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Horizon — 5 November 2026

Thursday 5 November 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 5 November 2026. WHO alerts to worst cholera epidemic in DRC in decades. Markets: Bitcoin $80,528 · CAC 40 8,178 · Brent $94.74 · S&P 500 7,689 · Hang Seng 24,868

The last thirty days

World

A day dominated by the aftermath of the American midterms, while the WHO alerts to the worst cholera epidemic in decades in the DRC and floods linked to El Niño strike the Galápagos.

Theme illustration : Cholera bacteria (micrograph)
Theme illustration : Cholera bacteria (micrograph)Chainwit. · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

WHO alerts to worst cholera epidemic in DRC in decades

Democratic Republic of the Congo · 1 source

The World Health Organization has alerted to the 'worst cholera epidemic in decades' in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with 1,800 deaths. This epidemic occurs against the backdrop of an Ebola crisis. According to the WHO, 2025 recorded the highest number of reported cases in more than twenty-five years, but the current year is shaping up to be even more severe.

Why it matters

The scale of the epidemic, which adds to the Ebola crisis, is putting pressure on the Congolese health system.

1 source
Le Monde
Illustration : Typhon
Illustration : TyphonUser:Bibi Saint-Pol · Public domain · Wikimedia Commons
1 source
02

Typhoons strike East Asia under the effect of El Niño

Recent months have brought unusually violent weather conditions to East Asia, even for countries accustomed to typhoons. According to the BBC, the El Niño phenomenon is making the Pacific 'burn with fever'.

Why it matters

El Niño modifies the climate on a Pacific scale and intensifies extreme phenomena in several countries at once.

1 source
BBC World
Ecuador · 1 source
03

Flooding linked to El Niño in the Galápagos: one dead, over 2,000 displaced

Heavy rains linked to the El Niño phenomenon caused a flash flood on the island of Santa Cruz, in the Ecuadorian archipelago of the Galápagos, in the night from Friday to Saturday. It left one dead and affected over 2,000 people.

Why it matters

The event demonstrates the effect of El Niño on an isolated and fragile archipelago, already exposed to exceptional rainfall.

1 source
MercoPress
Ecuador
Brazil · 1 source
04

A tornado ravages Chapecó airport in Brazil

Spectacular images show the moment a powerful tornado struck Chapecó airport, in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.

Why it matters

The phenomenon affected a regional transport infrastructure.

1 source
Al Jazeera
Brazil
Canada · 2 sources
05

In Canada, a mother and daughter die, several grizzlies suspected

A mother and daughter died following a suspected grizzly attack in the Bella Coola region, British Columbia. Conservation authorities indicate that several grizzlies could be involved and that a hunt is underway.

Why it matters

Authorities are seeking to identify the animals involved, as the attack left two dead.

2 sources
BBC WorldSouth China Morning Post
Canada
France · 2 sources
06

A cyberattack affects blood storage in France

The French Blood Establishment has confirmed that one of its cold storage equipment providers was victim of a cybersecurity incident. According to the BBC, blood storage cold rooms were affected by cyberattacks.

Why it matters

The attack affects sensitive cold storage equipment and is part of a series of hacks targeting the cold chain.

2 sources
Courrier internationalBBC World
France

In brief

  • New ZealandDozens of pilot whales have beached on a beach on New Zealand's North Island; rescuers are attempting to return some survivors to the water.The Straits Times ↗
  • IndiaIn Delhi, authorities double parking fees and request 50% telework to combat pollution.Nikkei Asia ↗
  • MoroccoMorocco has been irrigating thousands of hectares of export crops in the Souss-Massa region since 2022 through seawater desalination.Le Monde ↗
  • HungaryHungary has made public the files of the communist secret police, revealing the names of the regime's informant network.BBC World ↗
  • United KingdomThe UK Parliament risks a 'catastrophic' failure if renovation of the Palace of Westminster continues to be delayed, warn MPs.South China Morning Post ↗
  • UruguayArgentinaPope Leo XIV begins Friday an eleven-day trip to Uruguay, Argentina and Peru.France 24 ↗

Geopolitics

Following the Republican defeat in the midterms, the war in Iran divides the Trump camp, while Joshua Wong is sentenced to ten additional years in prison in Hong Kong.

Illustration : White House
Illustration : White HouseMatt H. Wade · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Vance and Trump diverge on the war in Iran after Republican rout

United States, Iran · 4 sources

Following the defeat of Republicans in the midterm elections, Vice President J. D. Vance estimated that the war in Iran, triggered by Donald Trump, was the main reason for the debacle. Donald Trump for his part judges that the war 'was worth it' despite the electoral defeat. In Tehran, chief negotiator Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf claims that Americans voted 'no to war'. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced he would not seek to lead his party in the new Congress.

Why it matters

The war in Iran has become a subject of division within the Republican camp, as the 2028 presidential election approaches.

4 sources
BBC WorldFrance 24BBC WorldMercoPress
Illustration : Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited
Illustration : Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing LimitedYatyiebaiman SIIO · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Hong Kong · 4 sources
02

Joshua Wong sentenced to ten additional years in prison in Hong Kong

A Hong Kong court sentenced pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong to ten years in prison for collusion with foreign countries, under the national security law. He had pleaded guilty in September. He had already been detained for nearly six years and was due to be released in January.

Why it matters

The sentence significantly extends the detention of a figure in the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement.

4 sources
France 24Le MondeBBC WorldSouth China Morning Post
Hong Kong
South Korea · 3 sources
03

Seoul to deploy its navy near the Strait of Hormuz

South Korea will expand the operational zone of its Cheonghae anti-piracy unit and deploy a destroyer, a maritime patrol aircraft and a mine-clearing team near the Strait of Hormuz. Seoul also plans surface naval drones and underwater robots. According to the Straits Times, the decision follows pressure from Donald Trump to obtain support for the war in Iran.

Why it matters

Seoul is becoming more engaged in securing navigation in a strait at the heart of the conflict.

3 sources
France 24Le MondeThe Straits Times
South Korea
Ukraine, United States · 2 sources
04

Democrats want more transparency on Trump's links with Moscow

The Democratic majority in Congress intends to demand more transparency from the White House on its business projects with Moscow and trigger investigative commissions on the policy of support for Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelensky hopes that a Democratic Congress will bring more aid, and European officials are calling on the new Congress to increase pressure on Russia.

Why it matters

The change of majority in Washington could modify the balance of American policy towards Russia and Ukraine.

2 sources
Le MondeAl Jazeera
Ukraine United States
Israel · 3 sources
05

Israel: Herzog accepts results and opens consultations

Israeli President Isaac Herzog accepted the election results and opened consultations with parties to form a government, dealing a blow to Benjamin Netanyahu's efforts to discredit the elections. Arab parties denounce 'persecution' after one of their pillars was called into question by the Prime Minister's camp, which accuses them of massive fraud in the October 27 ballot.

Why it matters

Government formation is shaping up to be difficult after an election without a majority, against a backdrop of contested results.

3 sources
Al JazeeraLe MondeBBC World
Israel
North Korea · 4 sources
06

Kim Yo Jong rules out any dialogue with Washington after midterms

Following the American midterm elections, North Korea tested air defense missiles and conducted a cruise missile firing exercise. Kim Jong Un's powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, declared that Pyongyang had 'no need to sit face to face' with an American interlocutor described as 'hostile'. Analysts believe that the Democratic victory reduces the chances of a resumption of diplomacy.

Why it matters

Prospects for a summit with Washington are receding.

4 sources
Le MondeSouth China Morning PostThe Straits TimesThe Hindu
North Korea
Ukraine · 1 source
07

Ukraine: Russian strike kills at least 40, according to Kyiv

According to Kyiv, at least 40 people were killed and 30 others could be under the rubble following an attack Monday on a Ukrainian village. Ukraine claims that bodycam footage shows a Russian bombing in a 'double strike'.

Why it matters

The toll is mounting and Ukraine is highlighting images to document the attack.

1 source
BBC World
Ukraine
South Africa · 1 source
08

South Africa: counting underway, record 29.2 million registered voters

Vote counting is underway in South Africa, where a record 29.2 million people were registered on the electoral rolls.

Why it matters

The ballot is considered decisive for the country.

1 source
Al Jazeera
South Africa

In brief

  • SyriaSaudi ArabiaSyria and Saudi Arabia signed a defense cooperation agreement and agreed to 403 million dollars in loans.Al Jazeera ↗
  • El SalvadorHaitiEl Salvador deployed troops in Haiti; Haitian police found a vehicle used by four missing Salvadoran technicians.Al Jazeera ↗
  • United KingdomThe United Kingdom should present official apologies for its role in slavery, but refuses to consider reparations payments.Le Monde ↗
  • ArgentinaSpainIbero-American foreign ministers meeting in Madrid unanimously approved a statement supporting Argentina's claim to the Falkland Islands.MercoPress ↗
  • RussiaChinaRussian President Vladimir Putin enacted an agreement providing for a second standard-gauge railway at a key border crossing with China.South China Morning Post ↗
  • ChinaIn Beijing, former Politburo member Ma Xingrui is indicted for corruption for acts dating back to the late 1990s.South China Morning Post ↗
  • New ZealandNew Zealand votes Saturday November 7 in general elections whose outcome is judged too close to call.The Straits Times ↗
  • The European Parliament is concerned about fundamental rights in the face of plans to expand the mandate of the Frontex agency, which would support expulsions to return centers.Politico Europe ↗

Markets

European and American markets advance 1.4% to 2.2% following the midterms, the Hang Seng gains nearly 4%, but the Nikkei retreats 1.79%; gold rises 1.48% and Brent remains close to 94.7 dollars.

Illustration : Asunción
Illustration : AsunciónAnonymousUnknown author · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Paraguay: Ueno Bank closed, thousands of savers deprived of their deposits

Paraguay · 3 sources

The Central Bank of Paraguay took control of Ueno Bank, one of the country's largest, after its solvency ratio fell below 50% of the legal minimum, and froze all its assets and liabilities. The bank has 3 million customers. Protests erupted in the country. The Senate approved a reform of the deposit guarantee law allowing customers to receive an advance.

Why it matters

The collapse of a major banking player affects the savings of a large part of the population.

3 sources
Al JazeeraMercoPressMercoPress
Illustration : department store
Illustration : department storeBenh LIEU SONG (Flickr) · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Australia · 3 sources
02

David Jones, Australia's oldest department store, enters administration

Australia's oldest department store, David Jones, has entered administration after years of heavy losses. Store closures are expected and thousands of jobs are at risk. According to the BBC, the 38 physical stores and the online site continue to operate while administrators examine the business.

Why it matters

The fall of a 188-year-old brand threatens a large number of jobs.

3 sources
The Guardian (Australie)BBC BusinessThe Guardian (Australie)
Australia
France · 4 sources
03

National Assembly unanimously rejects 2027 State budget in first reading

The National Assembly rejected Wednesday, unanimously by all 458 voters, the 'revenue' part of the 2027 State budget bill, after substantially amending it. The text goes to the Senate in its original version. The Senate's general budget rapporteur is alarmed by a macroeconomic scenario that is 'truly reckless' and senators recommend freezing pensions above 1,500 euros.

Why it matters

The 2027 budget reaches the Senate without support from the Assembly, in a context of debt and stalled growth.

4 sources
France 24Les ÉchosLes ÉchosLes Échos
France
United States · 4 sources
04

Wall Street hails the Democratic wave; Asia retreats on fear of AI control

The main American indices closed in the green Wednesday and ten-year Treasury yields fell slightly, with markets anticipating positively stability and the status quo. A rebound of 750 billion dollars boosted major technology stocks, with Apple reaching a record. Values linked to data centers such as Micron and Vistra retreated instead, and Asian stock markets fell on fears of increased AI scrutiny. The dollar retreated and gold gained over 2%.

Why it matters

The Democratic victory redistributes market expectations, between general relief and concern for AI-related stocks.

4 sources
Le MondeThe HinduMercoPressMarketWatch
United States
United Kingdom · 2 sources
05

Sterling reaches its highest level since the Brexit referendum

Sterling has reached its highest level against a basket of currencies since the Brexit referendum, ten years ago. Most analysts also forecast a rise in Bank of England interest rates from 3.75% to 4%, the first in more than three years.

Why it matters

A rise in British rates, the first in more than three years, would weigh on borrowers, particularly households with mortgages.

2 sources
BBC BusinessBBC Business
United Kingdom
France · 1 source
06

Cyberattack at Crédit mutuel Arkéa: nearly 100 million euros diverted

An investigation has been opened following a diversion estimated at nearly 100 million euros at Crédit mutuel Arkéa. According to the bank, hackers used its own account to carry out transactions to other banking actors, then converted the money into cryptocurrency.

Why it matters

The attack directly targets a bank's accounts and illustrates the scale of financial hacking.

1 source
Le Monde Économie
France
France · 4 sources
07

In France, executive compensation falls for the first time since 2010

According to the Apec barometer, executive compensation fell this year, a first since 2010. Salaries are rising more slowly than inflation, which reduces purchasing power. Unions are calling for strikes and demonstrations Thursday on purchasing power and wage issues, with 70,000 police and gendarmes mobilized.

Why it matters

The decline in executive salaries and union mobilization are heightening the social climate around purchasing power.

4 sources
Les ÉchosLe Monde ÉconomieFrance 24Les Échos
France
France, United Kingdom · 2 sources
08

Business failures weigh on French budget and threaten Poundland

The government opened approximately 1 billion euros in additional credits at the end of 2026 for state-guaranteed loans, due to higher claims rates among companies supported at the time of Covid. In the United Kingdom, the owner of Poundland is holding decisive discussions as the store's bankruptcy looms.

Why it matters

Failures are increasing the public bill in France and threatening stores in the United Kingdom.

2 sources
Les ÉchosBBC Business
France United Kingdom

In brief

  • JapanSony raised its annual profit forecast thanks to the success of Spider-Man and progress in its video game activities.Nikkei Asia ↗
  • JapanToyota raised its profit forecast, supported by strong sales of hybrid vehicles despite the slowdown in China.Nikkei Asia ↗
  • IndonesiaIndonesian GDP growth reached 5.5% in the third quarter, supported by public spending.Nikkei Asia ↗
  • PhilippinesGasoline prices drive Philippine inflation to its highest level in years, under the effect of the Middle East conflict.The Straits Times ↗
  • Avolon finalized an order for 140 Boeing 737-10, the largest order for a single-aisle aircraft from the American manufacturer.La Tribune ↗
  • NamibiaAliko Dangote launched a fuel storage facility in Namibia to secure the supply of southern Africa.Al Jazeera ↗
  • GermanyThe Lufthansa group published record revenue in the third quarter of 2026, while other indicators are more mixed.La Tribune ↗
  • South KoreaSouth Korea is investigating 580 financial institutions after the leak of over 470,000 data from 37 companies in one month.South China Morning Post ↗

Closing prices on 5 November 2026

Last close recorded for the briefing of 5 November 2026 (crypto: price at publication time, in US dollars). Information only, not financial advice. All markets and charts →

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,177.89 ↑ +1.96 %
DAX 26,437.67 ↑ +2.22 %
FTSE 100 10,829.21 ↑ +1.79 %
S&P 500 7,688.62 ↑ +1.58 %
Nasdaq 25,736.51 ↑ +1.44 %
Nikkei 225 61,077.9 ↓ -1.79 %
Hang Seng 24,867.87 ↑ +3.96 %
Petrole Brent 94.74 ↑ +0.13 %
Gaz naturel 2.95 ↓ -0.24 %
Or 4,133.4 ↑ +1.48 %
EUR/USD 1.12 ↑ +0.35 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 80,528 USD ↑ +2.97 %
Ethereum 2,422.44 USD ↑ +5.27 %
BNB 713.25 USD ↑ +1.53 %
Solana 96.01 USD ↑ +3.04 %
XRP 1.31 USD ↑ +2.74 %

aucun seuil franchi, marchés crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 94.74 USD ↑ +0.13 %
Gaz naturel 2.95 USD ↓ -0.24 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 91% of normal levels data from 30 October
  • Ormuz — traffic at 74% of normal levels data from 30 October
  • Malacca — traffic at 106% of normal levels data from 30 October
  • Suez — traffic at 125% of normal levels data from 30 October
  • Panama — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 30 October
  • Bosphore — traffic at 88% of normal levels data from 30 October
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 86% of normal levels data from 30 October
  • Douvres — traffic at 108% of normal levels data from 30 October
  • Taïwan — traffic at 105% of normal levels data from 30 October
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 30 October

Source: Global Fishing Watch (AIS vessel presence)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

  • FUGO GROUND SERVICES INC — IRAN-EO13902
  • SHARMA, Suniel Kumar — IRAN-EO13902
  • SHAHID, Jaspreet Preeti — IRAN-EO13902
  • OCEANIEK TECHNOLOGIES INDIA — IRAN-EO13902
  • DHIMAN, Ashwani Kumar — IRAN-EO13902
  • SINGH, Ishwinder — IRAN-EO13902
  • ESWATINI MARITIME AFFAIRS AND INTERNATIONAL SHIP REGISTRY PTE. LTD. — IRAN-EO13902
  • PRECEPT TRENDS PRIVATE LIMITED — IRAN-EO13902
  • POLYNESIA MARITIME PRIVATE LIMITED — IRAN-EO13902
  • ALEXARYA FINSERV PRIVATE LIMITED — IRAN-EO13902
  • ALEXARYA MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT PRIVATE LIMITED — IRAN-EO13902
  • ARYAVART SHIP MANAGEMENT PRIVATE LIMITED — IRAN-EO13902
  • VIHARABOATING PRIVATE LIMITED — IRAN-EO13902
  • ARYAVART MARITIME AND EDUCATIONAL TRUST — IRAN-EO13902
  • DOMULLODZHANOV, Alisher — IRAN-CON-ARMS-EO

19,499 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,007 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

99 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

n0n

Delta Dental of Missouri

n0n claims to have compromised this organization.

n0n

The Container Store

n0n claims to have compromised this organization.

dark project

Custom Bakehouse

dark project claims to have compromised this organization.

majinahanashi

Magasin du Nord (Magasin)

majinahanashi claims to have compromised this organization.

ransomhouse

TFG London

ransomhouse claims to have compromised this organization.

play

Aripack

play claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Netherlands — traffic at 8% of normal levels
  • Algeria — traffic at 21% of normal levels
  • China — traffic at 33% of normal levels

The world in figures

The background to that day's news: public data (conflicts, earthquakes, commodities, agenda). They are not part of the colours or the risk index.

Coming up

as of 5 November 2026

Major central bank decisions and national elections in the following weeks, as known that day.

  • 5 Novembersame day Grenada · Parliament
  • 7 NovemberD+2 New Zealand · Parliament
  • 15 NovemberD+10 Cape Verde · President
  • 29 NovemberD+24 Spain · Senate and Congress of Deputies
  • 29 NovemberD+24 Switzerland · Referendums
  • 5 DecemberD+30 Gambia · President
  • 5 DecemberD+30 6 December Northern Cyprus · Assembly of the Republic
  • 9 DecemberD+34 Fed: interest rate decision
  • 9 DecemberD+34 Fiji · Constitutional referendum

Source : Fed, ECB, Wikipedia (electoral calendar)

Armed conflict

September 2026

13,286 estimated deaths · 43 countries

  • Ukraine 6,202
  • Yemen 2,924
  • Pakistan 667
  • Ethiopia 609
  • Nigeria 451
  • Sudan 277
  • Mexico 262

Central estimate, provisional monthly data; change versus the previous month.

Source : UCDP, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0) ↗

Earthquakes

previous 7 days

94 of magnitude 4.5+ · 4 of 6+

  • 6.4 southeast of Easter Island 29 October
  • 6.2 Vanuatu 29 October
  • 6.0 Vanuatu 1 November
  • 6.0 Japan 31 October
  • 5.4 Colombia 3 November

Source : USGS (public domain) ↗

Commodities

October 2026

Monthly average world prices in US dollars; indices 2010 = 100.

Level1 month1 year
Energy160+7.1 %+89.3 %
Food122−1.8 %+14.7 %
Fertilizers148+0.8 %+6.2 %
Base metals162−2.6 %+24.0 %
Precious metals318−6.2 %+3.3 %
Detailed prices
Level1 month1 year
Brent crude125 $/bbl+7.0 %+93.2 %
Natural gas (Europe)28.50 $/MMBtu+12.1 %+161.7 %
Wheat317 $/t−8.6 %+37.3 %
Maize227 $/t−5.5 %+14.3 %
Rice489 $/t+1.5 %+37.4 %
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9 %−3.4 %
Arabica coffee7.40 $/kg+1.9 %−16.9 %
Copper14,508 $/t+0.2 %+35.1 %
Gold4,105 $/oz−5.0 %+1.2 %

Source : World Bank, Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0) ↗

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