,461.95 ↑ +0.32 %
S&P 500 7,722.72 ↑ +0.73 %
Nasdaq 27,190.86 ↑ +1.19 %
Nikkei 225 68,309.46 ↓ -0.94 %
Hang Seng 23,972.29 ↓ -2.60 %
VIX 15.31 ↓ -6.59 %
Petrole Brent 102.25 ↓ -0.06 %
Gaz naturel 3.04 ↑ +2.29 %
Or 4,162.3 ↓ -0.95 %
EUR/USD 1.13 ↑ +0.06 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 84,638 USD ↓ -1.64 %
Ethereum 2,678.56 USD ↓ -1.95 %
BNB 766.34 USD ↓ -1.54 %
Solana 119.74 USD ↓ -1.83 %
XRP 1.49 USD ↓ -2.72 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 102.25 USD ↓ -0.06 %
Gaz naturel 3.04 USD ↑ +2.29 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 90% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 50% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Suez — traffic at 93% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Panama — traffic at 87% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 77% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 110% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 94% of normal levels data from 27 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 27 September

Ormuz — trafic a 50% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-27)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

  • AL-ZAQ, Saleem Abdallah Saleem — SDGT
  • BARIKA, Faouzi — SDGT
  • OUALID, Amel — SDGT
  • ASSOCIATION BARAKA — SDGT
  • ENSEMBLE C MIEUX — SDGT

19,488 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

61 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

spirals

SEVEN SEAS GROUP

spirals claims to have compromised this organization.

nightspire

Forma Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.

nightspire claims to have compromised this organization.

panzer

Paessolucoes

panzer claims to have compromised this organization.

rhysida

Mat Bao Corporation

rhysida claims to have compromised this organization.

qilin

Thai Lion Air

qilin claims to have compromised this organization.

rhysida

Electro Heat Sweden AB

rhysida claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Palau — traffic at 9% of normal levels
  • Montserrat — traffic at 30% of normal levels