Horizon

Horizon — 11 September 2026

11 September 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

The last thirty days

World

A deadly Ebola epidemic in DRC and a record-breaking August heat illustrate persistent global climate and health tensions.

Deadly Ebola epidemic in Democratic Republic of the Congo

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Ebola epidemic in DRC has caused 3,310 deaths out of 6,843 recorded cases. Congolese authorities are banking on the Everbo vaccine, launched fifteen days ago, to try to stem its spread.

Why it matters. An Ebola epidemic of this scale constitutes a major regional health threat and a test for international response capacities.

August 2026, hottest month ever recorded

The European meteorological service Copernicus announced that August 2026, with an average air temperature of 16.96°C, was the hottest August ever measured.

Why it matters. This record confirms the acceleration of global warming, with consequences for agriculture, water and public health in many countries.

Deadly fire in schools in Bukavu, DRC

Democratic Republic of the Congo

More than 20 children died in a fire that ravaged two schools in the city of Bukavu, in eastern DRC, under rebel control. A stampede occurred as children attempted to flee the flames.

Why it matters. This tragedy occurs in an area already weakened by armed conflict, where infrastructure and civil safety are severely degraded.

Growing freshwater shortage in the Netherlands

Netherlands

Long mobilized against flooding, the Netherlands now faces a freshwater shortage as the Rhine gradually dries up.

Why it matters. This shift from a country accustomed to fighting water to managing scarcity illustrates the concrete effects of climate change in Europe.

Deadly fire on a cargo ship in eastern China

China

A fire aboard a cargo ship in eastern China killed 25 people. Of 42 people on board, 17 were able to be evacuated according to Chinese state television CCTV.

Why it matters. This deadly maritime accident raises questions about the safety of commercial maritime transport in Asia.

Geopolitics

The Houthis' seizure of the strategic port of Mokha, threatening the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, marks a real escalation in the Red Sea crisis, while the war in Ukraine and tensions in Lebanon continue.

Houthis seize strategic port of Mokha in Yemen

4 sources

Yemen

The Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, took the city of Mokha on September 10, approximately 75-80 kilometers from the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. This seizure gives them increased control over the entrance to the Red Sea, a maritime route through which approximately 12% of global oil and goods transit.

Why it matters. Strengthened control of such a strategic passage point threatens global commercial navigation and drives up oil prices.

Russian strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian attacks on Russia

3 sources

UkraineRussia

Russian bombardments caused a fire in a residential building in Kyiv on Friday, causing several injuries. In parallel, Ukraine conducted long-range drone strikes against a refinery and a warehouse in Saratov. A separate Russian strike on a shopping center in Pavlohrad killed five people and wounded 67.

Why it matters. These exchanges of strikes are part of the ongoing conflict, with Donbas stronghold cities such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk now targeted by a Russian ground offensive.

Israel destroys Hezbollah tunnels in Lebanon

4 sources

LebanonIsrael

The Israeli army announced it had destroyed underground Hezbollah infrastructure beneath the Ali Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. The explosion caused a seismic tremor of magnitude 4.1 recorded by American authorities.

Why it matters. This operation is part of Israel's stated intention to complete the establishment of a security zone in southern Lebanon, maintaining tension with Hezbollah.

Algeria breaks diplomatic relations with United Arab Emirates

2 sources

AlgeriaUnited Arab Emirates

On September 10, the Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the breaking of its diplomatic relations with Abu Dhabi. Algiers accuses the Emirates of supporting politico-military forces considered a strategic threat, from Sudan to Mali via Niger and Libya.

Why it matters. This break illustrates the indirect confrontation between regional powers for influence in North Africa and the Sahel.

Hong Kong condemns three Tiananmen memorial activists

4 sources

Hong Kong

Activists Lee Cheuk-yan, Chow Hang-tung and Albert Ho, who organized vigils commemorating the Tiananmen crackdown, were sentenced to five to seven years in prison for 'incitement to subversion'. The group they represented was also fined 1.5 million Hong Kong dollars.

Why it matters. This conviction illustrates the continued repression of political freedoms in Hong Kong under the national security law imposed by Beijing.

Putin in India for BRICS summit

2 sources

IndiaRussia

Vladimir Putin began a three-day visit to India, his first in-person participation in a BRICS summit outside Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022. He is accompanied by a high-level delegation, and the summit is dominated by wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Why it matters. This visit illustrates Russia's efforts to maintain diplomatic alliances despite its Western isolation.

Markets

Global markets decline sharply, driven by the Nikkei (-1.92%), as oil surge and tensions over French and American debt fuel investor nervousness.

Global stock market decline, Nikkei leading

Major stock indices fell on September 10 and 11, 2026: the Nikkei 225 lost 1.92%, the DAX 0.84%, the FTSE 100 0.57%, the S&P 500 0.58% and the Nasdaq 0.65%. The VIX, volatility index, jumped 8.38%.

Why it matters. This widespread decline reflects increased investor nervousness in the face of geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates.

Spread between French and German rates at highest level since 2012

2 sources

FranceGermany

The 'spread', the gap between ten-year borrowing rates for France and Germany, reached a level unseen since the 2012 debt crisis. On September 10, the French OAT stood at 4.44% compared to 3.50% for the German Bund, a gap of approximately 94 basis points.

Why it matters. This deterioration in market confidence in French debt is causing concern beyond borders and weighs on the entire eurozone.

Oil price surge linked to Middle East tensions

4 sources

The price of Brent crude rose above 100 dollars, even reaching 105 dollars according to some sources, due to confusion around the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis' advance toward Bab el-Mandeb. Brent stood at 106.13 dollars on September 11.

Why it matters. The disruption of two major strategic straits for global oil trade raises fears of lasting consequences for global inflation and growth.

ECB raises rates in response to return of inflation

2 sources

The European Central Bank raised its rates by a quarter point on Thursday, its second increase this year, in response to the surge in energy prices fueling inflation.

Why it matters. This decision affects the cost of credit throughout the eurozone and reflects tensions between fighting inflation and supporting growth.

United Arab Emirates invest 40 billion euros in Germany

United Arab EmiratesGermany

The United Arab Emirates will invest a total of 40 billion euros in Germany, notably in advanced digital infrastructure and the development of new data centers.

Why it matters. This massive investment illustrates the strengthening of economic ties between the Gulf and Europe in a context of reshaping global economic alliances.

Marked economic slowdown in France

4 sources

France

INSEE revised down its growth forecast for 2026, bringing it to 0.4-0.5%, far from the 1% hoped for at the start of the year. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 8.6% of the active population by the end of 2026, and the government must revise its 2027 budget accordingly.

Why it matters. This slowdown places France in underperformance compared to the rest of the eurozone and complicates the country's budgetary trajectory, with repercussions on market confidence.

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,116.76 ↓ -0.49 %
DAX 25,361.15 ↓ -0.84 %
FTSE 100 10,608.92 ↓ -0.57 %
S&P 500 7,591.7 ↓ -0.58 %
Nasdaq 26,081.72 ↓ -0.65 %
Nikkei 225 64,016.66 ↓ -1.92 %
Hang Seng 24,844.45 ↓ -0.44 %
VIX 17.84 ↑ +8.38 %
Petrole Brent 106.13 ↓ -1.39 %
Gaz naturel 2.82 ↓ -0.42 %
Or 4,395.9 ↑ +0.72 %
EUR/USD 1.16 ↓ -0.15 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 77,225 USD ↓ -1.22 %
Ethereum 2,465.02 USD ↓ -0.29 %
BNB 714.79 USD ↓ -0.52 %
Solana 99.68 USD ↓ -1.98 %
XRP 1.35 USD ↓ -2.54 %

aucun seuil franchi, marches crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 106.13 USD ↓ -1.39 %
Gaz naturel 2.82 USD ↓ -0.42 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 75% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Ormuz — traffic at 50% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Malacca — traffic at 93% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Suez — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Panama — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Bosphore — traffic at 73% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 109% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Douvres — traffic at 98% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Taïwan — traffic at 104% of normal levels data from 6 September
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 88% of normal levels data from 6 September

Ormuz — trafic a 50% de la normale (donnee du 2026-09-06)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

  • AL-DHUHAIBAWI, Hussein Ahmed Hussein — SDGT
  • AL-SHAIKHLI, Mohamed Ameen Fadhil Ali — SDGT
  • AL-HRAISHAWI, Karrar Mohammed Qasim — SDGT
  • AL-LAMI, Ali Hasan Farhan — SDGT
  • SHAMS AND BAHR TRADING COMPANY L.L.C. — IRAN-EO13902
  • AL-MANDALAWI, Majid Ali Akbar Namdar — IRAN-EO13902
  • AL-MANDALAWI, Abdulhasan Ali Akbar Namdar — IRAN-EO13902
  • IBRAHIM, Hussein — SDGT
  • HAMIEH, Abdallah — SDGT
  • WEHBE, Ghaith Hussein — SDGT
  • ZAHRELDINE, Mervat Jamil — SDGT
  • YOUSEF IBRAHIM MANSOUR AND PARTNER FOR EXCHANGE — SDGT
  • GOLD PRO SARL — SDGT
  • AL-MAKANSI, Amir — SDGT
  • AL-TAMEEMI, Abbas Jawad Kadhim — SDGT

19,388 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,011 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

102 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

global secret group

CO-OP URBAN BANK LTD

global secret group claims to have compromised this organization.

vexy

i2k2 Networks

vexy claims to have compromised this organization.

beast

M800 and CINNOX

beast claims to have compromised this organization.

play

Sys-kool

play claims to have compromised this organization.

play

Grunthal Welding & Supplies

play claims to have compromised this organization.

rhysida

General Santos Doctors Hospital

rhysida claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Congo — traffic at 0% of normal levels
  • Iraq — traffic at 10% of normal levels
  • Myanmar — traffic at 10% of normal levels
  • Japan — traffic at 13% of normal levels
  • Senegal — traffic at 18% of normal levels
  • Malaysia — traffic at 20% of normal levels
  • Singapore — traffic at 24% of normal levels
  • Burundi — traffic at 41% of normal levels