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Horizon — 12 November 2026

Thursday 12 November 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 12 November 2026. Brooklyn: building collapse kills at least two. Markets: Bitcoin $73,522 · VIX 17.49 · CAC 40 8,333 · Brent $93.23 · S&P 500 7,619 · Hang Seng 24,006

The last thirty days

World

A building collapses in Brooklyn, bomb alerts target thousands of European schools and the SS United States ship is sunk to form an artificial reef.

Illustration : Brooklyn (United States)
Illustration : Brooklyn (United States)Newyork10r at English Wikipedia · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Brooklyn: building collapse kills at least two

United States · 4 sources

A three-story building collapsed Wednesday afternoon in Brooklyn, New York. At least two people died and seventeen were injured, including seven children. Firefighters are continuing search operations in the rubble, and the causes of the collapse are not yet known.

Why it matters

The search for survivors continues, and the death toll could rise further.

Illustration : Italy — Naples
Illustration : Italy — NaplesWolfgang Moroder · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Italy, Ireland · 4 sources
02

Bomb alerts target thousands of schools in Europe

Threatening emails were sent to thousands of schools in Italy, Ireland and the United Kingdom. More than 6,000 Italian schools received the threat and several hundred were evacuated. The emails are signed by someone called 'Mikhail Andropov'. The authorities of the three countries believe there is no risk to the public.

Why it matters

The press in the three countries is describing a coordinated attack that disrupted thousands of students.

Italy Ireland
Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo · 2 sources
03

Kenya releases its last Ebola patient

Kenya has released its last patient with Ebola, a major step towards ending the epidemic on its soil. A 42-day countdown begins: the country will be declared Ebola-free if no new cases are registered. Médecins sans frontières says the epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo remains out of control after six months.

Why it matters

Kenya is approaching an exit from the crisis, while the situation remains serious in DRC.

South Sudan · 3 sources
04

South Sudan: Amnesty accuses authorities and UN of inaction before massacre

In a report published Thursday, Amnesty International says the South Sudanese government and the UN mission had information and time to act before the massacre in Abiemnom, where more than 200 people were killed on March 1. Blue helmets knew a raid was likely, according to the organization.

Why it matters

The report questions the UN's ability to protect civilians.

South Sudan
United States · 3 sources
05

Liner SS United States sunk off Florida

The liner SS United States, the largest passenger ship built in the United States, was deliberately sunk off Florida. Activists had tried in vain to save it to turn it into a museum. It becomes the world's largest artificial reef.

Why it matters

It is the end of a historic ship, whose preservation had mobilized heritage defenders.

United States
United States, Mexico · 1 source
06

Kenya and Mexico: the United States, Mexico and Guatemala risk losing their measles-free status

An independent commission is examining whether countries in the Americas still meet the criteria for measles elimination. The United States, Mexico and Guatemala could lose this status.

Why it matters

Losing this status would mean measles is circulating again permanently in these countries.

1 source
United States Mexico

In brief

  • AustraliaA 17-year-old Australian teenager, missing for six days in the bush of Victoria State, has been found alive.BBC World ↗
  • NepalIn Nepal, at least ten people died when a passenger vehicle fell down a steep slope.The Hindu ↗
  • CanadaIn Canada, four grizzly bears were shot after killing a mother and her 20-year-old daughter.BBC World ↗
  • Trinidad and TobagoIn Trinidad and Tobago, the highest judicial authority decriminalizes homosexuality, ruling the law contrary to the Constitution.Courrier international ↗
  • IndiaIn Arunachal Pradesh, India, a fire ravages twenty-five houses and kills four people including three children.Hindustan Times ↗

Geopolitics

American envoys are in Moscow after talks without breakthrough in Abu Dhabi, while Iran threatens bases from which American attacks would be launched.

Illustration : Moscow (Russia)
Illustration : Moscow (Russia)U.S. Department of State · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

American envoys meet Putin in Moscow after Abu Dhabi

Russia, Ukraine · 4 sources

Talks between Ukraine and Russia ended Wednesday in Abu Dhabi without progress on a ceasefire, with a promise of prisoner exchange. They focused on Europe's security framework after the war. American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday, then Volodymyr Zelensky in Dublin.

Why it matters

Washington is seeking to restart negotiations without the talks having produced a breakthrough.

Illustration : Tehran (Iran)
Illustration : Tehran (Iran)Amir Pashaei · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Iran, Israel · 3 sources
02

Iran threatens to strike bases from which American attacks would be launched

Tehran threatened Wednesday to strike any military base from which American aircraft seeking to bomb Iran would take off, even if located in a European country. According to Israeli media, Israel's security cabinet has ordered the military to strengthen its preparations for a possible attack on Iran. Gadi Eisenkot is calling on Benjamin Netanyahu for restraint.

Why it matters

The threat extends the risk of conflict to bases located in Europe.

Iran Israel
France, Israel · 2 sources
03

Israeli settler leader turned away on arrival in France

Yossi Dagan, who heads a structure representing Jewish settlements in the north of occupied West Bank, was denied entry to France because of his active role in settlement. Israel denounces an unacceptable measure and says it wants to demand explanations from the French government.

Why it matters

The incident worsens tensions between Israel and European countries.

France Israel
Russia, France · 2 sources
04

Two French journalists and two deputies banned from staying in Russia

Russia has banned deputies Sacha Houlié and Arthur Delaporte, as well as journalists Ariane Chemin, from Le Monde, and Paul Gogo from staying. Moscow cites their participation in harassment of Xenia Fedorova.

Why it matters

The measure marks a further deterioration in relations between Paris and Moscow.

Russia France
Indonesia · 4 sources
05

Indonesia: Vice-President Gibran submits resignation

Indonesian Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, son of former president Joko Widodo, submitted his resignation to Parliament on Thursday. Courts had contested the equivalence of his degree obtained abroad, and elected officials were demanding his removal. Joko Widodo continues to support Prabowo, but the episode weakens the ruling alliance.

Why it matters

The departure could mark the end of the alliance between President Prabowo and his predecessor.

Indonesia
Democratic Republic of the Congo · 2 sources
06

DRC: Félix Tshisekedi enacts law paving way for new Constitution

President Félix Tshisekedi enacted on November 9 a law allowing a new Constitution to be submitted to referendum. His second term ends in late 2028; the opposition accuses him of wanting to stay in power.

Why it matters

The text could open the path to a third term for the president.

United States · 4 sources
07

Mississippi: Democrat Scott Colom elected to US Senate

Democrat Scott Colom, 43-year-old district prosecutor, narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. He becomes Mississippi's first black senator since 1874 and strengthens the Democratic majority in the Senate. Democratic elected officials are preparing investigations into the Trump administration.

Why it matters

Democrats, stronger in Congress, can now oversee the Trump administration.

United States
Yemen, Saudi Arabia · 2 sources
08

Yemen: fighting intensifies, missile debris falls near Mecca

The World Health Organization says more than 320,000 people have been displaced by fighting in Yemen since August 1. Saudi Arabia says debris from two intercepted ballistic missiles fell in the Mecca region, while the Houthis deny targeting Mecca.

Why it matters

The conflict is displacing hundreds of thousands of people and affecting Saudi territory.

Yemen Saudi Arabia

In brief

Markets

European and American markets end higher Wednesday, while Nvidia falls sharply after reports about its chief executive's future.

Theme illustration : Silicon wafer (semiconductors)
Theme illustration : Silicon wafer (semiconductors)Radiotrefoil · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Nvidia: board ready to remove CEO Jensen Huang, accused of second affair

4 sources

Nvidia's board of directors met Wednesday to decide whether to remove its CEO Jensen Huang, according to the Wall Street Journal and Reuters. The stock lost more than 8% in after-hours trading, dragging down Nasdaq futures. The New York Times also mentions a second affair involving Jensen Huang, with a vice-president of the company. Chinese AI groups are meanwhile seeking to secure Nvidia chip capacity abroad.

Why it matters

The future of the chief executive of the leading AI processor supplier weighs on the entire sector.

Theme illustration : HM Treasury, London
Theme illustration : HM Treasury, LondonRobert Lamb · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
United Kingdom · 1 source
02

United Kingdom: growth accelerates to 0.7% in third quarter

The British economy grew 0.7% over the three months to end September, according to official figures, the fastest pace in more than two years.

Why it matters

This is a clear pickup in growth for the British economy.

1 source
United Kingdom
France · 1 source
03

Moody's forecasts only 0.2% growth for France in 2026

Moody's agency sharply revises down its growth forecast for France in 2026, to 0.2% of GDP.

Why it matters

This forecast weighs on French public finances.

1 source
France
France · 1 source
04

Minimum wage increase: CGT calculates record number of sectors below minimum

According to the CGT, 164 sectors, or more than 14 million employees out of 22 million, will have a minimum below the minimum wage from December. Its calculations differ from those of the government.

Why it matters

The figure fuels debate over wages in France.

1 source
France
France · 2 sources
05

Fuel: government does not rule out tapping strategic stocks again

The release of 10% of diesel stocks has lowered pump prices by 20 cents since November 1. Commerce Minister Serge Papin does not rule out repeating it, but his ministry clarifies that a new release is not on the agenda.

Why it matters

Fuel prices remain a direct concern for households.

France
Brazil · 1 source
06

Petrobras: net profit jumps 21.5% in third quarter

Brazilian oil group Petrobras posted net profit of 7.7 billion dollars in the third quarter, up 21.5%.

Why it matters

The result illustrates the strength of the oil sector.

1 source
Brazil
Australia · 1 source
07

Australia: regulator sues Commonwealth Bank for overcharging

Australian regulator sues Commonwealth Bank, the country's leading lender, accusing it of overcharging businesses. A 2016 internal audit had found excessive withdrawal fees.

Why it matters

The action targets Australia's largest bank.

Australia

In brief

Closing prices on 12 November 2026

Last close recorded for the briefing of 12 November 2026 (crypto: price at publication time, in US dollars). Information only, not financial advice. All markets and charts →

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,332.87 ↑ +0.66 %
DAX 26,662.77 ↑ +1.20 %
FTSE 100 10,835.47 ↑ +0.78 %
S&P 500 7,619.38 ↑ +1.31 %
Nasdaq 25,466.19 ↑ +1.60 %
Nikkei 225 60,819.36 ↓ -0.70 %
Hang Seng 24,006.11 ↓ -1.27 %
VIX 17.49 ↓ -10.12 %
Petrole Brent 93.23 ↑ +0.51 %
Gaz naturel 3.24 ↑ +0.75 %
Or 3,968.4 ↓ -0.80 %
EUR/USD 1.11 ↓ -0.81 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 73,522 USD ↓ -0.38 %
Ethereum 2,047.65 USD ↓ -0.63 %
BNB 673.66 USD ↓ -0.85 %
Solana 82.82 USD ↑ +0.06 %
XRP 1.04 USD ↓ -1.39 %

aucun seuil franchi, marchés crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 93.23 USD ↑ +0.51 %
Gaz naturel 3.24 USD ↑ +0.75 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 105% of normal levels data from 8 November
  • Ormuz — traffic at 73% of normal levels data from 8 November
  • Malacca — traffic at 105% of normal levels data from 8 November
  • Suez — traffic at 103% of normal levels data from 8 November
  • Panama — traffic at 94% of normal levels data from 8 November
  • Bosphore — traffic at 85% of normal levels data from 8 November
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 108% of normal levels data from 8 November
  • Douvres — traffic at 111% of normal levels data from 8 November
  • Taïwan — traffic at 96% of normal levels data from 8 November
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 91% of normal levels data from 8 November

Source: Global Fishing Watch (AIS vessel presence)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

  • ALLIANCE FLEUVE CONGO (AFC) — DRC listed on 14 July

19,563 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,007 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

123 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

akira

Leware Construction Company ofFlorida

akira claims to have compromised this organization.

akira

R3 Composites

akira claims to have compromised this organization.

akira

Quality Air

akira claims to have compromised this organization.

deadlock

Kadick

deadlock claims to have compromised this organization.

the gentlemen

EiCOh

the gentlemen claims to have compromised this organization.

the gentlemen

Vinson

the gentlemen claims to have compromised this organization.

The world in figures

The background to that day's news: public data (conflicts, earthquakes, commodities, agenda). They are not part of the colours or the risk index.

Coming up

as of 12 November 2026

Major central bank decisions and national elections in the following weeks, as known that day.

  • 15 NovemberD+3 Cape Verde · President
  • 29 NovemberD+17 Spain · Senate and Congress of Deputies
  • 29 NovemberD+17 Switzerland · Referendums
  • 5 DecemberD+23 Gambia · President
  • 5 DecemberD+23 6 December Northern Cyprus · Assembly of the Republic
  • 9 DecemberD+27 Fed: interest rate decision
  • 9 DecemberD+27 Fiji · Constitutional referendum
  • 13 DecemberD+31 Transnistria · President
  • 17 DecemberD+35 ECB: interest rate decision

Source : Fed, ECB, Wikipedia (electoral calendar)

Armed conflict

September 2026

13,286 estimated deaths · 43 countries

  • Ukraine 6,202
  • Yemen 2,924
  • Pakistan 667
  • Ethiopia 609
  • Nigeria 451
  • Sudan 277
  • Mexico 262

Central estimate, provisional monthly data; change versus the previous month.

Source : UCDP, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0) ↗

Earthquakes

previous 7 days

102 of magnitude 4.5+ · 3 of 6+

  • 6.4 Solomon Islands 9 November
  • 6.1 Japan 6 November
  • 6.1 Fiji region 5 November
  • 5.8 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge 7 November
  • 5.7 Japan 9 November

Source : USGS (public domain) ↗

Commodities

October 2026

Monthly average world prices in US dollars; indices 2010 = 100.

Level1 month1 year
Energy160+7.1 %+89.3 %
Food122−1.8 %+14.7 %
Fertilizers148+0.8 %+6.2 %
Base metals162−2.6 %+24.0 %
Precious metals318−6.2 %+3.3 %
Detailed prices
Level1 month1 year
Brent crude125 $/bbl+7.0 %+93.2 %
Natural gas (Europe)28.50 $/MMBtu+12.1 %+161.7 %
Wheat317 $/t−8.6 %+37.3 %
Maize227 $/t−5.5 %+14.3 %
Rice489 $/t+1.5 %+37.4 %
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9 %−3.4 %
Arabica coffee7.40 $/kg+1.9 %−16.9 %
Copper14,508 $/t+0.2 %+35.1 %
Gold4,105 $/oz−5.0 %+1.2 %

Source : World Bank, Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0) ↗

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