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Horizon — 9 November 2026

Monday 9 November 2026

World Geopolitics Markets

Briefing for 9 November 2026. Poland: the Krakow shooter died in hospital. Markets: Bitcoin $73,954 · VIX 25.64 · CAC 40 8,139 · Brent $96.72 · S&P 500 7,377 · Hang Seng 24,479

The last thirty days

World

The Krakow shooter is dead, a railway collision kills seven in Egypt and New Delhi's air becomes toxic after Diwali, while COP31 opens in Turkey.

Illustration : Old town Market Square in Krakow
Illustration : Old town Market Square in KrakowIngo Mehling · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Poland: the Krakow shooter died in hospital

Poland · 4 sources

The 24-year-old man, who had shot six people on Krakow's Main Square, died from his injuries. Police say they found three bodies of family members at his home. The shooter was, according to reports, fascinated by far-right ideologies.

Why it matters

Polish media believe that a chapter is closing in a country spared from terrorism since the beginning of the century.

Illustration : Antalya (Turkey)
Illustration : Antalya (Turkey)Saffron Blaze · CC BY-SA 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Turkey · 4 sources
02

COP31: opening in Antalya, Turkey bets on electrification

COP31 opens in Antalya and is to bring together more than 100,000 people for two weeks. Turkey wants to place electrification at the top of the climate agenda, with a target of 35% of global energy demand by 2035. The energy crisis linked to the war in the Middle East weighs on discussions.

Why it matters

The summit must implement measures already adopted, while the UN deems the financing deficit staggering.

Turkey
Egypt · 3 sources
03

Egypt: a train collision kills seven

Two trains travelling in the same direction collided near Giza, in the Al-Ayyat district. Several wagons derailed and fell into a ravine. The Health Ministry reports seven dead and 125 injured.

Why it matters

The accident raises questions about railway safety in Egypt.

Egypt
India · 3 sources
04

New Delhi suffocates under smog after Diwali

After Diwali fireworks, India's capital woke up under thick smog. In some neighbourhoods, toxic air exceeds 58 times the daily limit recommended by the WHO. More than 30 million residents are exposed.

Why it matters

Pollution poses an increased health risk to millions of people.

India
Greece · 1 source
05

Greece: twelve migrants found dead off Crete

Coast guards recovered twelve bodies from a vessel approximately 15 nautical miles from the port of Kaloi Limenes. Eighteen other people were rescued, as well as dozens of others in two separate incidents off Crete.

Why it matters

The tragedy illustrates the persistent danger of crossings to Europe.

1 source
Greece
China · 2 sources
06

China: a building fire kills fourteen

A fire broke out on Sunday around 5 p.m. in a high-rise building in northern China. Fourteen people died and dozens of others were hospitalized. The cause remains to be determined.

Why it matters

It is a heavy toll, with dozens of injured still hospitalized.

China
Senegal · 1 source
07

Senegal: at least 35 dead in the sinking of a pirogue

At least 35 people died in the sinking of a migrant pirogue in Senegal. Thousands of people have been attempting for years to reach Europe via the Atlantic route, on overcrowded and often dilapidated vessels.

Why it matters

The Atlantic route remains one of the deadliest for migrants.

1 source
Senegal
Palestine · 1 source
08

Gaza: hundreds of thousands of Palestinians exposed to flooding

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are exposed to flooding in the Gaza Strip. Israel continues to block the entry of mobile homes, and tents do not protect them from rain.

Why it matters

Winter aggravates an already critical humanitarian situation for the displaced.

1 source
Palestine

In brief

Geopolitics

Riyadh's financial district is targeted by the Houthis, Europeans and the United States meet at the G7 on Ukraine and Iran, and Israel's political future hinges on Eisenkot.

Illustration : Riyadh Province (Saudi Arabia)
Illustration : Riyadh Province (Saudi Arabia)European Space Agency · CC BY-SA 3.0 igo · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Riyadh: an Aramco tower damaged by Houthi attack

Saudi Arabia, Yemen · 4 sources

An attack on Riyadh's financial district on Sunday, November 8, damaged a tower of oil giant Aramco without casualties, according to images authenticated by BBC Verify. The Houthis launched new strikes on Saudi Arabia. Riyadh turns to Syria: approximately 600 Syrian special forces fighters are to be deployed to Saudi Arabia within the week.

Why it matters

The attack targets the economic heart of the kingdom and marks an escalation in the conflict between Riyadh and the Houthis.

Illustration : Paris (France)
Illustration : Paris (France)Yann Caradec from Paris, France · CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
France · 4 sources
02

G7 in Paris: Ukraine, Iran and Lebanon on the agenda

Foreign ministers of the G7 meet Monday in France with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Ukraine, Iran and Lebanon are at the heart of discussions. Marco Rubio reports progress on the « security architecture » of post-war Ukraine and judges the war against Iran unpopular but necessary to avert the nuclear threat.

Why it matters

The results of the American midterms could alter Washington's diplomacy as negotiations on Ukraine resume.

France
Israel · 4 sources
03

Israel: Eisenkot invites Likud to join his coalition

Gadi Eisenkot, officially tasked with forming the government, calls for unity in the face of a « historic crisis » for which he holds Benjamin Netanyahu responsible. He invites Likud and the Religious Zionist Party to participate in a coalition. Coming second in the October 27 legislative elections but theoretically supported by a majority of deputies, he has four weeks to gather 61 seats.

Why it matters

The path to a majority remains uncertain, at the cost of delicate alliances.

Israel
Ukraine · 4 sources
04

Ukraine: new Russian strikes and resumption of talks in Abu Dhabi

A Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure left more than 600,000 people without electricity. Russia also struck power plants and a ship in the Black Sea. The Zaporizhzhia power plant again depends on backup power. Talks between Russians, Ukrainians and Americans are to take place in Abu Dhabi, where Norway's prime minister doubts that Vladimir Putin wants peace.

Why it matters

The strikes target the energy network as winter approaches, as negotiations resume.

Ukraine
United States · 4 sources
05

Trump acknowledges deportation policy was « too harsh »

In an interview with CBS, Donald Trump says his administration's policy on deporting immigrants was « too harsh ». He states this after the Republican defeat in the midterms, having appointed Stephen Miller, architect of this policy, as chief of staff just days ago. The Justice Minister says he is ready to defend administration members targeted by Democratic investigations.

Why it matters

The president softens his rhetoric facing a Congress where the opposition is preparing investigations.

United States
Iraq · 2 sources
06

Iraq: drone attack paralyzes Khor Mor gas field

A drone attack halted production at the Khor Mor gas field in Iraqi Kurdistan and caused widespread power cuts. According to an engineer, a gas storage site was hit and the crew had to take shelter.

Why it matters

The attack cuts power to a large part of northern Iraq.

Iraq
Bangladesh · 4 sources
07

Bangladesh: Sheikh Hasina requests new passport

The former Prime Minister, a refugee in India for two years, has requested a new passport and new identity card to be able to return. She had promised a return in December. The Foreign Ministry is examining her request.

Why it matters

It is the clearest sign of an imminent return of the former leader.

Bangladesh

In brief

Markets

European stock markets decline (DAX -1.92%), the VIX remains high at 25.64 and Brent oil holds near 97 dollars, in a climate marked by the Nvidia affair.

Theme illustration : Silicon wafer (semiconductors)
Theme illustration : Silicon wafer (semiconductors)Rob Bulmahn · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Top story
01

Nvidia opens investigation into Jensen Huang

United States, China · 4 sources

Nvidia's chief acknowledged an extramarital affair with a woman whom American intelligence considers a Beijing spy. The board of directors launches an independent investigation and Jensen Huang remains in position. Donald Trump defends the executive, while Chinese press Global Times rejects espionage accusations.

Why it matters

Nvidia, valued at 4.5 trillion dollars, manufactures chips essential to AI, at the heart of rivalry with China.

Illustration : Hôtel Matignon
Illustration : Hôtel MatignonGuilhem Vellut from Paris, France · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
France · 4 sources
02

France: social conference at Matignon on wages

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu receives Monday unions, employers and youth representatives after weeks of protests. The government says it is ready to raise the SMIC, while businesses ask for relief on labour costs. Without growth, they will struggle to raise wages.

Why it matters

Work remuneration and a possible boost to the SMIC directly concern millions of employees.

France
Japan · 2 sources
03

Asian markets: rebound after tech fall

Asian stock markets rebound after the fall in technology stocks caused by the Democratic victory in the American midterm elections. The Nikkei gains 2.33% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.09% on Friday.

Why it matters

The rebound comes after a week of high volatility in AI stocks.

Japan
1 source
04

ECB: Klaas Knot and Pablo Hernandez de Cos candidates to succeed Lagarde

The two officially designated candidates to succeed Christine Lagarde at the head of the European Central Bank are Dutchman Klaas Knot and Spaniard Pablo Hernandez de Cos.

Why it matters

The future head of the ECB will set monetary policy for the eurozone.

1 source
Paraguay · 3 sources
05

Paraguay: the collapse of Ueno Bank weakens millions of savers

Paraguay's central bank took control of Ueno Bank, an online bank, leaving nearly three million Paraguayans without access to their balance. The affair led to the removal of President Santiago Peña, placed in preventive detention.

Why it matters

The bankruptcy relaunches the debate on banking supervision and the link between political power and central bank.

Paraguay
Netherlands · 2 sources
06

Amsterdam: approximately 200,000 protesters against Israel, according to organizers

According to organizers, approximately 200,000 people protested to demand stricter commercial sanctions and an end to arms sales to Israel. Protesters also called for an official statement qualifying Israel's action in Gaza as genocide.

Why it matters

Pressure is mounting on the Dutch government over its relations with Israel.

Netherlands
South Korea · 1 source
07

South Korea: Coupang fined 284 million dollars

Coupang is sanctioned for abuse of dominant position in meal delivery. The company deems the penalty excessive.

Why it matters

It is a heavy fine for a major player in e-commerce.

South Korea
France · 1 source
08

Airbus A220: Air France receives its 60th aircraft

Air France received its 60th Airbus A220, named Mimizan and rolled off the assembly line in Mirabel, Canada.

Why it matters

This modern fleet is presented as a very profitable short-haul aircraft for the airline.

1 source
France

In brief

Closing prices on 9 November 2026

Last close recorded for the briefing of 9 November 2026 (crypto: price at publication time, in US dollars). Information only, not financial advice. All markets and charts →

Today's indicators

Deterministic data, calculated by threshold or taken as-is from official sources — never judged by the model.

Markets

Closing prices and changes
ValueCloseChange
CAC 40 8,139 ↓ -0.81 %
DAX 25,820.36 ↓ -1.92 %
FTSE 100 10,673.94 ↓ -1.01 %
S&P 500 7,376.86 ↑ +0.31 %
Nasdaq 24,579.42 ↑ +1.09 %
Nikkei 225 58,775.5 ↑ +2.33 %
Hang Seng 24,478.52 ↓ -0.01 %
VIX 25.64 ↓ -9.01 %
Petrole Brent 96.72 ↓ -1.63 %
Gaz naturel 2.99 ↓ -0.13 %
Or 4,110.1 ↑ +0.86 %
EUR/USD 1.12 ↓ -0.50 %

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Crypto

Prices and changes of major cryptocurrencies
ValuePrice24h change
Bitcoin 73,954 USD ↓ -2.40 %
Ethereum 2,090.99 USD ↓ -6.38 %
BNB 675.53 USD ↓ -3.15 %
Solana 85.46 USD ↓ -3.98 %
XRP 1.08 USD ↓ -6.61 %

aucun seuil franchi, marchés crypto calmes

General, non-personalized information. Does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell.

Supply chain

A combined reading of traffic through strategic straits and energy prices: two signals of the same possible tension on global supply chains. The more severe of the two prevails.

Energy prices and changes
ValuePriceChange
Petrole Brent 96.72 USD ↓ -1.63 %
Gaz naturel 2.99 USD ↓ -0.13 %
  • Bab el-Mandeb — traffic at 123% of normal levels data from 5 November
  • Ormuz — traffic at 100% of normal levels data from 5 November
  • Malacca — traffic at 94% of normal levels data from 5 November
  • Suez — traffic at 102% of normal levels data from 5 November
  • Panama — traffic at 97% of normal levels data from 5 November
  • Bosphore — traffic at 69% of normal levels data from 5 November
  • Gibraltar — traffic at 109% of normal levels data from 5 November
  • Douvres — traffic at 113% of normal levels data from 5 November
  • Taïwan — traffic at 99% of normal levels data from 5 November
  • Cap de Bonne-Espérance — traffic at 103% of normal levels data from 5 November

Source: Global Fishing Watch (AIS vessel presence)

International sanctions

Daily movement on the consolidated lists of OFAC (US Treasury) and the UN Security Council: the total almost never moves from one day to the next — the signal is the new entries since the last reading.

No new entries since the last reading.

19,563 entries tracked at OFAC (US Treasury) · 1,007 entries tracked at the UN

Cyber

57 ransomware claim(s) recorded worldwide over the last 48 hours (source: RansomLook). These are claims made by criminal groups on their own leak sites, never independently verified.

panzer

Grupa ABS

panzer claims to have compromised this organization.

n0n

Expedia Group, Inc.

n0n claims to have compromised this organization.

black x

Court Square Group

black x claims to have compromised this organization.

anubis

Cuomo LLC

anubis claims to have compromised this organization.

deadlock

Fidex

deadlock claims to have compromised this organization.

deadlock

NoseTea

deadlock claims to have compromised this organization.

Connectivity

Significant internet outages detected by IODA (Georgia Tech) over the last 48h.

  • Netherlands — traffic at 6% of normal levels
  • Burkina Faso — traffic at 10% of normal levels

The world in figures

The background to that day's news: public data (conflicts, earthquakes, commodities, agenda). They are not part of the colours or the risk index.

Coming up

as of 9 November 2026

Major central bank decisions and national elections in the following weeks, as known that day.

  • 15 NovemberD+6 Cape Verde · President
  • 29 NovemberD+20 Spain · Senate and Congress of Deputies
  • 29 NovemberD+20 Switzerland · Referendums
  • 5 DecemberD+26 Gambia · President
  • 5 DecemberD+26 6 December Northern Cyprus · Assembly of the Republic
  • 9 DecemberD+30 Fed: interest rate decision
  • 9 DecemberD+30 Fiji · Constitutional referendum
  • 13 DecemberD+34 Transnistria · President
  • 17 DecemberD+38 ECB: interest rate decision

Source : Fed, ECB, Wikipedia (electoral calendar)

Armed conflict

September 2026

13,286 estimated deaths · 43 countries

  • Ukraine 6,202
  • Yemen 2,924
  • Pakistan 667
  • Ethiopia 609
  • Nigeria 451
  • Sudan 277
  • Mexico 262

Central estimate, provisional monthly data; change versus the previous month.

Source : UCDP, Uppsala University (CC BY 4.0) ↗

Earthquakes

previous 7 days

82 of magnitude 4.5+ · 3 of 6+

  • 6.4 Solomon Islands 9 November
  • 6.1 Japan 6 November
  • 6.1 Fiji region 5 November
  • 5.8 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge 7 November
  • 5.7 Japan 9 November

Source : USGS (public domain) ↗

Commodities

October 2026

Monthly average world prices in US dollars; indices 2010 = 100.

Level1 month1 year
Energy160+7.1 %+89.3 %
Food122−1.8 %+14.7 %
Fertilizers148+0.8 %+6.2 %
Base metals162−2.6 %+24.0 %
Precious metals318−6.2 %+3.3 %
Detailed prices
Level1 month1 year
Brent crude125 $/bbl+7.0 %+93.2 %
Natural gas (Europe)28.50 $/MMBtu+12.1 %+161.7 %
Wheat317 $/t−8.6 %+37.3 %
Maize227 $/t−5.5 %+14.3 %
Rice489 $/t+1.5 %+37.4 %
Cocoa5.75 $/kg−2.9 %−3.4 %
Arabica coffee7.40 $/kg+1.9 %−16.9 %
Copper14,508 $/t+0.2 %+35.1 %
Gold4,105 $/oz−5.0 %+1.2 %

Source : World Bank, Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0) ↗

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