Briefing for 30 October 2026. Four oil tankers on fire after mine explosions at Hormuz. Markets: Bitcoin $77,148 · CAC 40 7,969 · Brent $114.17 · S&P 500 7,579 · Hang Seng 23,294
The last thirty days
World
Mourning dominates after Spain's worst railway disaster since 2013, as four oil tankers catch fire in the Strait of Hormuz and the European Union faces an energy crisis before winter.
Four oil tankers on fire after mine explosions at Hormuz
Iran · 2 sources
Iran claims four oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran asserts that the ships had disabled their radars and navigation systems and ignored warnings from the Revolutionary Guards navy. Iran also says it captured an American drone.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz is a key oil transport passage, and the incident comes as energy prices are already under strain.
Spain: collision between two trains at Urda, south of Madrid
Two trains collided on October 28 at Urda, south of Madrid, in the worst tragedy on the Spanish rail network since 2013. Recordings suggest one train was authorized to travel while another was immobilized on the track. King Felipe VI visited the victims.
Why it matters
The disaster raises questions about the maintenance and safety of the rail network, and puts pressure on Transport Minister Óscar Puente, a month before legislative elections.
Bosnia: four dead in crash of European Force helicopter
An Italian helicopter of the European Force in Bosnia crashed Thursday in Brcko, in the northeast of the country. Four people died and twelve were injured. EUFOR refers to a CH-47 Chinook and confirms the death of four Italian nationals.
Why it matters
This is a serious accident for a European stabilization mission deployed in the country.
DR Congo: last Ebola patients leave treatment center
In Ituri, medical staff and residents sang and danced to celebrate the departure of the last patients from a treatment center. This is a first since May for this care facility.
Why it matters
This departure marks a decline in the epidemic in the affected area.
Fiji: one adult in 60 carries HIV, 'national emergency'
One adult in 60 carries HIV in Fiji, where the epidemic is described as a national emergency. Pregnant women are on the front line: 59 babies were born with the virus in 2025. Many infections are linked to drug trafficking and consumption.
Why it matters
This surge directly threatens the health of newborns and weighs on the entire country's health system.
Indonesia: smoke from fires caused 3,560 deaths in September
Pollution from months of forest fire smoke caused approximately 3,560 deaths in September in Indonesia, according to a new study.
Why it matters
The health toll from these fires is heavy, and a group of experts in Singapore is already examining companies suspected of links to the transboundary haze.
In Afghanistan, cuts in international aid, rising food prices and massive returns from Iran and Pakistan are worsening the humanitarian crisis. Children are among the first victims. Taliban policy is also being questioned.
Why it matters
The population lacks resources as international funding declines.
Ethiopia: border fighting pushes thousands toward Kenya
Fighting over contested land and water points in Ethiopia's Moyale region has driven thousands of people toward Kenya. Families find themselves homeless and hungry there.
Why it matters
This population displacement creates a humanitarian emergency on the other side of the border.
BhutanThe rupture of a glacial lake in Bhutan caused flooding, with no reported injuries, and an alert in northern West Bengal and Assam.The Straits Times ↗
SyriaFlash floods killed five people in Syria, including four children who drowned.Al Jazeera ↗
United StatesThree people died in the collision of two helicopters in flight near an airport in Oregon, United States.BBC World ↗
PeruIn Peru, victims of forced sterilizations will file a complaint with the general prosecutor for human rights after the investigation was closed.Le Monde ↗
AustraliaAustralian Erin Patterson lost her appeal against her conviction for murdering three relatives of her ex-husband with a deadly mushroom dish.BBC World ↗
British actor Patrick Stewart died at 86 from Alzheimer's disease, according to a statement released Thursday.France 24 ↗
Geopolitics
Israeli legislative elections leave Benjamin Netanyahu in the lead but without a majority, the war in Ukraine continues with a deadly strike on Dnipro and the United States enters the final week of the midterms.
Israel: Netanyahu camp leads in legislative elections but without majority
Israel · 4 sources
According to official results, Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing and far-right coalition obtains 53 seats out of 120 in the Knesset. The opposition led by centrist Gadi Eisenkot has 48 and the two Arab lists 19. The Likud party accuses Arab parties of having 'stolen' the election, which led President Isaac Herzog to call for not stigmatizing all Arab voting.
Why it matters
Without a clear majority, government formation is uncertain, and President Herzog could push for a unity government.
Ukraine: Russian strike kills at least 13 people at Dnipro station
A Russian drone attack killed at least 13 people Thursday at the central station in Dnipro, in eastern Ukraine, hitting a crowded platform of travelers. Courrier international reports 14 dead and 14 wounded. President Volodymyr Zelensky called the strike 'horrific'. From Thursday night to Friday, Moscow claimed to have struck industrial, energy and port sites in Kyiv, Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk oblast.
Why it matters
The strike targets civilians at a station and is part of a Russian campaign of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
United States: five days before midterms, Trump cancels two rallies
The Republican Party announced that Donald Trump's rallies in Kansas and Iowa would not take place this weekend. The American president will participate in 'virtual rallies' in nearly 20 states. Midterm elections are held on November 3, and more than 43 million ballots have already been cast in early voting. The Republican Party currently holds 53 seats out of 100 in the Senate.
Why it matters
This election will determine the balance of power in Washington for the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.
Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro leaves the country in a jet paid for from the United States
After his defeat in the presidential election to Lula, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro arrived Wednesday in Florida by private jet. The Wall Street Journal and New York Times indicate that the plane was paid for by an intermediary from an American bank account. An Argentine judge ordered the Milei government to provide information on any assistance. Flávio Bolsonaro presents himself as the leader of the opposition from the United States.
Why it matters
The affair involves foreign governments in the fate of a Brazilian opponent targeted by judicial investigations.
EU-Canada summit in Montreal: idea of Canada as 'associated member' maintained
Ursula von der Leyen and Mark Carney strengthened ties between the European Union and Canada at a summit in Montreal. The Commission president continues to speak of Canada as an 'associated member' of the EU, despite reservations from several member states, including Germany. Mark Carney acknowledged that reaching a pact would take several more months of negotiations.
Why it matters
The rapprochement between the EU and Canada is happening despite divisions among the Twenty-Seven on the form this partnership should take.
Iran: threat of new confrontation with United States and Israel
In Tehran, the threat of new confrontation with the United States and Israel is taken seriously. Iran says it is ready to respond to any attack, while maintaining diplomatic contacts with Washington through several countries in the region. The press of both countries mentions a rumor of operation after the midterms.
Why it matters
A resumption of war in Iran would have major regional and energy consequences.
Serbia: elected students demand resignations after their victory
The Student List movement won the October 25 legislative elections against Aleksandar Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party, which has ruled the country for 14 years. Its elected officials are now demanding the resignation of senior officials, particularly in police and justice.
Why it matters
This is a change of power after fourteen years of domination by the same party.
Kim Jong-un observed tests of explosive attack drones and called for acquiring 'absolute superiority' in drone technology and military artificial intelligence. Pyongyang also denounced joint air defense exercises by South Korea and the United States. Seoul says it wants to respond firmly to North Korean border violations.
Why it matters
Tensions are rising in the Korean peninsula since a mine explosion in September in the demilitarized zone.
In the European Union, eleven countries will release 42.6 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves to stabilize diesel prices before winter.Le Monde ↗
RussiaRussian newspaper Novaïa Gazeta, led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Dmitri Muratov, ceases publication.Le Monde ↗
CubaThe UN General Assembly voted on October 28 a resolution calling for an end to the American embargo on Cuba, by 130 votes to 17.The Hindu ↗
The cryptocurrency platform Binance suspended all deposits and withdrawals Thursday after a massive cyberattack. It estimates the frozen amount at $2.54 billion. The BBC puts the hack at $6.3 billion, suspected of being the largest in history, and two analysis firms attribute it to a North Korean group named TraderTraitor.
Why it matters
If the figure is confirmed, this would be the largest theft in cryptocurrency history, with customer funds blocked.
According to INSEE's provisional estimate, French GDP fell 0.1% in the third quarter, after stagnating in the second and falling 0.2% in the first. Economy Minister Roland Lescure estimates that 'the French economy is at a standstill' and calls for a restart of growth.
Why it matters
Three quarters without growth place the French economy on the brink of recession and weigh on fiscal consolidation.
Christine Lagarde will leave the ECB on February 7, 2027
The president of the European Central Bank will leave on February 7, 2027, nearly nine months before the end of her term. The Governing Council left rates unchanged despite a resumption of inflation in the eurozone.
Why it matters
This departure raises the question of her succession at the head of the eurozone's central bank.
Google's stock reached a six-month low after the group indicated that its artificial intelligence search summaries were weighing on its advertising revenue. Amazon also fell after close, on quarterly results below expectations.
Why it matters
Concerns about artificial intelligence weigh on major technology stocks and Wall Street.
Intel's stock collapses more than 20%, amid a slowdown in the computer market that would extend until 2027. High memory chip prices weigh on demand and companies' IT services have less budget for laptops.
Why it matters
This is one of the steepest declines in the stock in two years, reflecting pressure on the PC market.
Eleven EU countries release 42.6 million barrels of oil
Facing soaring prices, eleven European Union countries will tap their strategic reserves to stabilize diesel prices before winter. In France, the Finance Ministry ordered the release of strategic diesel stocks, which should lower pump prices by November 1. The Union assures that supply security will not be threatened.
Why it matters
With Brent crude at $112.49 a barrel, the measure aims to contain fuel prices for consumers.
Shell and TotalEnergies double profits through refining
Shell and TotalEnergies doubled their profits in the third quarter of 2026 and posted their best quarterly results since 2022. Refining margins are nearly four times higher than last year.
Why it matters
These results illustrate the effect of the energy crisis on the profits of major oil groups.
Bank of Japan deems inflation target reached and maintains rates
The Bank of Japan believes it has reached its 2% inflation target and leaves rates unchanged. It will also accelerate its ETF sales, more than doubling their pace from January.
Why it matters
The Japanese central bank continues to exit exceptional support, as the Nikkei falls 2.12%.
FranceThe Paris-based BHV store will likely be placed in judicial receivership, with Paris City Hall having limited means to limit the damage.Le Monde Économie ↗
FranceEurazeo co-chief executive William Kadouch-Chassaing was ousted after months of discussions and a weak stock price.La Tribune ↗
FranceThe French government says 'nothing is settled' on the minimum wage increase, with an answer expected around November 5.Les Échos ↗
ChinaEvergrande liquidators sell 51% of the group's real estate services subsidiary to PAG for $513 million.South China Morning Post ↗
United KingdomBritish retailer Poundland is about to be placed in administration, with its managers having filed a notice of intention to appoint administrators.BBC Business ↗
IndiaIndia's gold imports fell 81%, which could have an effect on global prices.Nikkei Asia ↗
FranceRenault stabilizes its revenue at €11.6 billion in the third quarter of 2026, thanks to record sales of electric vehicles.La Tribune ↗
Closing prices on 30 October 2026
Bitcoin: $77,148 (−4.78%)
Ethereum: $2,241.81 (−4.55%)
CAC 40: 7,969.42 (−0.01%)
S&P 500: 7,579.32 (−1.83%)
Nasdaq: 25,393.07 (−3.02%)
DAX: 25,818.21 (−0.85%)
FTSE 100: 10,729.78 (+0.07%)
Nikkei 225: 63,290.11 (−2.12%)
Hang Seng: 23,294.42 (+1.46%)
Brent crude: $114.17 (−0.62%)
Gold: $3,900.4 (−3.25%)
Natural gas: $2.9 (−1.63%)
Last close recorded for the briefing of 30 October 2026 (crypto: price at publication time, in US dollars). Information only, not financial advice. All markets and charts →
Today's indicators
Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.
Markets
Closing prices and changes
Value
Close
Change
CAC 40
7,969.42
↓ -0.01 %
DAX
25,818.21
↓ -0.85 %
FTSE 100
10,729.78
↑ +0.07 %
S&P 500
7,579.32
↓ -1.83 %
Nasdaq
25,393.07
↓ -3.02 %
Nikkei 225
63,290.11
↓ -2.12 %
Hang Seng
23,294.42
↑ +1.46 %
Petrole Brent
114.17
↓ -0.62 %
Gaz naturel
2.9
↓ -1.63 %
Or
3,900.4
↓ -3.25 %
EUR/USD
1.12
↑ +0.00 %
General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.
Crypto
Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
Value
Price
24h change
Bitcoin
77,148 USD
↓ -4.78 %
Ethereum
2,241.81 USD
↓ -4.55 %
BNB
701.25 USD
↓ -6.17 %
Solana
94.77 USD
↓ -6.73 %
XRP
1.25 USD
↓ -3.70 %
aucun seuil franchi, marchés crypto calmes
General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.
Supply chain
A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.
Energy prices and changes
Value
Price
Change
Petrole Brent
114.17 USD
↓ -0.62 %
Gaz naturel
2.9 USD
↓ -1.63 %
Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 119% of normal levels
data from 25 October
Ormuz — traffic at 75% of normal levels
data from 25 October
Malacca — traffic at 105% of normal levels
data from 25 October
Panama — traffic at 97% of normal levels
data from 25 October
Gibraltar — traffic at 93% of normal levels
data from 25 October
Douvres — traffic at 84% of normal levels
data from 25 October
Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 102% of normal levels
data from 25 October
International sanctions
Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.
No new entries since the last reading.
19,484 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,007 entries tracked at the UN
Cyber
63 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.
qilin
Sistemas Visuales 360
qilin claims to have compromised this organization.
qilin
Societe Ivoirienne De Telediffusion
qilin claims to have compromised this organization.
qilin
Palletline
qilin claims to have compromised this organization.
aurora
Rapid Manufacturing
aurora claims to have compromised this organization.
akira
FrenchCreek Production
akira claims to have compromised this organization.
ransomhouse
Phillips Nizer
ransomhouse claims to have compromised this organization.
Connectivity
Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.
Norfolk Island — traffic at 49% of normal levels
The world in figures
The background to that day's news: public data (conflicts, earthquakes, commodities, agenda). They are not part of the colours or the risk index.
Coming up
as of 30 October 2026
Major central bank decisions and national elections in the following weeks, as known that day.
1 NovemberD+2Bulgaria · President (2nd round)
3 NovemberD+4United States · Senate and House of Representatives
5 NovemberD+6Grenada · Parliament
7 NovemberD+8New Zealand · Parliament
15 NovemberD+16Cape Verde · President
29 NovemberD+30Spain · Senate and Congress of Deputies
29 NovemberD+30Switzerland · Referendums
5 DecemberD+36Gambia · President
5 DecemberD+366 December Northern Cyprus · Assembly of the Republic
Source : Fed, ECB, Wikipedia (electoral calendar)
Armed conflict
September 2026
13,286 estimated deaths · 43 countries
Ukraine6,202
Yemen2,924
Pakistan667
Ethiopia609
Nigeria451
Sudan277
Mexico262
Central estimate, provisional monthly data; change versus the previous month.
Spain
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Fiji
Indonesia
Afghanistan
Ethiopia
Kenya
Ukraine
United States
Brazil
Canada
Iran
Serbia
North Korea
South Korea
France
Japan
Bulgaria · President (2nd round)
Grenada · Parliament
New Zealand · Parliament
Cape Verde · President
Switzerland · Referendums
Gambia · President
Yemen
Pakistan
Nigeria
Sudan
Mexico
Vanuatu
24 October