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You are reading an archived briefing, as published on 31 October 2026 (1 day before the latest briefing).

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Archives31 October 2026

Horizon — 31 October 2026

Saturday 31 October 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 31 October 2026. Binance victim of $6.3 billion hacking. Markets: Bitcoin $77,344 · VIX 19.42 · CAC 40 7,969 · Brent $113.43 · S&P 500 7,580 · Hang Seng 23,294

The last thirty days

World

The hacking of $6.3 billion in cryptocurrencies at Binance, the COP17 agreement on biodiversity and a toll of over 5,000 Ebola deaths in DRC mark the day.

Theme illustration : Cryptocurrency mining farm
Theme illustration : Cryptocurrency mining farmCanaan · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Binance victim of $6.3 billion hacking

4 sources

The Binance exchange platform announced the theft of $6.3 billion in digital assets, presented as the largest hacking in the history of cryptocurrencies. Two analysis firms attribute the attack to the North Korean group TraderTraitor. Binance is seeking to recover the funds and has suspended withdrawals.

Why it matters

It is the largest theft ever recorded in the sector, with suspicions targeting North Korean hackers.

4 sources
BBC WorldLa TribuneBBC BusinessNikkei Asia
Illustration : River Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Illustration : River Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo)Bsm15 · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Democratic Republic of the Congo · 1 source
02

Ebola epidemic in DRC exceeds 5,000 deaths

The death toll from the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo has exceeded 5,000. Authorities are struggling to find a way to contain the epidemic, due to lack of approved treatment or vaccine.

Why it matters

Without approved treatment or vaccine, the epidemic remains very difficult to control.

1 source
Al Jazeera
Democratic Republic of the Congo
2 sources
03

COP17 adopts key texts for biodiversity

After two weeks of discussions marked by deep disagreements, COP17 on biodiversity adopted several key texts on Friday to protect nature. The question of funding remains pending.

Why it matters

This agreement revives global efforts to halt the decline of nature, even if its financing is not settled.

2 sources
France 24BBC World
Iran · 2 sources
04

Four tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz

Iranian Revolutionary Guards claim that four tankers caught fire after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman rescued 25 people from a burning ship. Tehran has restricted maritime traffic in the strait since the start of the war on February 28.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a key passage for oil transport, already disrupted by the war.

2 sources
Al JazeeraThe Hindu
Iran
Indonesia · 2 sources
05

The death toll from pollution from fires in Indonesia reaches 3,560

Smoke from months of fires in Indonesia caused approximately 3,560 deaths in September, according to a new study. Orangutans fled the flames in western Kalimantan.

Why it matters

Forest fires have a heavy health cost far beyond the burned areas.

2 sources
ABC News (Australie)The Straits Times
Indonesia
Bhutan, India · 1 source
06

A glacial flood damages roads and bridge in Bhutan

A flood caused by the rupture of a glacial lake damaged roads and swept away a bridge in Bhutan. Vulnerable areas in the Assamese districts of Dhubri and Kokrajhar were placed on alert.

Why it matters

The flood also threatens regions located downstream, in India.

1 source
The Hindu
Bhutan India
Spain · 3 sources
07

A second deadly railway accident in Spain

Two railway disasters, at Adamuz in January and then at Urda on October 28, struck the Madrid-Seville line, raising questions about the maintenance of the Spanish network.

Why it matters

These accidents raise the question of safety and maintenance of the railway network.

3 sources
Courrier internationalLe Monde ÉconomieBBC World
Spain
United States · 1 source
08

New York limits exchanges of AI agents with children

Governor Kathy Hochul signed two laws on October 28 that prohibit conversational artificial intelligence agents from any harmful interaction with minors, including the simulation of romantic relationships and incitement to self-harm.

Why it matters

These laws regulate the use of artificial intelligence by minors.

1 source
The Hindu
United States

In brief

Geopolitics

US midterm elections, the Polish Constitutional Court crisis, political deadlock in Israel and G20 disagreements dominate the news.

Illustration : The Knesset
Illustration : The KnessetChezki Mozes · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Israel: Netanyahu loses parliamentary majority

Israel · 4 sources

Following the legislative elections of October 27, Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc no longer has a majority in the Knesset. Arab parties, driven by record participation, become decisive, and Netanyahu seeks to disqualify their vote. The results must be certified and handed to the president on Wednesday, November 4.

Why it matters

The Prime Minister's political future now depends on difficult negotiations where the Arab vote carries weight.

4 sources
The HinduABC News (Australie)Le MondeFrance 24
Illustration : Constitutional Tribunal of the Republic of Poland
Illustration : Constitutional Tribunal of the Republic of PolandAdrian Grycuk · CC BY-SA 3.0 pl · Wikimedia Commons
Poland · 4 sources
02

Poland: crisis around the Constitutional Court

The government suspended two senior judges and seeks to prosecute them. Police deployed in Warsaw around the Constitutional Court and three people were arrested. The Polish president cut short a trip to Senegal to join the protesters.

Why it matters

The confrontation pits the government of Donald Tusk against President Karol Nawrocki and affects the independence of the country's highest court.

4 sources
Politico EuropeBBC WorldLe MondeAl Jazeera
Poland
United States · 4 sources
03

United States: midterm elections are decided on Tuesday

Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3 to renew Congress. More than 43 million voters have already voted early according to Al Jazeera, more than 47.9 million according to The Hindu. Donald Trump has restored two rallies in Kansas and Iowa, and claims that Republicans 'have a chance'. Pope Leo XIV voted by mail.

Why it matters

The ballot decides control of Congress for the rest of Trump's presidency.

4 sources
Al JazeeraThe HinduThe HinduMercoPress
United States
Ukraine, United States · 3 sources
04

United States approves sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine

Washington approved the sale of 500 Patriot missiles to Ukraine, for more than $2 billion. The agreement must be ratified by Congress. The Ukrainian president is concerned about the delivery date.

Why it matters

Patriot missiles are the only effective weapon against Russian ballistic missiles.

3 sources
Le MondeBBC WorldAl Jazeera
Ukraine United States
United States · 4 sources
05

G20: no consensus in Atlanta, family photo cancelled

The United States cancelled the family photo of G20 foreign ministers after several countries refused to be photographed with Russian Sergey Lavrov. The meeting ends without a joint communiqué, with Marco Rubio to publish a statement from the presidency.

Why it matters

Divisions over the war in Ukraine prevent any consensus at the G20.

4 sources
The HinduThe HinduThe Guardian (Australie)South China Morning Post
United States
Brazil, United States · 4 sources
06

Flavio Bolsonaro, refugee in the United States, denounces persecution

The former Brazilian presidential candidate left Brazil after his defeat and took refuge in the United States, after his passports were cancelled. He invokes 'persecution'. Brasília summoned an Argentine diplomat to obtain explanations about his passage through Argentina.

Why it matters

The affair raises questions about the role of the United States and Argentina in the flight of a Brazilian opponent.

4 sources
France 24Le MondeBuenos Aires TimesSouth China Morning Post
Brazil United States
Western Sahara · 2 sources
07

Western Sahara: Russia blocks renewal of Minurso

Russia vetoed at the Security Council an American draft resolution extending the UN mission, Minurso, for one year and placing the Moroccan autonomy plan at the center of the conflict settlement. The mandate was not renewed.

Why it matters

The UN mission in Western Sahara finds itself without a mandate.

2 sources
Le MondeCourrier international
Western Sahara
Canada · 4 sources
08

Canada and EU announce alliance after their Montreal summit

Following a two-day summit in Montreal, the European Union and Canada announced measures on Erasmus, instant transfers and an agreement, as well as an 'Alliance for the Future' open to other countries. Mark Carney sets a deadline for the track of an associated EU membership.

Why it matters

This unprecedented rapprochement redefines ties between Canada and Europe in the face of the United States.

4 sources
Le MondePolitico EuropePolitico EuropeThe Guardian Business
Canada

In brief

  • North KoreaThe United States, South Korea and Japan reaffirm their objective of 'complete denuclearization' of North Korea.The Hindu ↗
  • UkraineResidents were evacuated from the occupied Ukrainian city of Oleshky as part of a local ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.Courrier international ↗
  • Costa RicaRebeca Grynspan, from Costa Rica, remains ahead in voting for the next UN Secretary-General, ahead of Emirati Lana Nusseibeh.Le Monde ↗
  • PolandA Russian is being prosecuted for espionage in Poland after photographing railway tracks at an unguarded level crossing.Politico Europe ↗
  • United StatesAn American court sentenced two Chinese nationals to prison for espionage, with money transfers in 'dead drop'.Al Jazeera ↗
  • AzerbaijanTurkeyAzerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev boycotted a summit of Turkic states, despite a personal invitation from the Turkish president.The Straits Times ↗
  • VenezuelaVenezuela appoints Oliver Blanco, 35, a former opposition collaborator, as Foreign Minister.MercoPress ↗
  • RussiaUkraineUkraine has resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries, according to Moscow.The Hindu ↗

Markets

American markets fell on Friday: the Nasdaq lost 2.86% and the S&P 500 1.82%, with concerns about the profitability of AI spending.

Theme illustration : New York Stock Exchange
Theme illustration : New York Stock ExchangeDietmar Rabich · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Wall Street falls on AI concerns

United States · 4 sources

American technology stocks fell sharply on Friday, with investors doubting the profitability of sums invested in AI. The Nasdaq lost 2.86% and the S&P 500 1.82%. Intel's stock had its worst day in decades, with $140 billion evaporated.

Why it matters

Concerns about the profitability of AI spending, close to $1 trillion, weigh on major names in the sector.

4 sources
Le MondeBBC WorldMarketWatchThe Guardian Business
Illustration : INSEEC
Illustration : INSEECYtoSu · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
France · 4 sources
02

France nears recession: GDP falls 0.1% in third quarter

France's GDP fell 0.1% in the third quarter, after stagnation in the second and a decline of 0.2% in the first, according to INSEE. Private sector employment fell 0.1%, or nearly 26,000 jobs lost. Economy Minister Roland Lescure judges the economy 'at a standstill'.

Why it matters

The country is flirting with recession as the budget debate is open.

4 sources
Les ÉchosLa TribuneLe Monde ÉconomieLes Échos
France
France · 2 sources
03

Fitch downgrades France's outlook to negative

While it had maintained France's sovereign rating at A+ at the end of August, Fitch changed its outlook from stable to negative. It points to a deterioration in the budget situation and borrowing rates.

Why it matters

This warning weighs on budget debates and the cost of French debt.

2 sources
Les ÉchosLe Monde Économie
France
France · 1 source
04

French inflation exceeds 3% in October

Driven by energy prices, inflation stood at 3.4% year-on-year in October, the highest since January 2024.

Why it matters

Energy prices weigh on purchasing power.

1 source
Les Échos
France
United States · 2 sources
05

Google loses $500 billion in market value

Google's stock hit a six-month low after admitting that its own AI search summaries weigh on its advertising revenues. Reddit experienced its largest single-day decline after announcing a drop in traffic from search engines.

Why it matters

AI weakens the advertising model of search engines.

2 sources
BBC BusinessMarketWatch
United States
1 source
06

Oil transport made more expensive by Middle East war

The conflict in the Middle East is making tankers scarce and lengthening transport times, which is driving freight rates to record levels. Brent stands at $113.43.

Why it matters

Rising freight costs further increase energy and disrupt supply chains.

1 source
Le Monde
France · 1 source
07

Diesel price to fall by up to 18 cents on Sunday

According to the government, the price of diesel should fall by up to 18 cents per liter from Sunday, November 1. The discount should apply unevenly from one distributor to another.

Why it matters

The measure aims to ease the bill for motorists, but its implementation promises to be uneven.

1 source
Le Monde Économie
France
1 source
08

Gold falls to lowest level in a year

Gold fell to its lowest price in a year, despite new concerns about attacks in the Middle East after the American elections. It fell 3.29% to $3,898.9.

Why it matters

An unusual decline for a safe haven value in times of tension.

1 source
MarketWatch

In brief

Closing prices on 31 October 2026

Last close recorded for the briefing of 31 October 2026 (crypto: price at publication time, in US dollars). Information only, not financial advice. All markets and charts →

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 7,969.42 ↓ -0.01 %
DAX 25,818.21 ↓ -0.85 %
FTSE 100 10,729.78 ↑ +0.07 %
S&P 500 7,580.07 ↓ -1.82 %
Nasdaq 25,437 ↓ -2.86 %
Nikkei 225 63,290.11 ↓ -2.12 %
Hang Seng 23,294.42 ↑ +1.46 %
VIX 19.42 ↑ +12.91 %
Petrole Brent 113.43 ↓ -1.26 %
Gaz naturel 2.9 ↓ -1.83 %
Or 3,898.9 ↓ -3.29 %
EUR/USD 1.12 ↑ +0.09 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 77,344 USD ↓ -1.42 %
Ethereum 2,243.8 USD ↓ -0.12 %
BNB 700.7 USD ↓ -1.55 %
Solana 95.85 USD ↓ -2.21 %
XRP 1.25 USD ↓ -0.98 %

aucun seuil franchi, marchés crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 113.43 USD ↓ -1.26 %
Gaz naturel 2.9 USD ↓ -1.83 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 119% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Malacca — traffic at 105% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Panama — traffic at 97% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Bosphore — traffic at 93% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 93% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Douvres — traffic at 84% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Taïwan — traffic at 101% of normal levels data from 25 October
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 25 October

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,484 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,007 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

72 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

leakeddata

ArentFox Schiff

leakeddata claims to have compromised this organization.

deadlock

Hensel Elektrik

deadlock claims to have compromised this organization.

genesis

Acclaim Companies / JCJ Investment

genesis claims to have compromised this organization.

genesis

Gilliam & Associates, P.C

genesis claims to have compromised this organization.

genesis

Facts N Figures

genesis claims to have compromised this organization.

genesis

Illinois Work Injury Resource Center (IWIRC)

genesis claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Norfolk Island — traffic at 49% of normal levels

The world in figures

The background to that day's news: public data (conflicts, earthquakes, commodities, agenda). They are not part of the colours or the risk index.

Coming up

as of 31 October 2026

Major central bank decisions and national elections in the following weeks, as known that day.

  • 1 Novembernext day Bulgaria · President (2nd round)
  • 3 NovemberD+3 United States · Senate and House of Representatives
  • 5 NovemberD+5 Grenada · Parliament
  • 7 NovemberD+7 New Zealand · Parliament
  • 15 NovemberD+15 Cape Verde · President
  • 29 NovemberD+29 Spain · Senate and Congress of Deputies
  • 29 NovemberD+29 Switzerland · Referendums
  • 5 DecemberD+35 Gambia · President
  • 5 DecemberD+35 6 December Northern Cyprus · Assembly of the Republic

Source : Fed, ECB, Wikipedia (electoral calendar)

Armed conflict

September 2026

13,286 estimated deaths · 43 countries

  • Ukraine 6,202
  • Yemen 2,924
  • Pakistan 667
  • Ethiopia 609
  • Nigeria 451
  • Sudan 277
  • Mexico 262

Central estimate, provisional monthly data; change versus the previous month.

Source : UCDP, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0) ↗

Earthquakes

previous 7 days

161 of magnitude 4.5+ · 5 of 6+

  • 6.5 Bonin Islands, Japan region 25 October
  • 6.4 southeast of Easter Island 29 October
  • 6.2 Vanuatu 29 October
  • 6.1 Vanuatu 25 October
  • 6.0 Vanuatu 28 October

Source : USGS (public domain) ↗

Commodities

September 2026

Monthly average world prices in US dollars; indices 2010 = 100.

Level1 month1 year
Energy149+25.7 %+70.0 %
Food124+3.8 %+15.8 %
Fertilizers147+0.4 %−1.7 %
Base metals166+0.8 %+35.1 %
Precious metals339−1.9 %+22.6 %
Detailed prices
Level1 month1 year
Brent crude117 $/bbl+28.5 %+71.8 %
Natural gas (Europe)25.42 $/MMBtu+20.4 %+128.6 %
Wheat347 $/t+5.2 %+48.4 %
Maize240 $/t+7.0 %+21.4 %
Rice482 $/t+2.3 %+28.9 %
Cocoa5.92 $/kg−0.5 %−15.8 %
Arabica coffee7.26 $/kg−8.9 %−17.8 %
Copper14,474 $/t+1.0 %+45.0 %
Gold4,319 $/oz−2.1 %+17.7 %

Source : World Bank, Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0) ↗

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