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Horizon

Horizon — 29 September 2026

29 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 29 September 2026. Major floods in Bangkok and Thailand · North Korea to train 10,000 more soldiers for Russia · Fall in Brent oil price

The last thirty days

World

Floods strike Southeast Asia as migration and housing crisis worsens in Europe.

Archive image : NASA Spacecraft Shows Continued Flooding Woes in Thailand (2011)
Archive image : NASA Spacecraft Shows Continued Flooding Woes in Thailand (2011)NASA / JPL · Public domain · NASA
Top story
01

Major floods in Bangkok and Thailand

Bangkok was hit by significant flooding, with 320 mm of rain falling in two to three days, forcing residents to create makeshift floating markets. Thailand's 'One Map' alert system is being tested by this episode.

Why it matters

These floods affect millions of people and disrupt regional air traffic, with flight cancellations at Thai Airways.

02

Record rainfall in Tokyo, 34 consecutive days

Central Tokyo records 34 consecutive days of rain, a record, with continuous precipitation since August 27 due to approaching typhoons and a stationary rain front.

Why it matters

This exceptional weather episode illustrates the intensification of extreme weather phenomena in Asia.

Japan1 source
03

Aid to refugees drops sharply, UN warns

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees alerts to the decline in international contributions forcing it to reduce essential programmes in countries such as Chad, Syria or Afghanistan, threatening more than eight million refugees and displaced persons.

Why it matters

This reduction in global humanitarian aid endangers the survival of millions of displaced people across several continents.

1 source
04

Housing crisis in Spain, emblematic eviction resolved

Maricarmen Abascal, 87, evicted from her Madrid apartment which she had occupied since 1956, will be able to return thanks to an agreement, after massive demonstrations and the installation of tent camps in Madrid to denounce the housing crisis.

Why it matters

This symbolic case illustrates a housing crisis affecting several European countries and fuelling political pressure on the Spanish government.

Spain4 sources
05

Gironde megafire officially extinguished

The Saumos megafire in Gironde, which burned 42,000 hectares since this summer, was officially declared extinguished by the prefecture, two months after it started. This is the largest area burned ever recorded in France.

Why it matters

This record fire illustrates the intensification of climate risks in Europe and the need to modernize civil security in the face of megafires.

France1 source
06

Hurricane Polo threatens Mexico's Baja California peninsula

Category three Hurricane Polo is approaching Mexico with threatening winds and is expected to make landfall north of Cabo San Lucas, a heavily frequented tourist area.

Why it matters

This hurricane represents a serious risk to the populations and tourism economy of the region.

1 source
Mexico1 source

Geopolitics

Russia intensifies strikes on Kyiv and North Korea strengthens military support to Moscow, while the Iranian issue remains tense.

Illustration : North Korea
Illustration : North KoreaXiehechaotian · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

North Korea to train 10,000 more soldiers for Russia

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, North Korea will train 10,000 additional soldiers to support the Russian war effort, in addition to more than 8,000 military personnel already deployed on Russian territory. In return, Moscow provides technological support to Pyongyang.

Why it matters

This deepening of the Russian-North Korean alliance shifts the balance of the Ukrainian conflict and concerns Western powers over military technology transfers.

02

Deadly Russian strikes on Kyiv

Russian drones struck buildings, offices and a cultural building in Kyiv, killing at least 7 people and hitting the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine as well as a Vodafone Ukraine data centre.

Why it matters

These strikes are part of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war targeting the country's civil and telecommunications infrastructure.

Ukraine3 sources
03

Tense negotiations between Iran and United States via mediators

Iran met with Qatari mediators while Washington demands discussions on Iranian nuclear issues. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi awaits a response on the plan concerning the Strait of Hormuz, and Donald Trump denied having proposed sanctions relief to Tehran.

Why it matters

These talks determine the future of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global oil trade.

Iran United States4 sources
04

Netanyahu on surprise visit to United Arab Emirates

Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu was received by the Emirati president shortly after a controversy over ignored warnings before the October 7 attacks. According to Israeli media, he asked Mohammed Ben Zayed to deny having warned him before the attacks.

Why it matters

This visit comes in a sensitive diplomatic context for Israel and its relations with Gulf countries.

Israel United Arab Emirates2 sources
05

Alleged assassination plot near British air base

Five men arrested near Fairford air base in the United Kingdom, used by American forces, were released. The British government judges it too early to establish a link with a foreign state, while Iran denied any involvement.

Why it matters

This incident near a strategic military base fuels security concerns in the United Kingdom in a context of international tensions.

United Kingdom4 sources
06

Deadly air strike in Rakhine State in Myanmar

An air strike near a market in Rakhine State in Myanmar killed 33 people, in a country gripped by chaos since the military coup of February 2021.

Why it matters

This strike illustrates the persistence and worsening of internal conflict in Myanmar since the military coup.

Myanmar1 source

Markets

Markets remain globally stable despite a notable decline in oil and gold.

Top story
01

Fall in Brent oil price

Brent oil fell 5.53% to settle at 99.46 dollars, a marked decline over a single trading day.

Why it matters

Variations in oil prices directly influence energy and transport costs on a global scale.

02

Gold retreats to lowest level in seven weeks

The price of gold fell 3.4% to reach 4,174.3 dollars, its lowest level in seven weeks, in a context of rising US dollar and rising oil prices. Silver also lost nearly 5%.

Why it matters

This decline in gold, a traditional safe haven, reflects adjustments in global financial markets.

1 source
1 source
03

TotalEnergies confirms its ambitions in hydrocarbons

French major TotalEnergies announces it wants to continue investing in oil and gas at least until 2035 to meet global energy demand, a message well received by financial circles.

Why it matters

This strategy of a major European energy company influences debates on energy transition and investments in fossil fuels.

1 source
France1 source
04

Trade war between Canada and United States

The American ban on Canadian alcohol and dairy products came into force, marking a new escalation in the trade war between the two countries after failed negotiations in late August.

Why it matters

This commercial escalation between two major North American economies illustrates the persistence of global tariff tensions.

1 source
United States Canada1 source
05

Nvidia announces historic 150 billion dollar share buyback

Nvidia announced a 150 billion dollar share buyback programme, to be completed by January 2028, an amount described as historic and reflecting the company's confidence in the long-term prospects of the sector.

Why it matters

This announcement from one of the world's largest technology companies has repercussions across the semiconductor and artificial intelligence sector.

1 source
1 source
06

Trade agreement between United States and China on tariffs

Washington and Beijing published lists of non-sensitive products worth 60 billion dollars for tariff reductions, a few days after the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Washington.

Why it matters

This agreement between the world's two largest economies could ease trade tensions weighing on international commerce.

United States China2 sources

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,078.48 ↑ +0.01 %
DAX 25,374.42 ↓ -0.13 %
FTSE 100 10,684.88 ↓ -0.10 %
S&P 500 7,683.69 ↓ -0.77 %
Nasdaq 26,820.38 ↓ -0.92 %
Nikkei 225 65,235.37 ↓ -0.97 %
Hang Seng 24,566.94 ↓ -0.31 %
VIX 16.07 ↑ +8.07 %
Petrole Brent 99.46 ↓ -5.53 %
Gaz naturel 3.13 ↑ +4.20 %
Or 4,174.3 ↓ -3.40 %
EUR/USD 1.14 ↓ -0.09 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 83,822 USD ↑ +0.94 %
Ethereum 2,693.21 USD ↑ +1.75 %
BNB 762.28 USD ↓ -0.01 %
Solana 118.98 USD ↑ +0.47 %
XRP 1.5 USD ↑ +1.41 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 99.46 USD ↓ -5.53 %
Gaz naturel 3.13 USD ↑ +4.20 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 81% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 33% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 105% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Suez — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Panama — traffic at 90% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 88% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 103% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 91% of normal levels data from 20 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 96% of normal levels data from 20 September

Ormuz — trafic a 33% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-20)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,391 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

74 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

cry0

MinMor Industries

cry0 claims to have compromised this organization.

storm

Poca Valley Bank

storm claims to have compromised this organization.

lockbit5

camorim.com.br

lockbit5 claims to have compromised this organization.

qilin

Arnold Center

qilin claims to have compromised this organization.

inc ransom

bakemyday.se

inc ransom claims to have compromised this organization.

play

Starr Whitehouse Landscape Architects

play claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 5% of normal levels
  • Iraq — traffic at 18% of normal levels