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Horizon — 29 October 2026

Thursday 29 October 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 29 October 2026. Collision of two trains in Spain: at least 68 dead. Markets: Bitcoin $79,839 · VIX 17.15 · CAC 40 7,887 · Brent $110.59 · S&P 500 7,744 · Hang Seng 23,022

The last thirty days

World

The collision of two high-speed trains near Urda, in Spain, has killed at least 68 people and plunges the country into three days of national mourning; the rest of the news is dominated by the climate and health crisis.

Illustration : Spain — Madrid
Illustration : Spain — MadridDmitry Dzhus from London · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Collision of two trains in Spain: at least 68 dead

Spain · 4 sources

Wednesday morning, a Renfe high-speed train hit a stationary Iryo train on the Madrid-Andalusia line, near Urda, south of Toledo. The death toll is at least 68 and could rise further, according to the regional president. Spain is observing three days of national mourning, from Thursday to Saturday.

Why it matters

It is the worst railway disaster in Europe since 2013, the second in nine months after that of Adamuz. It reignites debate over the state and maintenance of the Spanish rail network.

4 sources
Le MondeBBC WorldLe MondeMercoPress
Theme illustration : Earth seen from space
Theme illustration : Earth seen from spaceNASA/Don Pettit · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
1 source
02

Climate must be declared a 'global health emergency'

In its tenth annual report, the medical journal The Lancet Countdown calls for recognizing climate change as a global health emergency. It describes it as the 'greatest threat to humanity'.

Why it matters

A call from scientists of this scale weighs on international political and health debates.

1 source
France 24
Democratic Republic of the Congo · 1 source
03

Last patient leaves an Ebola centre in DRC

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the last patient has left an Ebola treatment centre. Healthcare workers celebrated this discharge, captured in footage broadcast by Al Jazeera.

Why it matters

It is a sign of the epidemic receding in the country.

1 source
Al Jazeera
Democratic Republic of the Congo
India · 1 source
04

Cyclone kills six on India's east coast

At least six people have died after cyclone Arnab passed over India's eastern coast. Power supply remains cut in several areas on Thursday.

Why it matters

The damage affects coastal populations and disrupts basic services.

1 source
The Straits Times
India
Ethiopia, Kenya · 1 source
05

Ethiopia: 50,000 people flee to Kenya

Approximately 50,000 people have fled clashes between armed forces from the Somali and Oromia regions in southern Ethiopia. They have taken refuge in Kenya.

Why it matters

This mass displacement is creating a humanitarian crisis at the border between the two countries.

1 source
France 24
Ethiopia Kenya

In brief

  • ThailandThailand triggers red alert in Phuket, where roads are flooded by heavy rains.The Straits Times ↗
  • TanzaniaTanzania announces its first natural gas discovery in over ten years, hailed as a major milestone by its Energy minister.BBC World ↗
  • AfghanistanThe United Nations notes that poppy cultivation in Afghanistan is increasing despite the ban decreed by the Taliban.The Hindu ↗
  • ColombiaColombia carried out a strike against suspected drug traffickers from Clan del Golfo in Chocó, which killed at least six people.Le Monde ↗

Geopolitics

Israeli legislative elections have produced no clear majority and North Korea has fired around ten missiles; ongoing conflicts continue without major rupture.

Illustration : The Knesset
Illustration : The KnessetChezki Mozes · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Israel: no clear majority after legislative elections

Israel · 4 sources

With over 90% of ballots counted, Benyamin Netanyahu's bloc remains at 53 seats against 49 for the main opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot. Arab parties are making significant gains, with Arab voter turnout estimated at nearly 80%. A minority government, national unity or new elections remain possible.

Why it matters

These are the first legislative elections since Hamas attacks on October 7; the impasse leaves Israel's political future open.

4 sources
France 24Courrier internationalBBC WorldCourrier international
Illustration : Brazil
Illustration : BrazilRafael Rabello de Barros · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Brazil, United States · 4 sources
02

Flávio Bolsonaro flees to the United States after his defeat

Defeated by Lula in the second round, Flávio Bolsonaro left Brazil despite a Supreme Court ban, passing through Argentina and Ecuador, then landed in Miami. He proclaims himself 'true elected president' before calling himself 'leader', and denounces fraud without evidence. Lula will have to deal with a Congress where his camp does not have the majority.

Why it matters

This flight strains relations between Brazil, Argentina and the United States, and weakens the Bolsonaro camp.

4 sources
Le MondeBBC WorldAl JazeeraBuenos Aires Times
Brazil United States
North Korea, South Korea · 3 sources
03

North Korea fires around ten ballistic missiles

According to South Korean military command, North Korea has fired approximately ten short-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan. The Japanese coast guard has called on ships to remain vigilant. The firing comes less than a week after Seoul's proposal for talks.

Why it matters

It confirms rising tensions between the two Koreas after several incidents.

3 sources
Le MondeSouth China Morning PostThe Straits Times
North Korea South Korea
Canada · 4 sources
04

EU and Canada open a summit in Montreal

A two-day summit opens Thursday in Montreal between the European Union and Canada. It aims to expand cooperation on strategic minerals, digital trade, research and mobility.

Why it matters

The two partners are seeking to strengthen their ties while the American president is occupied with midterm elections.

4 sources
France 24Courrier internationalPolitico EuropePolitico Europe
Canada
United States · 3 sources
05

Judge rejects Trump intervention in California

A federal judge has rejected efforts by the Trump administration to intervene in California's midterm election. The government had accused the state of harboring 190,000 'illegal' voters, a figure reduced to 20,000. The judge finds that registered voters should not be deprived of a fundamental right based on unfounded allegations.

Why it matters

The decision constrains federal executive action five days before the November 3 election.

3 sources
Le MondeAl JazeeraThe Hindu
United States
Sudan · 2 sources
06

Drone strike on Darfur market: over 100 dead

A drone strike carried out Monday on a Darfur market has killed at least 102 people and wounded 113 civilians, according to the latest toll. Witnesses report that civilian traders were hit.

Why it matters

This heavy toll illustrates violence against civilians in Sudan's war.

2 sources
Courrier internationalAl Jazeera
Sudan
Russia · 2 sources
07

Russia-Africa summit: Putin receives around twenty leaders

Vladimir Putin welcomed around twenty African leaders on Wednesday for the 3rd edition of the Russia-Africa summit. Russia is seeking to tighten its ties with a continent rich in minerals. Ethiopia announced the receipt of twelve Su-35 fighters.

Why it matters

The summit shows Moscow's ambition to broaden its alliances and arms sales in Africa.

2 sources
France 24La Tribune
Russia
United States, Iran · 3 sources
08

Hegseth fires Pentagon's top military planner

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has fired the Pentagon's top military planner, without giving a reason or naming an immediate replacement. Washington has also warned regional allies to prepare for possible strikes against Iran, after the elections.

Why it matters

This firing comes as the American president is considering new strikes against Iran.

3 sources
South China Morning PostThe HinduThe Hindu
United States Iran

In brief

  • VenezuelaUnited KingdomVenezuela, through its interim president, demands the return of Venezuelan gold frozen by the Bank of England.Le Monde ↗
  • FranceThe French Senate voted Wednesday on the non-prescription of sexual crimes committed against minors, an unprecedented measure previously reserved for crimes against humanity.France 24 ↗
  • ArgentinaArgentina confirms that Flávio Bolsonaro entered via Puerto Iguazú before flying to Miami.MercoPress ↗
  • AfghanistanPakistanAt the Afghan-Pakistani border, a clash killed one person and wounded five.The Hindu ↗
  • SerbiaIn Belgrade, a man was shot after attacking a police officer in front of the Israeli embassy, according to the Serbian minister.BBC World ↗
  • TurkeyLibyaTurkey gains support from former adversaries in Libya for a maritime border agreement in the eastern Mediterranean.Al Jazeera ↗

Markets

Markets remain calm: European and American stock exchanges are stable to slightly up, the Nikkei advances 1.1%, Brent falls 4.1% but remains at 110.59 dollars and natural gas surges 7.28%.

Theme illustration : Federal Reserve headquarters, Washington
Theme illustration : Federal Reserve headquarters, WashingtonFederalreserve · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Fed leaves rates unchanged despite inflation

United States · 2 sources

The Federal Reserve has maintained its rates in a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, by 10 votes to 2. It cites the need for additional data in fighting inflation, which remains well above its target. The decision comes less than a week before midterm elections.

Why it matters

American rates weigh on credit and markets worldwide.

2 sources
The HinduLe Monde Économie
Illustration : United States — New Orleans
Illustration : United States — New Orleansthepipe26 · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
United States · 3 sources
02

Alphabet falls despite doubling cloud revenue

Alphabet's search advertising revenues grew 12% in the third quarter, against 17% in the second and 19% in the first. The doubling of cloud revenues was not enough to reassure Wall Street. Investors fear that AI will harm search monetization.

Why it matters

The slowdown shows the effect of artificial intelligence on the search engine's business model.

3 sources
MarketWatchLe Monde ÉconomieNikkei Asia
United States
United States · 2 sources
03

Microsoft climbs after results beat expectations

Microsoft convinced investors by showing rapid growth with controlled spending. Its stock advances after its results. The company announced this week buyouts for 60,000 employees.

Why it matters

Results from tech giants guide stock markets.

2 sources
MarketWatchBBC Business
United States
South Korea · 1 source
04

Samsung achieves the biggest profit in tech history

Samsung Electronics posts, with an exceptional third quarter, the largest profit ever recorded by a technology company.

Why it matters

This record illustrates the strength of demand in semiconductors.

1 source
Nikkei Asia
South Korea
United Kingdom · 4 sources
05

United Kingdom: Chancellor Healey's first budget

Chancellor John Healey presented his first budget, with a 100-pound payment for energy bills and a tax on banks. Tax thresholds remain frozen for three more years. The opposition judges the budget not bold enough.

Why it matters

The budget targets the cost of living in a difficult global economic context.

4 sources
BBC BusinessBBC BusinessBBC BusinessBBC Business
United Kingdom
France · 1 source
06

France becomes Europe's champion in levies again

According to Eurostat, France is again in 2025 the European Union country with the highest mandatory levies, with a rate of 46% of GDP.

Why it matters

This figure weighs on the debate over the 2027 budget, currently underway in the Assembly.

1 source
Les Échos
France
France · 1 source
07

2027 Budget: MPs reject surtax on large companies

MPs removed Tuesday evening the renewal of the tax on large companies' profits provided for in the 2027 budget. It is another setback for the government. This revenue section should however be rewritten.

Why it matters

The decision weakens the revenues planned by the executive.

1 source
Les Échos
France
India · 1 source
08

Jio Platforms breaks IPO record in India

On October 28, Jio Platforms shares surged 23% on their stock market debut, valuing the Indian telecom giant at over 12,500 billion rupees.

Why it matters

It is the strongest IPO ever seen in India.

1 source
Courrier international
India

In brief

  • Stellantis loses money again in the third quarter, with the Asian market weighing on the automaker's results.La Tribune ↗
  • Airbus and Boeing announce record order books at the end of the third quarter 2026.La Tribune ↗
  • VietnamVietnam sets the public ownership threshold at 65% for large banks to retain control of strategic groups.The Straits Times ↗
  • FranceThe amount of VAT declared on small parcels to France fell 48% between June and August, according to Bercy.La Tribune ↗
  • United StatesThe Boeing 737 MAX 10 has just been certified by the FAA, three years behind the original schedule.La Tribune ↗
  • FranceUnemployment rose 0.9% in the third quarter in France, according to figures from France Travail.Les Échos ↗

Closing prices on 29 October 2026

Last close recorded for the briefing of 29 October 2026 (crypto: price at publication time, in US dollars). Information only, not financial advice. All markets and charts →

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 7,886.96 ↑ +0.00 %
DAX 25,704.02 ↑ +0.44 %
FTSE 100 10,694.5 ↑ +0.07 %
S&P 500 7,743.98 ↑ +0.28 %
Nasdaq 26,549.85 ↑ +0.27 %
Nikkei 225 64,659.47 ↑ +1.10 %
Hang Seng 23,021.78 ↓ -0.32 %
VIX 17.15 ↑ +1.42 %
Petrole Brent 110.59 ↓ -4.10 %
Gaz naturel 3.02 ↑ +7.28 %
Or 4,042.4 ↓ -0.23 %
EUR/USD 1.11 ↑ +0.11 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 79,839 USD ↓ -1.24 %
Ethereum 2,306.31 USD ↓ -1.91 %
BNB 749.15 USD ↑ +0.65 %
Solana 99.71 USD ↓ -2.15 %
XRP 1.29 USD ↓ -2.57 %

aucun seuil franchi, marchés crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 110.59 USD ↓ -4.10 %
Gaz naturel 3.02 USD ↑ +7.28 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 119% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Ormuz — traffic at 75% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Malacca — traffic at 105% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Suez — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 93% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Douvres — traffic at 84% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Taïwan — traffic at 101% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 25 October

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

  • ZIGAMA CREDIT AND SAVINGS SOCIETY — DRCONGO
  • FIRST FINANCIAL AND TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT CENTER — DPRK3
  • KIM, Kyong Ju — DPRK3
  • RI, Thae Chol — DPRK3
  • SO, Hyong Jin — DPRK3
  • HAN, Yu Song — DPRK3
  • KIM, Sung Gwan — DPRK3
  • HYON, Se Il — DPRK3
  • BOYKOV, Ilya Aleksandrovich — DPRK2
  • KIM, Ki Hyok — DPRK2
  • KIM, Hyo Dong — DPRK2
  • OBERTAS, Vitold Viktorovich — DPRK2
  • MINISTRY OF DEFENCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA — DRCONGO

19,484 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,007 entries tracked at the UN

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Timor-Leste — traffic at 43% of normal levels

The world in figures

The background to that day's news: public data (conflicts, earthquakes, commodities, agenda). They are not part of the colours or the risk index.

Coming up

as of 29 October 2026

Major central bank decisions and national elections in the following weeks, as known that day.

  • 29 Octobersame day ECB: interest rate decision
  • 1 NovemberD+3 Bulgaria · President (2nd round)
  • 3 NovemberD+5 United States · Senate and House of Representatives
  • 5 NovemberD+7 Grenada · Parliament
  • 7 NovemberD+9 New Zealand · Parliament
  • 15 NovemberD+17 Cape Verde · President
  • 29 NovemberD+31 Spain · Senate and Congress of Deputies
  • 29 NovemberD+31 Switzerland · Referendums
  • 5 DecemberD+37 Gambia · President

Source : Fed, ECB, Wikipedia (electoral calendar)

Armed conflict

September 2026

13,286 estimated deaths · 43 countries

  • Ukraine 6,202
  • Yemen 2,924
  • Pakistan 667
  • Ethiopia 609
  • Nigeria 451
  • Sudan 277
  • Mexico 262

Central estimate, provisional monthly data; change versus the previous month.

Source : UCDP, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0) ↗

Earthquakes

previous 7 days

196 of magnitude 4.5+ · 6 of 6+

  • 7.0 China 22 October · orange alert
  • 6.9 Vanuatu 24 October
  • 6.5 Bonin Islands, Japan region 25 October
  • 6.3 Vanuatu 24 October
  • 6.1 Vanuatu 25 October

Source : USGS (public domain) ↗

Commodities

September 2026

Monthly average world prices in US dollars; indices 2010 = 100.

Level1 month1 year
Energy149+25.7 %+70.0 %
Food124+3.8 %+15.8 %
Fertilizers147+0.4 %−1.7 %
Base metals166+0.8 %+35.1 %
Precious metals339−1.9 %+22.6 %
Detailed prices
Level1 month1 year
Brent crude117 $/bbl+28.5 %+71.8 %
Natural gas (Europe)25.42 $/MMBtu+20.4 %+128.6 %
Wheat347 $/t+5.2 %+48.4 %
Maize240 $/t+7.0 %+21.4 %
Rice482 $/t+2.3 %+28.9 %
Cocoa5.92 $/kg−0.5 %−15.8 %
Arabica coffee7.26 $/kg−8.9 %−17.8 %
Copper14,474 $/t+1.0 %+45.0 %
Gold4,319 $/oz−2.1 %+17.7 %

Source : World Bank, Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0) ↗

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